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NCAA Soccer – Pre-Conference Play Grades/NCAA Tournament Prospects/Predicted Order of Finish – SEC

posted by All White Kit
Thursday, September 13, 2012 at 8:47am EDT

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Alabama

Grade: © – Are Alabama better than a ‘C’ team? It’s hard to say considering they played just one major conference club in non-conference play. They hammered a lot of the lesser lights on the schedule, but defeat to Maryland heaps the pressure on in SEC play.
Current RPI – 56
Top Scorer – Katie Bourgeois (6 G, 2 A)
NCAA Tournament Prospects – Not that great without a serious run in SEC play. While they don’t have any real bad losses, they don’t have a great win either, meaning they have to make up some major ground in the league.

Arkansas

Grade: (B-) – Rock bottom expectations, but there have been flickers of potential being shown in Fayetteville. Started strong but have stumbled as of late (including bizarre Kennesaw State loss), but managed to give Florida State a decent game.
Current RPI – 150
Top Scorer – Ashleigh Ellenwood (1 G, 1 A)
NCAA Tournament Prospects – Any fleeting hopes of a shock bid were likely washed away with the defeat to Kennesaw State. None of their wins thus far will likely mean much in the RPI come the end of the season, meaning they’d have to go on a serious SEC run to stand a chance.

Auburn

Grade: (B-) – Much depended on match with Texas Tech, and Auburn gritted out a win to breathe life into an ailing season. Not out of the woods by any means, and still has to prove they can do it on the road, but things looking up at the moment.
Current RPI – 57
Top Scorer – Tori Ball (3 G, 0 A)
NCAA Tournament Prospects – Decent, though very far from a lock right now. Georgia State win will likely degrade, and they’ll be rooting for Texas Tech all season long. No real bad losses though, and an above average season in the SEC could see them through.

Florida

Grade: (B+) – Was their defeat to Miami (FL) to open the season an anomaly? Weren’t exactly convincing in a follow up draw with North Carolina but get serious kudos for beating Duke and being one of the few clubs to make them look human. Other wins look hollow though, meaning they’ve got a lot of work to do for a high national seed.
Current RPI – 16
Top Scorer – Erika Tymrak & Havana Solaun (2 G, 2 A)
NCAA Tournament Prospects – Gators look good for a national seed with win over Duke and draw with North Carolina in the back pocket. Loss to Miami (FL) may keep them off the top lines, but a strong SEC season could give them a chance.

Georgia

Grade: © – Offense has looked like a dead thing against strongest opposition, while RPI is overrating UNC Greensboro and Furman wins right now. Will be hoping that South Florida win can compensate for what could be a bad loss at home to New Mexico.
Current RPI – 48
Top Scorer – Bella Hartley (4 G, 0 A)
NCAA Tournament Prospects – Probably less than the RPI indicates right now. Wins over UNC Greensboro and Furman are likely to degrade later in the season, though they could get a bump if South Florida performs well in the Big East. The real backbreaker could be the loss to New Mexico though, the defeat only adding to the task ahead of the Bulldogs in league play.

Kentucky

Grade: (B-) – Most of their wins look painfully hollow, but Louisville victory could be a lifesaver come November. Bizarre defeat to Samford in non-conference finale doesn’t look good though and raises all sorts of questions before SEC play.
Current RPI – 29
Top Scorer – Natalie Horner (3 G, 0 A)
NCAA Tournament Prospects – Definitely not as good as they looked before the Samford loss. That defeat isn’t a horrible one, but it’s not great, especially given the paucity of quality wins on the resume. Will likely need a top half finish in the league while hoping Louisville performs well in the Big East.

LSU

Grade: (C+) – Another side who’ve been all over the map early this year. Oddly enough, have beaten both uRPI Top 100 sides they’ve played but have dropped results against three of four lowest uRPI teams they’ve faced! Memphis win could be a potential season saver.
Current RPI – 49
Top Scorer – Kaley Blades (2 G, 0 A)
NCAA Tournament Prospects – A whole lot better after the win over Memphis, but considering the C-USA side may be closer to the bubble than a national seed this year, that’s not totally reassuring. It’s the only thing approaching a quality win on a resume packed with results that are dragging the overall profile down. Need quality results in the worst kind of way.

Mississippi State

Grade: © – I’m sorry, but you aren’t going to get that many props from me if you play a schedule so blatantly loaded with teams to boost the W-L-T record come the end of the season. They’ve been in consistent winning form, but who wouldn’t be against that schedule?
Current RPI – 32
Top Scorer – Honeye Heydari (5 G, 4 A)
NCAA Tournament Prospects – Don’t hold your breath. The Bulldogs have a grossly inflated RPI thanks to packing it with lesser teams and could come crashing to Earth if they struggle in the league. A big upset or two and qualifying for the SEC Tournament? Then things might get interesting.

