While Brittney Griner and Odyssey Sims have been the focal points of the Baylor Lady Bears’ success over the past two seasons, the entire senior class is talented enough to be rated as 2013 WNBA Draft prospects in Ed Bemiss’ National Sports Rankings player ratings.
So what chances do they have to actually be successful? Let’s take a closer look.
Baylor’s “other” seniors
Both Hayden and Madden have similar profiles as draft prospects: big, efficient guards with Hayden being the more efficient distributor (3.24 pure point rating) and Madden the more efficient scorer (60% true shooting percentage). Both have a combination of distributing and scoring efficiency numbers that meet the standards for a solid point guard prospect, meaning they’re skilled players.
The caveat for both as prospects is actually related to their star teammates: both have low usage rates (Hayden: 15.60%; Madden, 13.87%). An article by ESPN’s Mechelle Voepel a month ago described Madden’s development into a defensive stopper as the byproduct of practicing against former Lady Bears player Melissa Jones and coincidentally both of these players have very similar profiles as draft prospects: good size, really efficient, low usage players who complement a pair of stars extremely well. The question for players like that has always been what they’re moved out of that role as complementary college player. And in most cases, low usage guards struggle to find their way onto a WNBA roster.
Fittingly, Pope and Williams also have extremely similar draft profiles: 6’1″ forwards who are strong offensive rebounders (Pope: 12.42%; Williams: 16.31%) and score efficiently enough that they make the Lady Bears extremely hard to defend.
The red flag for both of them is that they’re undersized forwards: over the past few years, forwards under 6’1″ haven’t fared well in terms of getting on rosters. In addition, Pope has a pure point rating of -8.03 due to a high turnover ratio, likely in part due to being such a high usage player (28.55%) – it’s very possible that she just has the ball in her hands more than she should and wouldn’t have as much problem on the next level, should she make a roster.
A less-heralded trio from Florida State
Davis has a solid profile – an solid scorer (58.52% true shooting percentage), solid rebounder (10.67% offensive rebounding percentage), and decent free throw rate (46.09%) – though she doesn’t stand out in any one particular way. The one possible red flag is a low pure point rating (-5.10) – the result of a low assist rate – but overall she’s not a bad prospect for a team interested in giving a post player a look.
Deluzio has alternated between point and off guard at FSU, but is clearly more comfortable as a shooter and her statistics reflect that. She has solid scoring numbers with a 47.84% 2-point percentage and 37.5% 3-point percentage. There aren’t any major weaknesses to her game statistically, but she rates out as something of a pure scorer and as an only average usage (19.94%) player the question is what else she’d bring to a team at the next level.
Whereas Deluzio’s problem is a low usage rate, Rodriguez might be a slightly better prospect due to her usage rate (22.46%) and a slightly higher free throw rate (31.04%), which shows that she might be able to create her own shot a bit more effectively.
The red flag for Rodriguez is a very low offensive rebounding rate (1.36%), which doesn’t usually bode well for guards in terms of their ability to compete physically at the next level.
Other prospects to watch
Sam Ostarello, F, 6’2″, Purdue Boilermakers
What probably stands out to most people about Ostarello is her rebounding numbers: she averages nearly 10 rebounds per game, which is impressive. The problem is that most of the rebounds are on the defensive end and her offensive rebound percentage is a more modest 9.84%. That combined with a low scoring efficiency (50.83% true shooting percentage) don’t bode well for her future as a pro.
Alyssia Brewer, F, 6’3″, UCLA Bruins
Brewer is a solid rebounder (11.20% offensive rebounding percentage) and played outstanding defense in the Pac-12 tournament, but her low scoring efficiency (50.77% true shooting percentage) and high turnover rate (17.02%) make it hard to see how well she projects to the next level.
Carmen Tyson-Thomas, G, 5’9″, Syracuse Orange
What immediately jumps out about Tyson-Thomas is an extremely good offensive rebounding rate for her size (11.73%). That combined with a 4.1% steal percentage reflects a player who is able to turn her athleticism into production. And while her 29.5% 3-point percentage might be a concern, her 2-point percentage of 45.97% is right on the border of a successful prospect.
Elasthier Hall, G, 5’11”, Syracuse Orange
Similarly, Hall’s an athlete who can get things done with a high steal percentage (4.39%), a good free throw rate (39.10%), and a solid offensive rebounding rate (6.57%). The red flags are a low 2-point percentage (35.84%) and low pure point rating (-5.66), not good signs for a prospect.
Prospects we’ve discussed before
For more on the 2013 WNBA Draft, visit our prospects storystream.
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