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Saturday, October 10 – 6:00 PM EST

UCF (17-4-1, 8-3-0, 3rd C-USA) vs Miami (FL) (9-7-3, 4-4-2, 7th ACC)

Their first meeting this season might have been the one that had gotten away had Miami (FL) failed to qualify for the Big Dance, but the Hurricanes will get a chance for sweet revenge on Saturday night. An impotent display of finishing saw the ACC side put just one shot on goal against UCF despite twelve shots total, and the defense finally buckled in extra time in the 1-0 loss. Offensive inefficiency has been a theme for these Canes throughout the season, though their defense has in large part carried them to this point after an unbelievable turnaround down the stretch to rise to seventh in the league with a four match unbeaten run to end the league season. While confidence might be high as a result in Coral Gables, their opponents will be flying just as high after sealing a dominant Conference USA Tournament title run. The Golden Knights are rounding into form at the right time in many’s eyes, with both offense and defense clicking at the moment. But for some odd reason, I can’t shake the feeling that Miami (FL) isn’t going to lose in Orlando twice this season. The Canes have gutted it out through injuries and inconsistency, and I’m going to call for them to do it one more time in a road upset in a close, gritty game.

Prediction: UCF 1 – 2 Miami (FL) [aet]

(Team Capsules after the jump.)

UCF

How They Got Here – After finally breaking through in the C-USA Tournament. So often a force in the league but never able to get their hands on the league’s auto bid, UCF took advantage of Memphis’ demise this year to finally lift the prize before their departure for the Big East. Early wins over South Florida and Miami (FL) were fine, but it took a road draw against Boston College for everyone to remember that these Golden Knights were a big threat. A frustrating loss (again) to Memphis in the league opener had fans groaning, but four straight wins got them back in the title race. Two straight defeats against SMU and Colorado College wiped out their title hopes though, bringing back bad memories of last season’s inconsistent league campaign. Four straight wins to close out league play set them up well however, and they logged three 2-0 wins in the C-USA Tournament to claim the auto bid and earn hosting rights for a first round game in the Big Dance.

Best Result – The 2-0 win over Memphis in the C-USA Tournament may not have been as impressive as drawing with Boston College, but it probably felt better given the history of the programs.

Worst Result – The defeat to SMU on home turf robbed the club of a double on their way out the Big East door.

Who’s The Boss – A tremendous player with Virginia who captained the club to the 1991 College Cup, Amanda Cromwell also was a member of the USWNT, earning fifty-five caps from 1991-1998. Taking over at UCF in 1999, Cromwell has since built a team in her image: uncompromising and fearless. Dominant in the Atlantic Sun, UCF has also proven to be a big hitter in Conference USA as well, culminating with this season’s C-USA Tournament title as the club prepares to leave for the Big East. Last season’s unbelievable run to the Elite Eight will likely linger longest in supporters’ minds though. A great recruiter who gets the most out of her players and a keen eye for international talent. Teams play better the harder the opponent, making them very dangerous come the NCAA Tournament.

Players To Watch

Marissa Diggs (CB) – Junior looks like an amazing recruiting coup by Cromwell and co. after turning into one of the region’s top defenders. Great defending 1v1 against opposing forwards with her blend of power and pace. Also talented on the ball and not afraid of getting forward either. Good for the odd goal here and there as well and is in many ways the heart and soul of this club. Could be a breakout star if UCF can make another run this season.

Nicolette Radovcic (F) – Had been more known for being a clutch goalscorer rather than a prolific one coming into this season but has taken the reins as the club’s top scoring option. Won C-USA Tournament Offensive MVP honors after nailing the winner in the final against Tulsa. Twelve goals and six in the league, including five more winners to add to her career total make her a dangerous weapon up front for the Golden Knights who will be hoping for more of her clutch magic in front of goal this postseason.

Tishia Jewell (F) – Offensive dynamo the past few years for UCF has turned into a great creator this season, taking advantage of the attention paid to her to open up spaces for her teammates. A bit of a slow start has given way to a fast finish from the senior, as she chipped in with five goals and six assists in the league. Coming into form at just the right time this season, and her offensive contributions will be vital if UCF wants to have a chance of advancing deep into this competition as they did last year.

Madison Barney (M) – The calming influence in midfield for UCF as the club’s fulcrum. A great all-rounder in the middle of the park that helps win and maintain possession while being strong in the air. Has been a starter for both seasons in Orlando and is also capable of the odd assist here and there despite being a mostly defensive force in midfield. Opening round win would setup a rematch against Florida and Barney’s sister McKenzie, a forward for the Gators.

Strengths – They know how to win against big teams. It’s not been as evident this season, as the schedule was filled with less big challenges than usual it seems, but they still played Florida State close and did fight Boston College to a draw on the road, no small feat in either respect. Jewell and Radovcic are a great combo up front, while Diggs is a top notch defender on the backline. Cromwell’s one hell of a motivator as well and has her players running through walls on gameday. UCF’s just solid all over, and their lack of a glaring weakness may be their biggest strength.

Weaknesses – UCF’s biggest weakness would probably be their maddening tendency to play down to the level of opposition at times, a trend which carried over to this year in league play from last season’s inconsistencies. Of course, that’s much less of a problem in the NCAA Tournament, when UCF will most often be the underdog. While the offense has been fine for much of the year, there’s not the superstar scorer here that’s going to dominate a game, meaning multiple goal deficits could be toxic for the Golden Knights.

