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Note: I only considered coaches from the top seven conferences keeping in mind the volatility of job situations in mid-majors and small conferences.

Hot

-Angela Kelly (Tennessee)

Good Cop: Kelly probably represents Tennessee Soccer as much as anyone in the history of the program. The Vols have a trophy cabinet second only to Florida in the league and won a conference tournament title as recently as 2008. For all the talks about Tennessee’s struggles, the Big Orange did end up finishing in third place in the league, showing dramatic improvement from the season before where they just snuck into the SEC Tournament with an eighth place finish.

Bad Cop: Unfortunately, most of the those trophies came a long time ago before Florida’s current reign of terror. That 2008 SEC Tournament title came as a real shock, and Tennessee were not going to make it to the NCAA Tournament without the league’s automatic bid that season. While the team did improve in the league standings last year, the SEC stunk in 2010 and Tennessee were shown up in pretty brutal fashion by some of the nation’s top teams last year. A 3-1 loss to Arizona in particular did not reflect well on the program. There are also whispers that the Vols’ are too stubborn in their gameplan and have been found out by many opponents in recent seasons.

Target for Safety: NCAA Tournament Bid

-Sue-Moy Chin (Pittsburgh)

Good Cop: The Panthers haven’t been that bad over the past few seasons and have suffered through bad timing more than anything else. They beat Ohio State and UConn and drew against West Virginia, Marquette, and Notre Dame in 2009 after all. They beat UConn again last season to reach the postseason last year, showing at least some signs of progress.

Bad Cop: This program really needs to be beyond “some signs of progress” at this point in their lifespan. Pitt only made the postseason last year with the help of a whole lot of rivals losing on the last day of the season. And though getting to the Big East Tournament was one sign of forward momentum, the Panthers also finished four matches under .500 and took a nosedive in the final RPI. The Panthers also lost to Ohio of the MAC and drew with Kent State last season in particularly distressing results.

Target for Safety: .500 Record and Big East Tournament Bid

-Rich Manning (Utah)

Bad Cop: The Utes were beyond wretched last season, dropping more than a hundred places in the RPI , losing their first six matches and nine of their first ten. There were losses to Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, and Arizona and a large scale power outage in front of goal for Utah last season, as they failed to score in eleven matches. It’s part of a disturbing trend for the Utes who were a Top 20 RPI team in 2006 but who’ve gradually declined and fallen further and further behind their state rivals at BYU. If Utah struggled this badly with a Mountain West schedule, how bad could it get in the ruthless Pac-12?

Good Cop: That doesn’t mean Manning shouldn’t get a chance to try and turn things around in the new league. Realistically, if there was going to be a change, it should have been done after last season for Utah to get a completely fresh start entering into their new home. Pulling the plug after one season in the Pac-12 if there’s not a complete freefall would be pretty counterproductive. Manning has discussed the conference move as a boon to recruiting, and it could be those new recruits that save his skin in the next few seasons.

Target for Safety: Ten Wins (Helped By An Awful Non-Conference Slate) and Looking Competitive in the Pac-12

-Mark Francis (Kansas)

Bad Cop: They had an awful 2010 season. Almost mindbendingly bad if we’re going to be totally honest. Losses to teams like Illinois State and Cal State Northridge were cringe inducing, while the team slid down the ladder in the Big XII, only avoiding an 0-fer with a shock 1-0 win against Texas. It wasn’t just the losses but how thoroughly uncompetitive the team looked against many of their opponents in 2010. Francis is making far too much money for such a disastrous season at this point in his tenure.

Good Cop: He’s also on a long-term deal making all that money thanks to the efforts of disgraced former Kansas AD Lew Perkins who offered up a sweetheart deal that runs through the end of 2014. Unless the Jayhawks want to swallow a whole lot of money, they’re going to be stuck with Francis for an awfully long time to come. Hope is not all lost for KU faithful though as Kansas adds some big-time international talent this year and could at least be more like the 2009 team that won twelve games.

Target for Safety: Mid-Table in Big XII

-John Walker (Nebraska)

Good Cop: Like some others on this list, Walker has become a part of the furniture at a program. Walker was the architect of some fabulous success for the Cornhuskers in years gone by, and Nebraska was very unfortunate not to have reached a College Cup during the team’s glory years. The Huskers certainly haven’t failed to entertain in recent seasons either. There’ve been goals galore in Lincoln…even if they haven’t all been going in for Nebraska.

