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Saturday, October 10 – 4:00 PM EST

Pepperdine (14-6-0, 5-3-0, 3rd WCC) vs Cal (15-5-0, 8-3-0, 3rd Pac-12)

This season’s shining example of the cruelty of NCAA geography comes in the form of a fairly ludicrous first round match between Pepperdine and Cal, who in a sane or just universe, would be both hosting first-round games. But with the NCAA’s aversion to costs, one of these clubs will see their season come to a very real end on Saturday afternoon in Malibu. Last season’s breakout team in many’s eyes, Pepperdine have reverted back to enigma form, capable of beating the likes of Boston College and Santa Clara while also capable of dropping games to the likes of Arizona State and Loyola Marymount. The Waves are an offensive machine when Plan A works, but the lack of a Plan B when it doesn’t has often led to some woeful performances this season. A club the calibre of Cal has made plenty of Plan A’s not work this season, and the Golden Bears will be eager to make up for a season opening loss to the Waves last season. The Berkeley club hasn’t proven itself able to beat the elite this season, but they’ve done a fine job against everyone else. Which Pepperdine side shows up on Saturday, the one that carves up defenses like a Thanksgiving turkey or the one that looks like a deer in the headlights, is likely to determine these two teams’ fates. I’m betting on it being closer to the latter.

Prediction: Pepperdine 0 – 2 Cal

(Team Capsules after the jump.)

Pepperdine

How They Got Here – In typical Pepperdine fashion, i.e. with a lot of ups and downs. The Waves certainly looked the part of a contender early, with some impressive wins but were brought down to Earth in a hurry with a dire defeat to San Diego State. The next few weeks would be inconsistent ones, with some decent wins over overmatched clubs, but with some tough defeats as well, including a 4-0 pasting at UCLA. A win at Boston College turned the season around though, and Pepperdine quickly found their way to at-large bid safety as WCC play took place, though their form wasn’t consistent enough for a real title challenge.

Best Result – The 1-0 win at Boston College with massive pressure on the Waves showed they weren’t about to revert back to their former mediocre ways.

Worst Result – The 4-0 humiliation at UCLA was in stark contrast to some of the exciting, close fought contests the two clubs had enjoyed in recent seasons.

Who’s The Boss – Long-time boss Tim Ward presided over a first golden age of Pepperdine soccer at the turn of the century, but some wondered if he was wearing out his welcome towards the end of the previous decade after five straight years out of the NCAA Tournament. 2011 was a breakthrough season though, as Pepperdine lifted the WCC title for the first year since 2002 and made it back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2005. Has gone some way in proving last season was not a fluke this year. Teams play direct, counterattacking football that can be a joy to watch but also leaves the club bereft of ideas offensively when the gameplan isn’t working.

Players To Watch

Lynn Williams (F) – A special talent in attack who may have been one of the key catalysts to Pepperdine’s revival these past few years. Eight goal, three assist sophomore season has been a solid follow-up to her WCC Freshman of the Year campaign last season. Started a bit slow but has warmed up in league play, though she is a bit of a gunner with close to a hundred shots on the season.

Michelle Pao (FB) – All-action full-back is one of the nation’s best attacking wide defenders. Team leader with nine assists won All-America honors last season and looks destined to contend for such honors again this year. Key to keeping defenses honest as opponents try to sit deep to defend against the deadly attacking band of forwards up top. Also not afraid to get stuck in, with three bookings to her name this year.

Roxanne Barker (GK) – South African international keeper came into this season fresh off a stint at the Olympics with her nation’s WNT. Has established herself as one of the best Waves to ever don the shirt in a distinguished four-year career. Has continued to be a forced in goal this season and will be vitally important to Pepperdine’s chances of any kind of postseason run this year.

Anisa Guajardo (F) – Mexican youth international has blossomed into one of the region’s top attacking threats. After a sluggish start to her Waves career, has been a key member of the Pepperdine revival these past two seasons. A threat both scoring goals and setting them up, with ten goals and eight assists in twenty games as a senior in 2012.

Strengths – The offense can be a crushing force at times, with Guajardo and Williams doing the damage against opposing defenses from up top and Pao ably supporting them as well. The Waves love to run at clubs with pace, meaning opponents with slow backlines could find themselves in a spot of bother against Pepperdine’s fleet footed attack. Having the experienced Barker in goal is a big boost as well.

