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The Journey Continues - Steph Panozzo & Illinois Will Hope To Get Even With Ohio State On Wednesday

(32) Illinois vs (54) Ohio State – 2:30 PM EST (Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinal) [Regular Season: Ohio State 2 - 1 Illinois]

Ninety minutes (or perhaps twenty more) on Wednesday could determine how we look back on Ohio State’s 2011 season. The Buckeyes enter their Big Ten Tournament quarterfinal match on the brink, a position inconceivable after beating witness to the Buckeyes’ 2-1 win over Illinois in their second Big Ten match of the season. But looking behind the scoreline, it’s a little easier to see how OSU’s in their current predicament when you notice that they were outshot by a 2:1 ratio in that match. Lori Walker’s side would only win four of their last nine to dip to a disappointing seventh place in the league, hardly doing justice to some preseason prognostications of a Big Ten title challenge a season after crashing the College Cup and winning the league in stunning fashion. Then again, it was probably a little difficult to envision Illinois in this position after that loss to OSU either. It was a part of a three match winless streak to open up league play that had many wondering if Illinois would be a viable NCAA Tournament contender come the end of the season. The Illini responded with eight wins in a row to finish second in the league, netting Janet Rayfield a deserved Big Ten Coach of The Year award. Illinois enters this tournament in a sort of RPI limbo though, clearly safe from the bubble but likely not going to push for a national seed unless they win the thing and results break their way. But they also don’t have the pressure hanging over them that Ohio State does. The Buckeyes know that defeat could well consign them to being out of the NCAA Tournament. How OSU rises or crumbles in the face of that pressure will be one of the big storylines to follow on Wednesday.

(55) Michigan State vs (62) Iowa – 11:30 AM EST (Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinal) [Regular Season: Iowa 1 - 0 Michigan State]

In a week where complicated scenarios and a plethora of number crunching rules the day, it’s wickedly simple for these two teams: Win or Go Home. As in home for the holidays and beyond. Neither of these two Big Ten teams have much in the way of a profile the selection committee will smile on come Monday with no uRPI Top 40 wins between them. That means making it to the Big Dance is all about making their stay in Evanston a long one for both of these sides, meaning one of these two teams’ NCAA Tournament dreams will likely be on ice at approximately 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday afternoon. Michigan State were definitely late bloomers in Big Ten play this year, sitting at 3-3-0 after six matches and looking very much in serious danger. But the Spartans would get on a fine run of form late, winning four of their last five to finish third in the league and give themselves a decent shot if they performed well in the Big Ten Tournament. Going against the Spartans is a decided lack of quality wins on the non-conference slate, meaning impressing in Evanston this weekend could be key. Laura Heyboer and Olivia Stander have been a handful for opposing defenses this season, and Hannah Peterson has been in great form down the stretch, giving this MSU squad another weapon to rattle defenses with. Iowa comes into this one knowing that they already beat the Spartans once this year and held Heyboer to just one shot in that match to boot. A horrid stretch of one win in four had many doubting the Hawkeyes would make it to Evanston, but to their credit, they won their last two games, including a 2-0 win in the finale at Wisconsin to make it in. It remains to be seen how this Iowa team, neophytes to the postseason, will respond in such a high pressure situation though. Whoever rises to the challenge on Wednesday will extend their season another few days and breathe new life into their NCAA Tournament hopes.

(59) Texas Tech vs (53) Texas – 12:30 PM EST (Big XII Tournament Quarterfinal) [Regular Season: Texas Tech 3 - 2 Texas]

As above, there’s not much subtle about this quarterfinal matchup. The winner’s season stays going for another few days, while the loser can probably start making plans for next season. What happens on Wednesday is anybody’s guess with both of these teams coming into the postseason badly out of form. Bitten by the injury bug again, Texas has won just one of their last five matches, and you’d have to go back to October 7 to locate their last Big XII win, against a woeful Oklahoma side. The Horns looked battered, bruised, and utterly outclassed in their regular season finale against Texas A&M; and are probably going to have to dig deep to muster up the strength to topple Texas Tech on Wednesday. The Red Raiders already downed the Horns once this season, in a 3-2 extra time thriller in Lubbock. Problem for Texas Tech is that that win was their only victory in their last four regular season matches, which included an embarrassing defeat to bottom club Iowa State. In fact, the Red Raiders have won just one of their last five league games, leading many to wonder if they’re long for San Antonio in such hideous form. Neither of these sides has a uRPI Top 40 win, though Texas’ win over Georgia probably carries fractionally more weight than anything on Tech’s razor thin profile coming into this one. Neither of these two teams are going to be breathing all that easily with a win, but it’ll still leave them with some hope heading into Friday. The loser’s season will likely be over.