Missouri

Grade: (B) – Missouri might be this season’s team perceived as very good early on thanks to some wins that seemed big at the time but which might not actually be that big in hindsight. Are we sure Memphis and Cal are much more than above average teams? The loss to Ohio State wasn’t exactly their most spirited affair, though they should still have enough for a finish in the top third of the SEC.
Current RPI – 31
Top Scorer – Taiwo Adeshigbin (4 G, 1 A)
NCAA Tournament Prospects – No bad defeats and should have some breathing room with wins over Memphis and Cal. There’s no real standout win though, a fact that might keep these Tigers from a national seed unless they can net some big results in SEC play.

Ole Miss

Grade: (B+) – No, their slate isn’t demonstrably better than Mississippi State’s for the most part, but they did at least try a little bit with Texas Tech on the schedule. And hey, it worked! A whole lot of gaudy wins and a decent RPI going into the league season, though nobody really knows if they’ll be a postseason team. Optimism still has to be on the up after the past few seasons of struggle though.
Current RPI – 22
Top Scorer – Mandy McCalla (7 G, 3 A)
NCAA Tournament Prospects – Probably a little bit overvalued by the RPI at the moment, as Middle Tennessee State win will probably depreciate in value in time. Will be heavily banking on Texas Tech’s form, though a finish in mid-table in the league could be enough to see them in with an NCAA Tournament chance.

South Carolina

Grade: © – You could probably envision a few struggles for the Gamecocks given the lost offense and the absence of Sabrina D’Angelo early, but could you see it being this bad? Draw to Milwaukee may have looked OK at the time, but it looks horrendous now, while defeat to Clemson at home also hurts. What hurts more is absence of a win against any uRPI Top 175 team.
Current RPI – 130
Top Scorer – Coryn Bajema (3 G, 1 A)
NCAA Tournament Prospects – In tons of trouble. Has a lot of ground to make up in the league thanks to lack of quality wins in non-conference play and may need to win upwards of 9-10 games in the league to bump their RPI up significantly. Really can’t afford too many bad results in SEC play.

Tennessee

Grade: (A-) – RPI-bait heavy early portion of non-conference season definitely appears to have paid off though, win against William & Mary is only one that even approaches a quality victory. Draw against Cal State Northridge slightly disappointing, but narrow defeat at UCLA isn’t bad.
Current RPI – 10
Top Scorer – Amy Harrison (4 G, 0 A)
NCAA Tournament Prospects – Only real quality win is against William & Mary, but with their only loss to UCLA, their RPI profile is quite strong at the moment. Could dip a bit if they struggle some in the league, but probably safely in at the moment. A good SEC season should see them in with a good shot at a national seed.

Texas A&M

Grade: (A-) – OK, that loss to San Diego was pretty ghastly considering A&M’s been the only team to not score against the Toreros all season, but the Aggies have made amends after with quality wins over Rutgers, Long Beach State, and potentially Central Michigan. Question, as always, is if A&M can do it away from home.
Current RPI – 13
Top Scorer – Annie Kunz & Kelley Monogue (4 G, 0 A)
NCAA Tournament Prospects – Already a mortal lock for a spot in the NCAA Tournament, the intrigue is in how far up the rankings the Aggies can go in pursuit of a high national seed. They’ve got plenty of very good wins, but no truly great ones, as Long Beach State figures to come back to the field a bit as the season goes on. A dominant SEC season might be enough for a high seed though.

Vanderbilt

Grade: (C+) – Dores might be the SEC Mendoza Line this season after a relatively inauspicious non-conference campaign. Fell, as expected, to Oklahoma State and Memphis, though they gave the latter a bit of a scare. Loss to Gonzaga at home less explainable, and wins aren’t that great if you ignore what looks to be an overvalued win against Middle Tennessee State.
Current RPI – 90
Top Scorer – Cheyna Williams (4 G, 3 A)
NCAA Tournament Prospects – Not all that great. The wins aren’t going to amount to much, with the victory over Middle Tennessee State likely to depreciate. None of the losses are truly bad, though they aren’t apt to help Vandy’s cause either. Would probably need a lot of wins in the SEC or the auto bid to go dancing.

Preseason Predicted Order of Finish:

1. Texas A&M
2. Florida
3. Tennessee
4. Kentucky
5. Georgia
6. South Carolina
7. LSU
8. Alabama
9. Auburn
10. Missouri
11. Ole Miss
12. Vanderbilt
13. Mississippi State
14. Arkansas

Current Predicted Order of Finish:

1. Texas A&M
2. Florida
3. Tennessee
4. Missouri
5. Kentucky
6. LSU
7. Georgia
8. South Carolina
9. Ole Miss
10. Alabama
11. Auburn
12. Vanderbilt
13. Mississippi State
14. Arkansas

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