Will Lose When – They face a team just as physical and gritty as they are that can make the most of what opportunities creep their way.

Upside – Sweet Sixteen

Downside – First Round

Famous Last Words – UCF plainly lives for knockout competitions like this. The Golden Knights have frequently saved their best for last and will fancy their chances at another deep run into the NCAA Tournament given their draw and some eminently beatable opponents. Miami (FL)’s a much tougher opponent than many will give them credit for though, so while UCF has plenty to be confident about, getting tripped up at the first hurdle isn’t out of the question. Neither is multiple wins in this competition again though, and Cromwell’s side remains a force to be reckoned with in November.

Miami (FL)

How They Got Here – Like last year, namely with a crazy late run to sneak in the back door. An opening night win over Florida by three goals raised hopes that the Canes were going to rise up the ACC table, but defeats to South Florida and UCF showed Miami (FL) was far from a sure thing. Tom Anagnost’s side would be a shambles early in league play, losing their first four against the ACC’s Big Eight before stemming the bleeding with a draw against Virginia Tech. It’d be the turning point of their season, as they then fought (almost literally) to a win at Maryland and drew at Boston College. A win in squall like conditions against Florida State essentially completed the Great Escape, with Miami (FL) punching their Dance ticket despite an ACC Tournament loss to Maryland. That they made the tournament was itself a sign of the continued progress in Coral Gables this season.

Best Result – The backs to the wall performance to beat Florida State in the regular season finale, 1-0.

Worst Result – The Canes often kept it close in the league, but a 6-1 battering at North Carolina was a low point in the league season.

Who’s The Boss – Tom Anagnost has enjoyed a meteoric rise through the coaching ranks, having gone from high school coach to ACC head coach in a little over half a decade. Taking over at Central Michigan in difficult circumstances, Anagnost quickly had Central Michigan humming on all cylinders, doing the double twice in the MAC to see his coaching star soar. Something of a surprise pick to lead the Hurricanes before the 2011 season, Anagnost showed the Hurricane brass knew what they were doing after leading the club back to the NCAA Tournament after a barren period in recent years. Two berths in the Big Dance in two seasons have only boosted Anagnost’s reputation further. Teams in Coral Gables have shown a combative edge, that have sometimes worked against the Hurricanes.

Players To Watch

Ali Brennan (D) – Towering senior is at the heart of the club’s defensive efforts on the backline. After being in and out of the starting lineup during her first two seasons, has turned into a player whose name is usually one of the first on the teamsheet. Ended up as one of the team’s top scorers, with three goals on the season, including two game winners. That’s obviously not a good thing in the big picture, but every little bit helps for a sometimes offensively challenged side.

Kate Howarth (F) – Had shown glimpses of real potential up front for the Canes through two seasons before turning into a star last season with eleven goals and seven assists. After another star turn in WPSL Elite over the Summer, big things were expected this season. It’s been a rough year with the increased attention though, as Howarth has scored just three goals on the season and didn’t record a point in league play. Given the club’s scoring issues, getting some offense from her could be all the difference in the tournament.

Jasmine Paterson (F) – Considered a recruiting coup for the Hurricanes with the potential to turn into one of the league’s best over time and with a little luck. Has mostly featured from the start, though Paterson came off the bench for the Canes in the ACC Tournament defeat to Maryland. Two goals and three assists were a modest return but still one of the best marks on the club this year. A breakout performance in the Big Dance would help Miami (FL) chances immeasurably.

Emily Lillard (GK) – As you might tell from the above, the Canes are going to need a big defensive effort to mask their inconsistencies up front. Replacing Vikki Alonzo in goal was never going to be easy, but the Canes may have gotten a gem with Lillard’s transfer from Arkansas. Though she shared time with Paula Forero Cabrera at times, Lillard looks like the club’s #1 and has oodles of potential. Cashing in on some of that in the NCAA Tournament would be a good thing for the offensively challenged Canes.

Strengths – Miami (FL)’s about as mean and tough a team as there is in this competition, which should help take some of the sting out of UCF’s aggressive gameplay. The Canes have had to be too, given how injuries have decimated this lineup at times. Defensively, Miami (FL)’s been pretty solid, with the exception of that meltdown against North Carolina and some slips against the very top teams. The Canes have already shown what they can do as well, beating Florida, Maryland, and Florida State during the regular season. At their best, the Canes are a match for anyone.

Weaknesses – When they’re at their worst though, the Hurricanes are pretty bad. They can be had by average teams when they’re slumping (see South Florida) and will get their doors blown off by top sides. The Hurricanes offense has been pretty wretched for most of the season as well. Much of their damage has been done in the early part of the season, and they’ve scored just three goals in their last six. Injuries have played a part, as Miami’s been bleeding depth down the stretch, which isn’t a great sign against a pretty deep team.

Will Lose When – Someone isn’t fazed by the roughhouse tactics and can force an often toothless Miami (FL) side to play from behind.

Upside – Sweet Sixteen

Downside – First Round

Famous Last Words – The Hurricanes are one frustrating side to figure out. They’ve shown they can be great while also showing they can be pretty awful. The injuries that have taken their toll are a pretty big red flag coming into this competition in which depth is a premium. But still, Miami (FL)’s been impressive with their back’s to the wall, going unbeaten in their last four ACC games to get into the Big Dance. That momentum could serve them well for a game or two, but their lack of big time scorers will catch up with them sooner rather than later.

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