Setting the Stage

With defending champion Salina Kosgei and runner-up Dire Tune returning to Hopkinton to chase the laurel wreath, this year’s women’s race promises to be an exciting fight to the finish. In an all-out sprint down Boylston Street last year, Kosgei outstretched defending champ Tune by one second to produce the closest finish in the race’s 113-year history. In an historical nail-biting duel in 2008, it was Tune who snapped the tape two seconds ahead of Russian Alevtina Biktimirova to claim her first Boston Marathon victory. While Kosgei and Tune stand eager to win again, relative newcomer Teyba Erkesso and seasoned veteran Lidiya Grigoryeva might have something to say about that.

Unlike Kara Goucher’s media-frenzied Boston debut last year, no American woman shines as a contender. So while the women’s race lacks the media blitz and fire-power of the men’s field, headlined by Americans Ryan Hall and Meb Keflezighi, several of the women vying for the top prize are ripe for breakthroughs and fast times. This means that another storied sprint finish may be on the horizon, though it is unlikely that anyone will threaten Margaret Okayo’s 2002 course record, 2:20:43. Tune and Erkesso, fresh off of 1:07 half marathons in February, certainly have the leg speed to do some real course record damage, but whether or not they crank up the pace depends on how the race unfolds.

If the headwinds reappear like they did in 2009, then the women’s race may crawl out at a pedestrian pace and turn into a tactical show. At one point last year, four U.S. women, including master ace Colleen De Reuck, took the reigns and led the charge. If Monday’s race repeats those tactics, a few dark horses may edge their way onto the podium, making this year’s winner nearly impossible to predict. Four-time champion Catherine Ndereba and marathon neophyte Mestawet Tufa withdrew due to injuries, but American Paige Higgins, hoping to break 2:30, joins the field as a last minute addition. Higgins missed the 2009 Boston Marathon due to knee surgery, but she is hungry again in 2010; she kicked off the season with a bang, running 2:33:22 in Houston. Although Higgins is an unlikely candidate for a top-three finish, she should cross the line as the first American.

Top 6 Women in the field

1. Dire Tune – Tune makes her third Boston appearance on Monday, and on a course where inexperience tends to be a harsh liability, she stands out as a Boston veteran. Taking into consideration that Tune’s previous two finishes in 2008 (1st) and 2009 (2nd) remain the two closest finishes in the race’s history, Tune knows how to put on a show and how to fight her way down the homestretch. Without question, she will be hungry to reclaim her championship. Tune enters Hopkinton fresh from a 1:07:58 half marathon in February – a time not far off from her 1:07:18 PR set in 2009. Her best time in Boston is 2:25:25 and her current PR is 2:24:40 (Houston 2008). Her half-marathon speed suggests that she can go even faster. Assuming she is rested and healthy, Tune should contend for the title and finish on the podium.

2. Teyba Erkesso – Erkesso, a relative newcomer to the marathon distance, could give Tune a run for her money. She beat Tune this February in the Ras Al Khaimah (RAK) Half-Marathon, clocking 1:07:41, and she broke Tune’s course record in Houston, clocking 2:23:53 in January. Given her 2010 racing so far, she may be in the best shape of her career. Erkesso seems to favor fast races over tactical ones; she hung with the leaders in Chicago in an extremely tactical race, but she never found her rhythm and faded in the final miles. If Erkesso charges the gate and comes out on fire, then the rest of the ladies in the field are in for a real footrace. She wants to win, and though her inexperience in the marathon and especially over hilly courses may ultimately unravel her Boston dream, she cannot be counted out of a top 3 finish.

3. Salina Kosgei – Kosgei marked her Boston debut in 2009 with the closest victory in race history, barely out-leaning Tune for the one second win. At 33, Kosgei boasts a marathon resume that practically stretches for 26 miles. While her fastest marathons were all run between 2006 and 2007, she did not have much of an opportunity to showcase her speed in 2009. Boston turned into a slow roll with much of the race run north of 2:35 pace, and she took an awful fall in NY. She recovered to finish 5th in NY, but that race left her unsatisfied and wanting more. Kosgei may no longer have the raw speed of Tune and Erkesso, but she races smart and she has finished in the top-10 in eight World Marathon Majors races. Kosgei should be among the contenders left to duke it out in the end.

