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Saturday, October 10 – 6:30 PM EST

(1) Penn State (17-3-1, 10-0-1, 1st Big Ten) vs Long Island (10-7-3, 6-1-3, 3rd NEC)

You can’t help but appreciate the grim irony of Long Island, a side whose bread and butter these past few years has been its defense, getting drawn with Virginia and Penn State, two clubs with devastating offenses, in back-to-back NCAA Tournament trips. The Blackbirds probably aren’t going to find this match any more hospitable than that last game against UVA though, with Penn State’s offense lighting up foes left and right. The Nittany Lions probably have been gnawing at the bit to get back in action after their surprise loss to Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament last week. PSU hasn’t proven to be the most defensively stout side thanks to some injuries this year, but it’s not likely LIU has the firepower to take advantage, with just one player having more than two goals on the year. In the end, it’s likely to be a procession to the second round if and when Penn State takes the lead. Not that the home side won’t try to put on a show in the meantime.

Prediction: (1) Penn State 5 – 0 Long Island

(Team Capsules after the jump.)

Penn State

How They Got Here – With goals galore. The Nittany Lions made a statement right off the bat by downing Virginia, 3-1, but would come up empty in a subsequent showdown with Stanford a week later, losing a thriller, 3-2. A win over West Virginia boosted confidence, but PSU would then be topped by BYU in early September in Provo, raising a few questions going into league play. Any worries were quickly put to bed with some dominant performances though, and PSU wrapped up the league title with a draw against Michigan, even though it was the first time the club had dropped points in league play. The Nittany Lions were set to come into the Big Dance having not been shutout by a single opponent but were then surprised by Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament semi-final, also just one of three matches in which they didn’t score multiple goals.

Best Result – The 3-0 win over Ohio State in Columbus continues to look better and better given OSU’s strong form down the stretch.

Worst Result – The Nittany Lions fell and fell hard against BYU in Provo, as the home side ran them off the park in a 3-1 win.

Who’s The Boss – 2012 might represent the best chance for sixth-year head coach Erica Walsh to get over the hump with the Nittany Lions. Walsh showed immediate potential as a head coach at her first gig with Dartmouth, leading the Big Green to a couple of shared league titles and two runs to the NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen. Walsh would leave the club to pursue a master’s degree at Lehigh but popped back up as the U.S. U17 coach, as well as a less successful stint as boss at Harvard. Walsh took over as head coach of Penn State before the 2007 season and has kept up the club’s ridiculous Big Ten title streak but has failed to advance beyond the Sweet Sixteen. Tipped as a future USWNT coaching candidate, continued progress at PSU could be vital for her hopes.

Players To Watch –

Maya Hayes (RW/CF) – Junior is undoubtedly one of the game’s top attacking weapons. Thirty-one goals a season ago was a stunning total, and the U20 World Cup winner has netted twelve since coming back from international duty. Acceleration and first touch are second to none at this level.

Christine Nairn (AMC) – Once the Golden Girl of U.S. Soccer’s youth setup, Nairn has grown into her role as superstar after a tepid beginning to her college career. Thirteen goal, nine assist return leads the club this season. More attacker than playmaker, Nairn boasts a rocket of a shot from distance and isn’t afraid to let fly from long-range.

Whitney Church (CB) – Sophomore moved to center-back this season after spending rookie year in the midfield. Recently crowned Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year isn’t the biggest, but will still be crucial to Nittany Lion title hopes as one of the club’s defensive bulwarks in the 3-5-2 formation.

Raquel Rodriguez (MF) – Walsh appears to have unearthed a true gem in this freshman midfielder out of Costa Rica. The Costa Rican international has blended seamlessly into the Penn State lineup in her first season of collegiate ball, winning Big Ten Freshman of the Year honors. Tied for team lead in assists with nine and should be big part of PSU’s future.

Strengths – Wait, did you miss the above part about Penn State’s offense above? Or them scoring multiple goals in all but three matches? This team scores for fun, and with the deadly trio of Nairn, Hayes, and Mallory Weber leading the charge, the Nittany Lions can blast away just about anyone foolish enough to try and turn a match into a shootout.

Weaknesses – All that attacking impetus has come at a price. Switching to a 3-5-2 after some injuries decimated the defense and going gung ho attacking style has made PSU pleasurable to watch but also nervy at the back at times. They kept a clean sheet in just four of eleven league games and conceded three goals to Stanford, BYU, and Minnesota throughout the season, all clubs with dynamic attacks. Walsh’s side also has to show they can deal with the pressure in the Big Dance. This team has had some befuddling NCAA Tournament losses in Walsh’s reign.

