I never watch non-NCAA tournament college basketball. I know perhaps five college basketball players by name. I get my basketball fix from my Cleveland Cavaliers and from dropping sweet baby hooks on the heads of arthritic older men in my pick-up basketball league.
LeBron James and the exploitation of the elderly is all I need.
So, when tourney time comes around, I’m conflicted. I COULD try to read a bunch of previews from a number of “experts”, determine the best teams, pick Kansas to choke and then fill out the rest of my bracket. Normally, that’s what I do.
This year however, I went in a different direction. I heard the Prediction Machine guy on the radio. He said after 50,000 runs of the machine, Kansas came out on top with the greatest chance of winning at about 15 percet. While 15 percent represented the most likely winner, historically it represented a wide-open field as normally the favorite is expected to win 20 to 25 percent of the time.
Before the tourney started, PM published the likelihood of tournament victory for all 64 teams. Seeing as how I know nothing about college ball, I was thinking I couldn’t pick a conventional favorite to win because I wouldn’t get enough points in the early rounds to place in the money. I needed to pick an underdog – an underdog with a chance (at least according to some computer). Prediction Machine seemed like the perfect place for me to go to construct my bracket.
I clicked over and scanned the probability list and saw that Baylor had an 11-ish percent chance to win. Baylor? I don’t know where Baylor is; I don’t know what Baylor’s mascot is. I can’t name one of their players, but I’ve got 30 bucks on them winning it all. Having heard no Baylor buzz from any of my buddies or any of the talking heads on TV, I assumed I’d have them as victors all to myself. And I do – in both pools.
My bracket is strong. So long as Baylor keeps facing the St. Mary’s of the world, I’ll be all set and rolling in the money.
All that’s left to say is GO . . . BAY – CATS!??