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Saturday, October 10 – 6:00 PM EST

Michigan (14-5-2, 7-2-2, 3rd Big Ten) vs Central Michigan (15-6-1, 9-2-0, 2nd MAC)

Fans of defense will likely flock to Ann Arbor on Saturday, as Michigan and Central Michigan engage in what’s likely to be trench warfare given the two clubs involved. Neither defense has been up for giving much this season, so something’s gotta give on Saturday evening. The Wolverines will be wary of a CMU club that has topped West Virginia and drawn with Marquette already this season, showing the Chippewas are certainly not above upsetting the order. Whether CMU can find a way through Michigan’s stout defense with an attack that doesn’t feature a player who’s scored more than five goals is another matter entirely. The Chippewas also find themselves needing to find a solution to stopping Canadian battering ram Nkem Ezurike, who has continued to shine for Michigan after her return from the U20 World Cup. Central Michigan’s defense has been up to the task more often than not this year, but halting the big forward in her tracks could be beyond them in this first round encounter.

Prediction: Michigan 1 – 0 Central Michigan

(Team Capsules after the jump.)

Michigan

How They Got Here – With a swarming defense and an opportunistic offense. The Wolverines finished with the Big Ten’s second best defense, giving up just nine goals in eleven league games and fifteen overall. Michigan looked to be in a bit of trouble after they dominated most of a soft non-conference schedule but lost the two games that really mattered, against Cal State Northridge and Long Beach State. Going unbeaten in their first eight league games put bubble concerns to rest though, and Michigan’s defense actually slowed down Penn State on the road, giving up just a single goal (from the penalty spot, at that) in a 1-1 draw with the runaway league champions. They would top Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament but went down to Ohio State for a second time in the semi-finals.

Best Result – The 1-1 draw against Penn State, making the Wolverines the only side to take points off of the Nittany Lions in league play.

Worst Result – Needing a result to give themselves a realistic shot at a Big Ten title, the Wolverines were left cursing an impotent display of finishing as they crashed to a 3-1 loss to Ohio State right before the PSU game.

Who’s The Boss – A polarizing figure in the world of women’s college soccer, Greg Ryan has nonetheless turned Michigan into a reputable side once more. The Wolverines took their lumps in a bad way for a while but have since rebounded nicely. Two College Cup appearances and a national final with Wisconsin were enough to set Ryan’s coaching star alight, though he struggled to recapture that form at either SMU or Colorado College. A stint as an assistant with the USWNT ended up with Ryan shockingly being appointed full-time after serving as interim boss for a transition period. One infamous Women’s World Cup semi-final later, and Ryan was trying to reignite his coaching reputation in Ann Arbor. His Wolverines have played uncompromising, physical soccer, and it’s worked to a point thus far.

Players To Watch

Nkem Ezurike (CF) – Few attackers are as important to their club’s offensive fortunes as Michigan’s battering ram up front. Ezurike comes into the NCAA Tournament with thirteen goals despite missing a handful of games while at the U20 World Cup. Nobody else on the club has more than four goals, meaning if Ezurike isn’t scoring, Michigan probably isn’t winning.

Haley Kopmeyer (GK) – Senior stopper in goal for the Wolverines has grown into a fine netminder for Ryan’s squad. Four-year starter has undoubtedly seen it all for her club and will be thirsting for a strong NCAA Tournament run after being a key to the rebuilding process in Ann Arbor. Strong and athletic shot-stopper still underrated but could be a star of November playing behind a stingy back four.

Shelina Zadorsky (CB) – Canadian U20 captain has been the rock at the heart of Michigan’s defense in 2012. Center-back stepped right into the starting lineup as a freshman in 2010 and hasn’t looked back. A little more involved with the offense this season, but defense still clearly at the top of her priority list as she looks to help continue the Wolverines’ strong defensive form through the NCAA Tournament.

Meghan Toohey (AM) – Returned to fine form after missing most of the end of last season through injury. Clutch goalscorer with three game winners so far this season. U.S. U23 international’s a vital link between defense and attack and could be an important secondary source of offense to guard against clubs just swarming Ezurike all match.

Strengths – Michigan knows who they are and plays the role with brutal effectiveness. The Wolverines are a strong, physical side who aren’t going to be outmuscled by many potential opponents. The defense has really blossomed, especially since the return of Zadorsky from the U20 World Cup. Additionally, in Ezurike, they’ve got a strong top attacking option who can be a handful for opposing defenses that can’t handle big, powerful forwards.

Weaknesses – While Ezurike has been a tower of power offensively, the Wolverines will probably be in trouble if the opposition can shut her down. Michigan has been entirely too reliant on the Canadian for offense for the most part, and her battering ram style is key to their style and scoring goals. Additionally, Michigan has often struggled this season against top opposition, the Penn State game being the general exception.

Will Lose When – Their generally one-dimensional offense and the above worries mean they could be in trouble against more versatile, experienced sides that can shut Ezurike down.

