OK. This list features everyone, by past precedent, who is still alive on the bubble and not locked in on the field. This is my best guess as to every one of those teams’ status going into the final seven days of the season before Selection Monday.
In descending RPI Rank…
Missouri – Good matchup in SEC Tournament, goodish profile. Not going to fall far enough to be in danger with a loss.
Clemson – No ACC Tournament game and pretty high up the rankings with solid profile. Probably in easily unless bubble contracts like crazy.
Florida Gulf Coast – Might divide the room if they don’t get the auto bid. Are wins against Arizona and La Salle enough? I wouldn’t want to find out.
Rutgers – Win at Penn State should be enough, but if they lose against Iowa on Wednesday, it’d make for four losses in five. Would they fall far enough to worry? I doubt it.
Boston University – Profile’s not bad, but it isn’t great. Would love to stay above the bubble zone, but probably not going to happen unless they lose to Colgate in the conference tournament final. Not optimistic on at-large hopes.
Texas – Profile’s not bad and, more importantly, they’ve got a great matchup in the Big XII Tournament, so it’s tough seeing them out at this point.
Michigan – Hello, have you noticed Michigan has one positive result against an RPI Top 50 team all season? Have you noticed the Wolverines have won one of their last five? Finishing third in strong ranked league helps, but they’ll be sweating with a loss to Minnesota.
Colgate – They need to get to the final of the Patriot League Tournament…at the very least. They probably have to finish above the bubble, because they aren’t getting in if they’re on it.
Georgia – See Michigan with even worse momentum and league finish but with the caveat of an extra win against an RPI Top 20 team. They’re 1-4-0 in their last five though and will have lost four in a row if they lose to Arkansas. Win on Monday and they’re in, lose and they might be one match short. Again.
USC – Three away wins against RPI Top 18 teams? They’re in. May even gain ground if they lose to UCLA thanks to Bruins’ RPI, other teams’ inevitable fall.
Colorado – They’re right on the cutline. Honestly, their best bet is to just win against Utah and hope they end up above the bubble scrutiny line. Profile isn’t terrible, but it’s not great either. A loss would be bad for their hopes though.
Arizona State – Can’t see them falling too much if they lose to Arizona. They have a win against Texas A&M and draw against UCLA. And a draw with Washington State. Can you see a team with that profile being left out? I can’t.
Arkansas – They need a win or the numbers to move in their direction, which isn’t impossible given Oklahoma State and Kentucky’s form as of late. A loss to Georgia would be bad for head-to-head bubble implications more than anything else. May need two wins if bubble tightens up.
Georgetown – Tough seeing a team with draws at West Virginia and DePaul getting left out. Remain a bit vulnerable though thanks to some of their lower ranked brethren, so winning one Big East Tournament match wouldn’t be worst idea.
Hofstra – Only chance they have is to end up above the bubble zone. That’d take a win over James Madison in the semi-final and a shootout loss to Northeastern (or maybe William & Mary) in the final. Odds of that are very slim.
Oklahoma -They have two RPI Top 10 wins and a further win over Kansas, who is RPI #19. They face the Jayhawks again in Kansas City, and it’s tough seeing them take enough blows in the RPI to knock them from the field.
Santa Clara – They have to win next week against Saint Mary’s (CA) and hope things go haywire ahead of them in the RPI, pushing them up above the bubble zone. If they’re on the bubble, they aren’t getting in.
Boston College – Root for Colgate, Northeastern, Illinois State, Harvard, and Notre Dame during Championship Week. That’s about all BC can do having not made the ACC Tournament. I’d probably say it’s less than 50-50 though.
Illinois State – No chance at an at-large bid.
Buffalo – None for them either.
Memphis – They gagged against East Carolina in the AAC Tournament and are probably going to pay for it. Really have to hope it ends up being a South Florida-UConn AAC Tournament final and that the bubble turns weak.
San Diego – Right on the cutline. Won’t be there if they don’t beat Loyola Marymount. May need a break or two to go their way ahead of them in the RPI.
Harvard – No chance at an at-large bid.
San Diego State – Yeah, they really want that head-to-head loss to San Diego back. Will be big Michigan fans this week. Need at least one win in Mountain West Tournament and may need the auto bid.
Alabama – Have to beat Tennessee on Monday. May need another win too, but their profile isn’t bad for their ranking.
Tennessee – Profile is turrrrible despite their feel good Cinderella Story. RPI Top 50 results are a draw at Auburn and win at home against Missouri, which ain’t gonna be enough. Need to beat Alabama (to ensure finishing at .500) and get a result against Florida, so the odds aren’t great.
Miami (OH) – Toast. Lost to Northern Illinois on penalties in the MAC Tournament quarterfinals.
Northeastern – Won against Boston University on the road, but that’s far from enough. They need the auto bid.
Minnesota – Alive! Barely. They have one and only one RPI Top 50 result, a win against Rutgers at home. Need two wins at Big Ten Tournament. At least.
TCU – Oh, that Iowa State loss. They are very much a team with just one strong result on their profile, but it’s a doozy: the draw with West Virginia. They’ve got another shot at the Mountaineers on Wednesday and need another result. If they get it, they could have a real shot.
North Texas – No chance at an at-large bid.
Utah – The longest of long shots. Profile is solid with highlight being draw with Stanford, but they’re some ways off the bubble. Have to win at Colorado and pray things go their way in the RPI and in the selection room.
BYU – Won the WCC title and auto bid on Saturday night. Battling for a home game in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, may need to beat Pepperdine next week.
Duke – Finished season under .500 with loss to Florida State.