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Saturday, October 10 – 4:00 PM EST
Santa Clara (11-3-6, 4-1-3, 4th WCC) vs Long Beach State (12-7-0, 5-4-0, 5th Big West)
Both Santa Clara and Long Beach State will try to avoid thoughts of the monster looming over the cliff next weekend to just try and make the date when they meet on Saturday in each’s NCAA Tournament opener. The home side know all too well the type of challenge that Mauricio Ingrassia’s side can provide in this competition, having been pushed to the limit by the 49ers in the opening round a few seasons ago, a game in which many felt the Big West side was desperately unlucky to lose. That was in effect a coming out party for this 49er program who made a big run to the Elite Eight last season and netted some big non-conference wins this year to seal their spot in the Big Dance. But LBSU will be wary of a late dropoff in form that saw them miss out on the Big West Tournament. With that in mind, as well as a Bronco team that may have a point to prove after missing out on a national seed, it’s hard to look beyond the home side. Don’t expect it to be an easy ride though.
Prediction: Santa Clara 2 – 1 Long Beach State
(Team Capsules after the jump.)
Santa Clara
How They Got Here – Steadily, if nothing else. The 6-1 loss to Stanford was a pretty low point, and the club won just two of its first six, but they began to gain steam in mid-September, putting together a stretch of five wins in six heading into league play. With wins over Cal and Washington State and draws against Georgetown and San Diego State, the Broncos looked to be in good stead heading into WCC play. Form there was probably spottier than hoped for though, as they club drew against BYU in the opener and never managed to string together two league wins in a row. They’d lose just once in WCC action, to Pepperdine, but three league draws left them well off the pace in the race for the title, and eventually, a national seed.
Best Result – The 0-0 draw against BYU may not seem like much, but it’s much more than anyone else got out of Provo this season.
Worst Result – The loss to Stanford was an embarrassment considering the Broncos were though to have a great chance of victory coming into that game.
Who’s The Boss – At the helm for over a quarter of a century now, Jerry Smith is still searching for the right path to get SCU back into the upper echelon of the college game. A bulwark for excellence in the college soccer ranks for so long, Smith has delivered nine league titles ten College Cup appearances to the Bronco faithful. Finally made the breakthrough to win it all in 2001 against North Carolina after countless attempts to reach the top of the mountain. Had many close calls after that up until 2006′s first round upset against USC, whereafter it’s been a struggle since. One DNQ, two first round exits, a second round exit, and a Sweet Sixteen exit since 2006 have not done much to quiet cries that SCU are just another good team right now. Rise of local rivals Stanford has been a bitter pill to swallow, and Broncos face another potential early showdown with the Card this year.
Players To Watch
Sofia Huerta (F) – Mexican U20 international missed a chunk of the early part of the season at the U20 World Cup as one of El Tri’s most promising prospects. Made an immediate impact last season as a rookie, finishing second on the club with eight goals. Has seldom skipped a beat since, with six goals and five assists despite missing a handful of games. High volume shooter, but can create as well, as evidenced by her team leading mark in assists.
Julie Johnston (M) – U20 World Cup winner at center-back for the U.S. this year. The face of the program for the past three seasons, Johnston’s versatility has been key, enabling her to fill whatever need the Broncos need filled. After a handful of assists as a rookie, took on a more attacking role last year, netting nine goals for the club. Has been a big hitter since coming back though, netting eight goals in thirteen games and five n eight league matches. Leadership is undeniable, and her play will be key for any type of SCU run in this competition.
Allie Vernon (D) – Former U18 international is only Bronco to start every game this season. Has struggled with injuries in the past, including missing all of 2010 but has returned to health this year. Was one of the league’s top rookies early in her career and has slowly regained that form as she’s gotten back to health. Not much of a threat going forward, but her defensive role will be key if SCU’s to make any progress this November.
Meleana Shim (M) – U23 international has bloomed into one of the WCC’s best midfielders and a key contributor for the Broncos as a senior. After being one of the club’s top reserves as a rookie, has stamped out a starting spot since and is a key source of leadership. Hasn’t been a big threat offensively and has missed a handful of games as a senior but started all eight matches in the league. Team’s designated penalty taker as well.
Strengths – The Broncos are a damn good team from I-XI in the starting lineup and have seen their play grow once they got their U20 World Cup participants back. Huerta’s a real game changer up top for the Broncos when on form and could have a breakout tournament for SCU. Additionally, Johnston’s one of the best pure soccer players at this level and could will the club on to new heights. Smith’s also one of the shrewder coaches in the game, and will have a bag full of tricks for Stanford…if they manage to advance past the first round against Long Beach State.
Weaknesses – While SCU isn’t a lost cause offensively, there’s not a whole lot in the tank besides Johnston and Huerta going forward. Those two are the only Broncos with more than four goals, and even they have only combined for fourteen, though that number would have been invariably higher had they been here all season. SCU’s a much, much better team when playing with a lead in that regard, and being forced to chase a game could be their undoing.
Will Lose When – See above. Get the Broncos in a deep hole, and they aren’t likely to have the firepower to dig their way out.