4. Lidiya Grigoryeva – Grigoryeva’s slight frame and quiet demeanor divulge little about her overall toughness. She doesn’t own the fastest marathon times in the field (her PR, 2:25:10, was set four years ago), but as the past winner of both Chicago and Boston, she can’t be counted out. Grigoryeva epitomizes the runner who fearlessly rises to the challenge and shows up ready to perform. She outlasted every runner to win Boston during the Nor’easter in 2007, and she literally ran through the fire as temperatures soared in 2008 to capture the title in Chicago, negative splitting the course by five minutes. At 36, she might not make the top 3 this year, but there is a strong chance that she will be in the hunt.

5. Madai Perez – Perez may not have the name recognition of Tune, Erkesso, Kosgei and Grigoryeva, but with Ndereba out, she holds the fastest PR in the field, 2:22:59 (Chicago 2006). She finished 3rd in the 2007 Boston Nor’easter and 19th in the Beijing Olympics in 2008. After giving birth to her second child, she made her 2010 debut in the NYC Half, finishing on the heels of Deena Kastor in 1:09:45. If Perez has continued to build on her shape from the NYC half, then a top 5 finish is well within her reach.

6. Weiwei Sun – Sun is a bit of a wildcard as she rarely races outside of Asia and she has struggled internationally. She made her marathon debut in 2002 at the age of 17, blasting a promising 2:25:15. While she has yet to match her debut PR, she remains a young gun who might just be ready to rise again. Since 2002, she has raced two to four marathons per year so she has the experience to stick with the leaders.

The Dark Horses

1. Bruna Genovese – Genovese could surprise the field and run away with a top three finish. Returning to Boston – the site of her 2006 2:25:28 PR – for the 6th time, she has more experience on the course than any other woman in the field. She has consistently run in the 2:29-2:30 range for the past two years so if the race turns tactical, she could surprise a few of the big names.

2. Agnes Kiprop – Kiprop enters Boston after running a pair of 2:26 marathons in 2009. She has only run three marathons but she has managed to win all three. With a strong showing in the RAK Half-Marathon in February, running 1:08:48, she is clearly in shape. Undoubtedly, Kiprop will be eager to keep her streak alive, and this hunger just might land her on the podium.

3. Yurika Nakamura – Nakamura has only raced two marathons, but she showed promise in both. In her debut, she won the Nagoya International Women’s Marathon in 2:25:51, and she followed up that impressive show with a 13th place finish in the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Given her talent, she might hang in there in the end in her Boston and World Marathon Major debut.

Women’s Open Field Personal Best

• Salina Kosgei, Kenya 2:23:22 (Berlin, 2006)
• Madai Perez, Mexico 2:22:59 (Chicago, 2006) NR
• Teyba Erkesso, Ethiopia 2:23:53 (Houston, 2010)
• Dire Tune, Ethiopia 2:24:40 (Houston, 2008)
• Lidiya Grigoryeva, Russia 2:25:10 (Los Angeles, 2006)
• Weiwei Sun, China 2:25:15 (Beijing, 2002)
• Bruna Genovese, Italy 2:25:28 (Boston, 2006)
• Albina Mayorova‐Ivanova, Russia 2:25:35 (Chicago, 2003)
• Yurika Nakamura, Japan 2:25:51 (Nagoya, 2008)
• Agnes Kiprop, Kenya 2:26:22 (Turin, 2009)
• Nailya Yulamanova, Russia 2:26:30 (Rotterdam, 2009)
• Koren Jelela Yal, Ethiopia 2:28:41 (Venice, 2009)
• Waynishet Girma, Ethiopia 2:29:50 (Amsterdam, 2009)
• Tatyana Pushkareva, Russia 2:30:30 (San Antonio, 2009)
• Meseret Legese, Ethiopia 2:31:37 (Padova, 2009)
• Paige Higgins, USA 2:33:06 (Chicago, 2008)
• Michelle Frey, USA 2:35:51 (Minneapolis/St. Paul, 2006)
• Chaofeng Jia, China (Debut)

View Original Post at eliterunning.com

• Filed Under:  
• Marathon, Running, Sports

• Tags:
• Feature Story

This post is related to an event on our Calendar:

• The Boston Marathon