Upside – Sweet Sixteen

Downside – First Round

Famous Last Words – The Wolverines would seem to be well built for knockout soccer, with a stingy defense and a proven scoring option up front. But this club is also lacking in experience at this level and hasn’t really shown an ability to beat the top teams this year, though they’ve been more than competitive with many of them. Combine that with being overly reliant on Ezurike for goals, and it’s hard to see this bunch tallying more than a win or two in the Big Dance this season.

Central Michigan

How They Got Here – Deservedly so after some great showings in non-conference play. CMU may have taken the next step as a program thanks to non-conference wins over West Virginia and Dayton, coupled with a draw against Marquette before MAC play started. Given Toledo’s struggles, CMU looked like heavy favorites for the title, but a loss in their fourth game of the season put them on notice. Miami (OH) would prove to be this year’s nemesis, and defeat to the Redhawks at home not only snapped the club’s long unbeaten run on home turf, it all but ceded the league title to them. They’d win their final two games to seal second in the league and set up a rematch in the MAC Tournament final with two wins by clean sheet. The Redhawks would show they had CMU’s number this season though, downing them, 2-1, in the final. Despite that, the Chippewas heard their name called on Selection Monday and will be hoping to remind everyone of their ability against Michigan.

Best Result – The 2-0 win against West Virginia right before the Mountaineers stunned Stanford.

Worst Result – The two losses to Miami (OH) may have been damaging, but the defeat to Eastern Michigan in the league was most costly.

Who’s The Boss – Big shoes to fill have not been a problem so far for Neil Stafford, as the second-year boss seems to be building on the work former boss Tom Anagnost accomplished in his tenure with the club. Longtime boss at Assumption College, the Greyhounds made a couple of NCAA Tournament trips at DII level before Stafford made the move to join CMU as Anagnost’s assistant. Helping to architect the withering Chippewa defense as Anagnost’s #2, Stafford was an easy choice to ascent to the top chair once Anagnost left for Miami (FL). He’s more than repaid their faith thus far, with a 15-3-3 season in his debut while bringing home an at-large bid this season to go along with some great non-conference results.

Players To Watch

Bailey Brandon (D) – CMU defensive superstar hoping to close her career out with an NCAA Tournament win. Former MAC Freshman of the Year winner might’ve logged more Defensive Player of the Year awards if not for presence of Liesel Toth on same backline last few seasons. A constant in defense for the club but not afraid of getting forward in the least, with thirty shots this season. Has quite the task in trying to help slow down Nkem Ezurike on Saturday.

Laura Twidle (F) – Was a budding star in her first two seasons with the club, netting a combined fifteen goals before injury shot her down last season, limiting her to just six scoreless games. Has returned healthy this season, though scoring form of old has not appeared with her comeback. Canadian still looks like top scoring weapon on a side without a true spearhead up top though, and Stafford will be hoping Twidle can build on her three goals on the season in the NCAA Tournament.

Autumn Hawkins (M) – Midfielder was a potential star as a rookie, starting all but two games for the club but has struggled with injury since, missing most of 2010 and about half of 2011. Senior season has offered new lease on life, as she’s managed to stay healthy and again has been one of the club’s main conduits offensively, tied for the team lead with four goals. More importantly, she netted three times in the league, showing she’s probably coming into this competition in form.

Stefanie Turner (GK) – Chippewas have been cranking out great keepers for a while now, and Turner’s just another in a long line of great netminders. Split time with Shay Mannino in 2010 before inheriting the starting role for much of the season last year as a junior. Has ceded some minutes to Grace Labrecque but looks like the undisputed top option going into the Big Dance. Will likely need a big game for CMU to spring an upset.

Strengths – Defense, defense, defense. You probably know what you’re in store for when you CMU, but it doesn’t make it any easier to get around a brick wall of a rearguard that only gave up six goals in the league this season and nineteen in twenty-two in all competitions. Additionally, CMU didn’t shy away from challenges out of the league, which led to them taking some lumps before MAC play, but it also means they aren’t going to be awed by anyone going into this tournament.

Weaknesses – Scoring’s an issue with this club. It’s amazing they’ve made it this far with nobody scoring more than four goals, but that probably just underlines how great the defense has been in large part. They could ride that defense if they can take their chances in front of goal, but going far without a big scoring threat looks very dicey to say the least for CMU.

Will Lose When – The offense can’t take those chances and someone sneaks past the defense.

Upside – Second Round

Downside – First Round

Famous Last Words – Defense wins championships, and it might just give CMU enough to pull off a first round upset if they can swarm on Ezurike effectively. But defense can’t do it all, and the Chippewas still have to score goals. While it’s good that they have a lot of players that can punch them in, the lack of elite scoring talent could be glaring if the club has to play from behind. That in mind, it’s tough seeing this group pulling off more than one upset this season.

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