Bad Cop: Despite the thrilling nature of many of Nebraska’s matches, the Huskers have looked like a team stuck in the past for many of the last handful of seasons. A decided lack of defense has kept the team from hitting previous heights, and the program’s uncompromisingly direct style may ultimately be setting the program back. Nebraska hasn’t come close to making the NCAA Tournament in a while, and it remains to be seen whether the Huskers struggle in a league where defense reigns supreme. Still, with all that firepower at their disposal, the Huskers need to get to the Big Dance sooner rather than later.

Target for Safety: NCAA Tournament Bid

-Wendy Dillinger (Iowa State)

Good Cop: It might not look it on its face, but there’s been progress in Ames. The team has seen its RPI go up each season since Dillinger’s first year in charge in 2008 and nearly cracked the Top 100 last year. The team was at least competitive against most of its Big XII opposition, beating Kansas, Baylor, and Missouri (in a 5-0 mauling) while only losing by a single goal against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M;, Texas, and Texas Tech.

Bad Cop: There was a whole lot of record inflation going on in Ames as well with wins over teams like Northern Iowa and Montana to pad the stats. There were also some ghastly results in non-conference play as well, with losses to South Dakota State, Loyola (Ill.) and state rivals Iowa, the latter by a 4-0 count. There were also draws with Drake and North Dakota State. The fanbase is starting to fidget a bit as well thanks to the lack of postseason action.

Target for Safety: .500 and Big XII Tournament Qualification

-Karen Ferguson-Dayes (Louisville)

Good Cop: Dude, do you understand how bad things were before Ferguson-Dayes got here? The Cardinals were legitimately one of the worst teams in America a little over a decade ago, winning two games in between 1998-2000. That’s not two games each year, that’s two games COMBINED in three years. Ferguson-Dayes dragged the team up by their bootstraps and got them to the NCAA Tournament in 2006 and 2007. Louisville’s also been able to bring in some nice prospects in recent years, including potential Canadian star Christine Exeter. Despite the fitful Big East form, they still made the Big East Tournament.

Bad Cop: Unfortunately, one of those prospects, one-time goalkeeping wunderkind Taylor Vancil beat a hasty retreat for Florida State after last season. Louisville looked to have fixed the problems that had made for a miserable 2009 season after a blazing start, including wins over South Carolina, Toledo, and Kentucky. But the Cardinals went down in flames after a 3-0 defeat at Illinois and won only three of their last twelve. It’s now three seasons without an NCAA Tournament appearance and the league is only getting tougher.

Target for Safety: NCAA Tournament Qualification (Aided By A Very Doable Schedule)

Hotter

-Neil MacDonald (Mississippi State)

Bad Cop: Dear God, have you been following SEC soccer the past few seasons? The Bulldogs haven’t made the postseason since 2004, they were 2-16-0 in 2006 and had a seventeen match losing streak in the league at one point. MSU has resorted to scheduling chicanery to mask their failings, scheduling an embarrassing amount of minnows in non-conference play to boost their record. It hasn’t helped their SEC record though, with MSU being beaten decisively by most conference rivals, including shipping seven each to Florida and South Carolina last year. Losing Mexican international Monica Alvarado to a transfer is hardly a good sign either.

Good Cop: Uh, have you actually been to Starkville in the past decade? Good luck recruiting top level talent there. MSU also did manage to beat Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl last season and apparently looked pretty decent doing it. And it may just be preseason, but a 3-0 win over Samford should at least give the team some confidence going into the new year.

Target for Safety: Eleventh in the SEC Would Be A Start

-Mark Carr (San Francisco)

Bad Cop: There’s that whole one win in sixteen matches thing from last season. Or that whole seventeen wins in four seasons thing. Or maybe the fact that San Francisco is still the only program in the league without a trip to the NCAA Tournament to their name. The bad news is that the Dons’ task isn’t about to get any easier any time soon with BYU joining the ranks of the league. USF has finished below the two hundred mark in three of Carr’s four seasons in charge.

Good Cop: Carr didn’t exactly inherit a whole lot to begin with. And though the end result at the conclusion of the season didn’t necessarily reflect it, there were some very positive results sprinkled throughout the year. Wins against San Jose State and UC Santa Barbara were positive building blocks, while draws with Pepperdine and Loyola Marymount and a season ending win against Gonzaga showed that the program was capable of competing with WCC programs. Baby steps.

Target for Safety: Escaping The WCC Basement

-Neil McGuire (Cal)

Bad Cop: Couldn’t get out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament with Alex Morgan on the roster. Couldn’t get out of mid-table in the Pac-10 with Alex Morgan on the roster. And the unpleasantness of the 2009 season. Eek.