(28) LSU vs (27) Auburn – 1:00 PM EST (SEC Tournament Quarterfinal) [Regular Season: Auburn 3 - 1 LSU]

Some might have expected these two to meet in another Tiger Derby in the first round of the SEC Tournament…just not in the 2/7 game to kick off the event on Wednesday. As it turned out, the gap really was that big between these two programs thanks to late season runs in form. League runners-up LSU saw their title hopes fade after a two win in five stretch, but that also overlapped with three wins in four (all on the road), including a shock win in Gainesville to break Florida’s league dominance at home. Auburn’s SEC form was a real roller coaster ride, with three straight wins followed by three straight losses, and then a pair of wins at home to put them in with an outside shot at the SEC title in the final weeks of the season. Instead, Karen Hoppa’s team wilted, with just one point in their final three matches, with the defense proving especially brittle in away defeats to Tennessee and Alabama. At one time a team looking worthy of a national seed, Auburn instead ended up as one of the league’s biggest disappointments, falling to seventh, their worst finish in the league since missing out entirely on the postseason in 2000. While AU should still be safely in the NCAA Tournament, they have seen their RPI plummet to the point where a national seed looks like a remote possibility. The Tigers in Orange and Blue will be pleased to see Ana Cate return from a one match ban to help fuel the offense, though all eyes will be on senior midfielder Katy Frierson, just the fifth player in SEC history to be voted All-SEC First Team all four years of her collegiate career, joining a list that includes Florida and USWNT legend Abby Wambach. Snapping at her heels though will be SEC Co-Defensive Player of the Year Allysha Chapman, one of the top defensive midfielders in the country. She and her LSU teammates will be keen to avenge a 3-1 defeat on The Plains in which Cate and Frierson each scored in the Auburn win.

(14) Baylor vs (60) Missouri – 3:00 PM EST (Big XII Tournament Quarterfinal) [Regular Season: Baylor 3 - 1 Missouri]

One club enters trying to solidify its hopes of a potential national seed against all odds, the other enters fighting for their very bubble lives. If you would’ve guessed the former to be Baylor and the latter to be Missouri at the beginning of this season, you probably would’ve been met with a few odd stares from those knowing the recent history of these two programs. No hopers for the longest time, Baylor enters the postseason riding new waves of success, with their only defeats in league play coming against Big XII giants Oklahoma State and Texas A&M.; The Bears have streamed together wins, including victories over bubble sides like Louisville, Texas, Kansas, and these very Missouri Tigers a few weeks ago in Waco. Baylor’s lack of a truly signature win probably makes them outsiders for a national seed, but a deep run in San Antonio could change that. It’s a different story for Missouri who have suffered as much as anyone with Ohio State’s struggles. What was supposed to be a signature win for the Tigers has instead only counted for leverage in the battle against the bubble. Mizzou does have a priceless win against Texas A&M; on their resume though, meaning they might just squeak through if they can just boost their RPI up a little more. These Tigers also have bubble losses against Texas and Texas Tech and also took a bad loss against Iowa State in their regular season finale that may have been one more than the profile could ultimately handle. It puts Missouri into a situation where they need to avenge their defeat against Baylor in the regular season to feel comfortable about their bubble prospects. Defeat here would spell big trouble for Missouri, with Bryan Blitz’s club likely then being forced into the position of hoping to get a few breaks against bubble teams elsewhere to save their skin.

(22) Tennessee vs (17) Kentucky – 3:30 PM EST (SEC Tournament Quarterfinal) [Regular Season: Kentucky 1 - 0 Tennessee]

Wednesday afternoon, Tennessee will become the latest SEC team to try and break the league’s Curse of The #3 Seed, which has hung over Orange Beach for much of the past decade. Teams entering into the SEC Tournament as the third seed have been notoriously unsuccessful in Orange Beach, having currently not won a match on the Gulf Coast since these same Lady Vols did it against Auburn in 2006. That was only one of three occasions that the #3 seed has prevailed since the league went to it’s current tournament format in 1999. UT has unique experience with the curse, having felt its sting three times, including last year when Tennessee saw their season end at the hands of LSU. The Big Orange comes into Orange Beach fighting for a potential national seed, knowing a win over Kentucky would go a long way in seeing them reach that goal come Selection Monday. Standing in their way is a Wildcat team with similar ambitions but perhaps lacking the consistency for an extended run in Orange Beach. UK has alternated wins and losses since the second week of the league season but has still made massive strides this season and can undoubtedly be thrilled about being able to breathe easy about their NCAA Tournament status coming into this week. They may even be in the frame for a national seed themselves if they can win a game or two this week to boost their profile. These two played a tight clash in Lexington earlier this year won by the side in blue, and we could be in store for another thriller as UT tries to buck history and break the hex in Orange Beach.