Upside – Elite Eight
Downside – First Round (based on matchup)
Famous Last Words – There are a lot of teams with beef with the Selection Committee this year, but few with a case as good as Santa Clara’s. They deserved much, much better than being placed on a collision course with Stanford in the second round, though that also means they could be under the radar a bit. This Bronco side isn’t going to blow anyone away in all likelihood, but they’re a strong side with two big ticket players in Huerta and Johnston. If they manage to get past a pretty tough LBSU team in round one though, Stanford will be waiting for them in Palo Alto. If the Broncos can pull the upset, they could go a long way, but given SCU’s seeming mental block against the Card, you question whether they can upset the odds.
Long Beach State
How They Got Here – In rare circumstances. While clubs missing out on the ACC Tournament and making it into the Big Dance now seems like a common occurrence, some feared that LBSU’s missing the Big West Tournament would have been a kiss of death for the 49ers. But early season wins against Baylor and Michigan proved to be a saving grace for the Beach, seeing them squeak into the NCAA Tournament. It hadn’t looked like there’d be need for worry early on, but LBSU’s form began to erode as attrition took a toll. A 2-2-0 start in the league all but ended title hopes, while a defeat to rivals UC Irvine late in the season had LBSU needing a result in the season finale against Cal State Northridge just to qualify for the Big West Tournament. They’d go down in heartbreaking fashion but were given a reprieve on Selection Monday
Best Result – The 2-1 win over Baylor early on was a key in their making it to the Big Dance.
Worst Result – The 4-3 defeat to Cal Poly may have been exciting for neutrals, but it was a sign that LBSU wasn’t going to have it all their way in the league.
Who’s The Boss – 49er boss Mauricio Ingrassia has been a coaching fixture in Long Beach in some form or other for what feels like ages. Ingrassia cut his coaching teeth at JUCO power Long Beach City College, bringing home five California state titles in an enormously competitive region and brought home tons of titles for the Vikings. Five major trophies with LBSU through 2011 has shown the decision to bring Ingrassia aboard was a wise one for the 49ers, and he was able to mastermind a thrilling run last season, culminating with an appearance in the Elite Eight for the club. While it’d be a surprise if the 49ers fly that high this postseason, they’ve already shown they know how to win in this competition under Ingrassia.
Players To Watch
Nadia Link (LF) – U23 international has been one of college soccer’s true success stories these past few years. After a largely anonymous season as a rookie, began to heat up with some great performances in an eight goal season in 2010. Followed that up with an All-American season in 2011, with sixteen goals and ten assists as she spearheaded Long Beach’s dramatic run to the Elite Eight. Has understandably been hit with more defensive attention this season and has dipped back down to eight goals and nine assists, but still won Big West Offensive Player of the Year honors after four goals and six assists in the league. Needs a big tournament if LBSU are to move forward.
Alex Balcer (CB) – Former U15 international has been a rock at center-back for the Beach for four seasons. Won a starting job as a rookie and has been keenly involved ever since, having made eighty-three starts in four seasons. Really began to blossom last season with a Big West Tournament MVP honor and was again All-Big West First Team this season. Great size and good for the occasional goal. With the defense in a bit of flux due to injuries, needs to play big to try and keep opposing clubs off the board.
Eileen Maes (CM) – Looks like one of the most canny transfer additions of the season after starring as a junior with the 49ers. Had looked to be a budding star at Washington State but moved to the Beach via transfer after the 2011 season. Has adapted to her new surroundings with ease, leading the team with nine goals, including four match winners. Five of those have come in the league, and Maes’ attacking thrust from midfield will be key in keeping clubs from just sitting on Link all game long.
Kelsey Wilson (D/M) – Swiss army knife for the Beach can play a variety of roles but seems likely to feature in defense against a tough Santa Clara team. Began her career at Loyola Marymount in promising fashion but transferred and redshirted before reemerging as a player of fine talent at Long Beach. Two goals and four assists were a nice warmup for this season, where she’s been the club’s second leading assister with six, including five in the league.
Strengths – Her numbers might not reflect last season’s domination, but Link can deliver the goods front and was in fine form during league season. Smaller clubs need an offensive talisman who can go out and get goals, and Link is that player for the 49ers, with Maes also providing a good outlet for goals as well. Don’t discount the experience the club got last season in making a tournament run. That kind of winning experience could reap dividends this November.
Weaknesses – Well, LBSU didn’t exactly race across the line, did they? They were certainly deserving of a bid to the Big Dance, but fifth in the league doesn’t exactly speak well of their recent form. The offense is a bit reliant on Link and Maes as well. After those two, nobody on the club has more than three goals, meaning a club with a couple of lockdown defenders could create problems. Finally, the defense has struggled at time against top clubs, which could be problematic given their tough draw.
Will Lose When – A top team can keep Link and Maes at bay while taking advantage of a defense that has had problems against powerful opposition for most of the year.
Upside – Second Round
Downside – First Round
Famous Last Words – The Elite Eight looks like a dream more than anything else this season. The 49ers started out a house afire but suffered a real downturn of form with injuries taking their toll. They’ve got some fine weapons in Link and Maes, with Balcer a great talent in defense, but on the whole, these 49ers may not be able to match up all that well with the calibre of club they’re likely to face in the ruthless region they’ve been drawn into.
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