Will Lose When – They try and run and gun with an opponent that can match firepower with them. Which won’t be easy to find, mind you.

Upside – National Champions

Downside – Sweet Sixteen

Famous Last Words – The big question is how much do you adjust expectations with this club after the loss in the Big Ten Tournament semi-finals? Penn State has tons of talent, especially on the offensive side of the ball, but that loss just called into further question the club’s ability to buckle down and get it done in big postseason games. If they can stay healthy and conquer some of their mental demons, they could go all the way. If not, PSU will likely fall short of the College Cup once again.

Long Island

How They Got Here – After a horrendous start, thanks to late heroics. Long Island aimed ambitiously to begin the season but their devilishly tough non-conference schedule led to five defeats in six, with their only win coming against lowly UMBC. They also went winless in their first three in the league, raising concerns that the Blackbirds would even be in the NEC Tournament. A blowout of Wagner marked a turning point though, and LIU finished up with a 6-0-1 mark in their last seven league games. They still were third seeds in the conference tournament though and heavy underdogs in the final against St. Francis (PA), with the league champs having run the table in the league. It mattered not though, as LIU put on a defensive masterclass for their fourth straight 1-0 win and their second straight trip to the NCAA Tournament.

Best Result – That 1-0 win over heated rivals St. Francis (PA) had to feel wonderful after the early woes.

Worst Result – A 4-0 loss to Iowa was a rare meltdown for the stout LIU defense.

Who’s The Boss – One of the busiest coaches in the college game, Tracey Bartholomew hasn’t just led LIU to three league titles and three conference tournament titles, she’s also an adjunct professor at the university in the Health Sciences Department. A star at DIII level as a goalkeeper for the University of Rochester, Bartholomew jumped up to LIU from being an assistant at Colgate during a wildly successful stint and has made the Blackbirds a contender consistently ever since. Team trademark in Brooklyn has been an unyielding defense that has often been among the best in mid-major DI soccer.

Players To Watch

Nicole Labo (M) – Breakout season for the Colorado native after having been a valuable spot starter her first two years in Brooklyn. All-NEC Tournament Team selection in 2011 was a precursor to a fantastic senior season. Immovable in the starting lineup this year but not a big threat to score goals, with just two strikes on the season. Defense from the middle of the park will be the key for her in this one, and she doesn’t face an easy task in the form of Christine Nairn opposite her.

Katherine Egan (FB) – Senior full-back was another spot starter for two years for the club who nailed down a starting job as a junior, starting every match last year. Has retained that spot this season and continues to be one of the NEC’s top defenders while also contributing with her runs up the pitch. Team leader with five assists, including four in the league. Despite that offensive ability, defense will undoubtedly be the focus against PSU’s attack.

Lucy Gunton-Jones (D) – U19 internationals don’t fall off of trees for club’s like Long Island, and Gunton-Jones, featuring at U17 and U19 level for England, has been a big coup for the Blackbirds as a rookie. As the full-back opposite Egan, the freshman has given the club a great wide defending duo with her veteran counterpart. Size and versatility lets her be a threat on set pieces, though she hasn’t mustered a point thus far for the club. A potential star of the future for Bartholomew’s club.

Toni Smith (F) – As far as offense is concerned on this club, Smith is pretty much it. The Brit is the only player with more than two goals on the year and has had a real winding path to Brooklyn, having started her career in the JUCO ranks with Navarro College, where she was two-time JUCO All-American. Looked to be quite the find in 2010 with five goals and three assists but missed all of last season through injury. Has rebounded with seven goals this season but will surely be a marked woman given the paucity of options elsewhere.

Strengths – Naturally with this program, it’s the defense. Four straight 1-0 wins to close out the season tells its own story, and the club hasn’t conceded more than one goal in a game since its murderous early stretch in non-conference play. There’s palpable momentum with this club given their late run to the NEC Tournament title, and the experience of last season’s NCAA Tournament, though they lost, should help them out a bit here.

Weaknesses – LIU’s offensively challenged, as noted above, with Smith the only player with more than two goals on the season. Forget coming back from multiple goal deficits, this club has problems coming back from one goal down. And for all the defense’s ability against league foes, it still had trouble slowing down bigger conference teams early in the season. That’s trouble against Penn State.

Will Lose When – They fall behind against Penn State.

Upside – First Round

Downside – First Round

Famous Last Words – Bartholomew’s a thoroughly underrated coach who has done great things with Long Island, but she’s probably hit her ceiling with the Blackbirds. They really caught fire late and were great defensively, but the offense is nowhere near where it needs to be to contend in this competition. You’d like to think LIU could keep it close against Penn State, but that doesn’t look too likely.

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