Weaknesses – When this team has a bad game, it really has a bad game. They needn’t have shown up in feeble defeats to San Diego State and UCLA, while the wheels came off early against Loyola Marymount and late against Portland. The club has scored just one goal in their six defeats, meaning their attack is usually an all or nothing proposition. Additionally, the defense has looked pretty frail at times, adding even more pressure on the offense to perform.

Will Lose When – Plan A doesn’t work, because there’s not much of a Plan B if the offense isn’t rolling. Teams that can cope with the Waves’ front runners and that have a strong offense in return can do some damage against the WCC club.

Upside – Sweet Sixteen

Downside – First Round

Famous Last Words – Pepperdine’s fate, more than just about anyone else in this tournament’s is down to matchups. They really aren’t the type of team that’s going to be grinding out wins, meaning they probably need to draw a team with a frail defense and slow backline to have a great chance of advancing. Should the bracket break the right way for them, they could win a few games. But get a bad matchup, and they could be bounced in the first round for the second straight season.

Cal

How They Got Here – With a flourish in league play. After a non-conference slate that saw them pound smaller sides but fall short against the bigger teams, leaving them perilously close to the bubble, Cal came good late. Opening with a 2-1 defeat to Arizona seemed to wake the club up, as they promptly reeled off eight straight wins with seven of those coming in the league. Defeats to UCLA and Stanford meant the Golden Bears would have to settle for “best of the rest” status in the league though.

Best Result – Proved they were worthy of their place in the Pac-12 table with a convincing 2-1 win against Washington in mid-October.

Worst Result – The 2-1 defeat to Arizona to open up league play had some wondering if Cal was going to deal with bubble trouble come later in the season. Thankfully for them, it proved to be an outlier.

Who’s The Boss – Well traveled boss Neil McGuire has seemingly settled in Berkeley after previous stops as head coach at Mississippi State and Texas Tech. Did well, all things considered, at MSU, but record at Texas Tech left something to be desired, making his hire by Cal a bit of a gamble. Perceived underachievement in Berkeley with current USWNT superstar Alex Morgan and a turbulent 2009 season had some putting McGuire on the hot seat, but he and the Golden Bears have grown nicely since. Has done well to harvest excellent crop of young talent in past few seasons, and this could be their big stage to achieve a breakthrough in.

Players To Watch

Betsy Hassett (M) – Senior fireplug figures more into the offense in Berkeley than she does for the New Zealand WNT. Has made enormous strides over the past year, impressing at both college level and international level. The heartbeat of this Golden Bears team.

Ifeoma Onumonu (F) – Has heated up as the weather has gotten cooler, with most of her goals coming in league play, including a stretch of four in three games at one point. Great blend of power and pace makes her a potential star in the making for Cal.

Emily Kruger (GK) – Big keeper really began to come into her own last season and is now a U23 international after a solid sophomore season. Fine shot stopper and distributor whose form will likely be key for any deep run Cal makes in the Big Dance.

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Strengths – Cal’s offense has hit its stride in some style during the league season, consistently scoring multiple goals against everyone in its path. Onumonu’s growing into a dangerous spearhead, but the Golden Bears aren’t entirely dependent on her for goals, as evidenced by having nine players with multiple tallies this season. Additionally, Hassett’s a great leader in midfield, and Kruger in net should give the club some confidence despite a sometimes shaky rearguard.

Weaknesses – The Golden Bear defense isn’t exactly lock tight, which is a bit surprising since it seemed to be the club’s overwhelming strength going into the new season. Particularly worrying is the club’s defensive record against the top clubs, shipping three to Missouri while also conceding against many of the better club’s in the Pac-12. Additionally, the club lacks a bit of postseason experience, having failed to make a very deep run into the NCAA Tournament despite consistently qualifying for it.

Will Lose When – They run up against a veteran side that can put them to the sword early and force them to chase the game.

Upside – Elite Eight

Downside – First Round

Famous Last Words – The Golden Bears are clearly a quality side, but defeats to the likes of Santa Clara and Missouri do not bode well for their chances of a run to San Diego and the College Cup. They’ve got enough in the tank to exceed last year’s second round appearance, but further progress may be beyond them.

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