Here’s what I came with after some number-crunching (or whatever you’d call it). Corrections, additions, clarifications welcome:
– Clinches third with a win against Sky Blue on Saturday. (38 points)
– With a tie (36) or loss (35):
– Misses out if Chicago wins both and Portland wins against Seattle.
– Finishes fourth if just one drops points.
– Finishes third if Chicago and Portland both drop points in their remaining games.
– Misses out regardless of own result if Washington wins and Chicago wins both.
– Would claim third with win (36) if Washington and Chicago both drop points.
– Would claim fourth with win if Chicago wins both, Washington doesn’t win, or if Washington wins and Chicago doesn’t win both.
– With tie (34), eliminated unless Chicago gets 3 standings points (goes to tiebreaker) or fewer (4th). Sky Blue also potentially in picture if they win out.
– With loss (33), eliminated unless Chicago gets 2 standings points (goes to tiebreaker) or fewer (4th). Sky Blue and Flash also potentially in picture if they win out.
– With two wins, in playoffs (37): 4th if Washington wins, otherwise 3rd.
– With win and tie (35): eliminated if Portland wins, otherwise 4th.
– With win and loss (34): eliminated if Portland wins, to tiebreaker if they draw, 4th if they lose. Sky Blue also a factor.
– With two ties (33): eliminated if Portland wins or ties, to tiebreaker if they lose. Sky Blue, Flash, also factor.
– Eliminated with any lesser result.
Western New York:
– Eliminated with anything other than 2 wins (33).
– Eliminated if Portland ties or wins.
– Eliminated if Chicago gets 3 or more points.
– Can possibly finish 4th if Portland loses and Chicago gets 2 or fewer points.
– Eliminated with anything other than 3 wins (34). (Assuming that Houston game will be made up if needed.)
– Eliminated if Portland wins.
– Eliminated if Chicago gets 4 or more points.
– Can possibly finish 4th if Portland loses or ties and Chicago gets 3 or fewer points.