Good Cop: Oh, come on. It’s not like Cal have been that bad over the past few years. Yes, they may have had Morgan (and fellow WPSer Megan Jesolva) last season, but she also missed multiple games thanks to USWNT commitments which probably unsettled the side. Compared with the plight of some of their conference rivals in the past few seasons, things have been downright serene in Berkeley.

Target for Safety: NCAA Tournament Bid

-Chris Petrucelli (Texas)

Bad Cop: He’s making a lot of money without winning a lot of trophies and has been getting kneecapped in the local press about it in recent months. Petrucelli’s record might be acceptable at about 95% of DI programs, but contending for national titles is the order of the day in Austin for the Longhorns. Texas hasn’t even come close under the former Notre Dame coach and were left with egg on their face last season after losing to James Madison in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Good Cop: Hey, did your top attacking threat walk out on your team in the middle of the season last year? Did you go through a ridiculous injury crisis the season before that shattered NCAA Tournament dreams? Petrucelli’s been dealt a lousy hand over the past few years and might just need a little more luck to set the Horns off towards some trophies. There’s plenty of talent here, and Ohio State showed last year that turnarounds for such inconsistent teams can be sudden and dramatic.

Target for Safety: Big XII Silverware and/or NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen

-Mick Lyon (Indiana)

Good Cop: The Hoosiers weren’t really all that bad a few years ago. They did make it to the Sweet Sixteen in 2007 and finished fourth in the league that year. They’ve also shown an ability to beat some strong teams over the past few seasons as they topped Florida in 2009 and then Ohio State last year. In truth, they weren’t really all that far off an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament in 2009 either, finishing right near the bubble.

Bad Cop: The reason they did finish out of the at-large picture in 2009 was a four game losing streak to end the season and just one win in seven during that stretch. The bad form seemed to have carried over into 2010 after the first few weeks of the season as Indiana took some heavy beatings early on and never regained their form in league play. It’s now been three seasons without a spot in the Big Dance.

Target for Safety: Big Ten Tournament Qualification

Hottest

-Kazbek Tambi (Seton Hall)

Good Cop: Tambi’s not exactly in unchartered territory in his struggles with the Pirates program. The program was already in great decay by the time he took over in 2007 with the glory days of Kelly Smith long gone. It’s not like those days with Smith brought any great team success at any rate as the program didn’t qualify for the NCAA Tournament once, even with Smith on the books. The Pirates also did show some life in league play last year with wins over Rutgers, Villanova, and Cincinnati. They played Maryland and Notre Dame close as well.

Bad Cop: That’s all nice, but Seton Hall was still mostly shooting blanks in Big East play, and the Pirates were dead and buried as far as the postseason was concerned with an eight match winless streak in Big East play. Four years in, and the Pirates really should be past the point of double digit losses which they’ve suffered through in three straight seasons. And for someone with Tambi’s background, they really should be pulling in a better standard of recruit right now. Four years out of the postseason in a league that takes ten teams into the conference tournament is a bad sign.

Target for Safety: Big East Tournament Qualification

-Tara Erickson (Oregon)

Bad Cop: No winning seasons in four years, including two straight seasons with double digit losses. A steadily declining RPI. All of that, and the team is losing its superstar of the past few seasons in Jen Stoltenberg. Not helping matters is the rise of state rivals Oregon State, leaving the Ducks to gradually sink like a stone to the bottom realms of the Pac-12.

Good Cop: It’s not like Erickson’s never put together a competitive team in the Pac-10. The Ducks did finish in second place in 2006 in the league after all. Of course, the problem with that in retrospect is that that came mostly with former coach Bill Steffen’s players and that Oregon still didn’t qualify for the NCAA Tournament. But despite the loss of Stoltenberg, the team brings in a great recruiting class that could go some way in replenishing the talent level in Eugene.

Target for Safety: .500 Record And A Challenge for A NCAA Tournament Berth

-Ron Rainey (Iowa)

Bad Cop: Three straight finishes out of the RPI Top 100 and four out of five seasons. Built record last season mainly on inferior non-conference opposition and had to beat Purdue on the last day to avoid a winless Big Ten season. Have also had three straight losing seasons. Some sections of fanbase are getting more and more agitated (if comments sections on some articles are to be believed).

Good Cop: Hawkeyes did improve late last season with a draw against Michigan State on the road and that win against Purdue. Even in defeat in the final couple of weeks, Iowa did keep it close against Indiana and Michigan. Win over Central Michigan and thumping defeat of Iowa State were also somewhat promising signs. Decent recruiting class coming into Iowa City this season.

Target for Safety: .500 Record And Big Ten Tournament Qualification

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