(26) South Carolina vs (45) Alabama – 6:00 PM EST (SEC Tournament Quarterfinal) [Regular Season: South Carolina 4 - 1 Alabama]

South Carolina enters the SEC Tournament in Orange Beach in unfamiliar circumstances: Namely they’re SEC champions and have the nice #1 by their name. That distinction means added pressure though, and the Gamecocks will be keen to avoid the ignominy of being a regular season champ sent packing at the first hurdle. The Gamecocks also have another aim while pursuing a double, specifically, continuing to climb the RPI and getting into national seed range with their ranking. It seems odd to mention the SEC champion as not a lock for at least a national seed, but SC’s non-conference schedule was mostly forgettable, forcing the Gamecocks to start making up major ground in league play. Newly minted SEC Offensive Player of The Year Kayla Grimsley will surely relish the sight of Wednesday’s opponents after having netted a hatful of assists against the Crimson Tide in their regular season meeting, a 4-1 thumping by the Gamecocks in Columbia that helped kickstart SC’s run to their first SEC title. Alabama enters Orange Beach after one of the most thrilling matches in program history, capped off by Ashley Willis’ winner, a Goal of The Year contender that won’t soon be forgotten by Crimson Tide supporters. She and the rest of her Bama teammates can further etch this group into history with an upset in this one. Todd Bramble’s side will enter as heavy underdogs but know that even forcing Carolina into a shootout could well get them into the NCAA Tournament with their RPI currently residing in the bubble zone. It’d be awful hard to ignore Alabama with wins over Tennessee, Auburn, and South Carolina on their resume if Bama prevails here. Even if they lose though, you’d have to think that the Tide would get at least a look from the Selection Committee with some of their late season SEC results. Fans of the Canadian WNT might also want to take note of this one, with two top Canadian goalkeeping prospects manning the pipes in South Carolina’s Sabrina D’Angelo and Alabama’s Justine Bernier.

(10) Florida vs (35) Georgia – 8:30 PM EST (SEC Tournament Quarterfinal) [Regular Season: Georgia 0 - 1 Florida]

Never in a million years did anyone expect these two to be meeting in the opening round of the SEC Tournament. Then again, nobody probably expected Florida to be coming to Orange Beach with a crooked number by their name. After splitting their opening weekend in league play, Florida reeled off five straight wins and for all the world looked like they’d extend their streak of league titles come the end of the season. But instead, the Gators fell behind early against Mississippi State and have never truly recovered, losing three of their last four to blow the title in spectacular fashion and finish fourth in the league, their worst ever showing in the SEC. Perhaps it’s a blessing then that the Gators draw a team that also saw its title hopes go up in smoke down the stretch after Georgia went winless in their final three matches to fall to fifth in the league. Mid-table’s about where Georgia has typically finished in recent seasons, but considering the team had looked pretty darn good in winning six of seven in the league, to be out of the top tier of teams at the end of the campaign must have stung. Both sides have their worries coming into this one, with Florida all but assured of missing McKenzie Barney after the forward suffered facial fractures in the loss to South Carolina, while Georgia’s limp performance against Tennessee in their regular season finale underlined a rapid loss in form down the stretch. Bulldogs coach Steve Holeman will also be looking to improve a dire record in this competition, coming into this year’s SEC Tournament with a 6-15-0 record with three programs in the league’s showpiece event. The past counts for little in this one though, and Georgia will be looking to deal their rivals another big blow in Orange Beach’s primetime clash on Wednesday. Tactics will certainly be a talking point after Georgia largely abandoned their pressing game in the regular season meeting, leaving Florida to struggle to find a way through swaths of players behind the ball. It nearly worked with the Gators only claiming a 1-0 win, but Florida may face a more proactive and aggressive Georgia squad eager to prey on a Gator team struggling for confidence and form.

(16) Texas A&M; vs (43) Kansas – 9:00 PM EST (Big XII Tournament Quarterfinal) [Regular Season: Kansas 0 - 3 Texas A&M;]

You can’t sugarcoat it. This potentially has the makings of a long night for a Kansas team who could have scarcely wished for a worse matchup in San Antonio. Texas A&M; enters this one with the nation’s top scoring offense, having scored a slightly ridiculous sixty-four goals in nineteen matches, or better than three a game. While a lot of those goals came against meager opposition out of conference, A&M; still tied for the top of scoring chart in league play. They shared that spot with this very Kansas team. The Jayhawks though were dead last in the league in defense, giving up twenty-one goals in Big XII play, or nearly three goals a game. KU also ranks twenty-first worst in the nation in total scoring defense, having shipped a remarkable forty-one goals in nineteen matches. The Jayhawks also scored forty-three goals in the regular season though, meaning Kansas is near being in the top twenty in offense and bottom twenty in defense in Division I. Kansas has only kept one clean sheet this season, and that was in September, so the Jayhawks may have to roll the dice and try to get into an offensive slugfest with the Aggies. But that’s a risky proposition, even for a team with an offense like Kansas’. KU also comes into this one knowing that their loss to Oklahoma to cap the regular season has likely plunged them into bubble danger and that they’ll be sweating if they don’t get a result against A&M.; But the Aggies will surely not be short of motivation, trying to grab some silverware before departing for the SEC while also making a run for a national seed in the NCAA Tournament.

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