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Saturday, October 10 – 4:00 PM EST

(3) Duke (12-5-2, 5-3-2, 6th ACC) vs Loyola (MD) (12-5-4, 6-2-1, 3rd MAAC)

When the biggest storyline coming into a game may be the opposing coach coming up against her alma mater, you know you could be in for a blowout. Such is life in this one for Loyola (MD) coach Katherine Remy Vettori, who starred for Duke in the mid-nineties as a player. Vettori produced one of the surprises of Tournament Week when she leed her Greyhounds past fancied Marist and Fairfield en route to a return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2009. Her side are unlikely to find it a happy return though, as they come up against a Duke side desperate for their one last shot at living up to expectations after a disappointing season thus far. While Duke did seal a #3 seed, sixth in the league and an early ACC Tournament exit have heaped the pressure on this month to ensure that the season isn’t a total wash. With that in mind, the Blue Devils figure to come out with their hair on fire trying to put this one away early. Loyola (MD) were great on offense and defense in the MAAC mind you, but this ain’t the MAAC, with the home side likely to flex its muscles early and often in Durham.

Prediction: (3) Duke 5 – 0 Loyola (MD)

(Team Capsules after the jump.)

Duke

How They Got Here – Less emphatically than predicted before the season. The Blue Devils, tabbed by some to be potential national title contenders before the season put up saw gaudy offensive numbers but lost in devastating fashion to the best team they played before ACC play, Florida, which should have been a warning. A 2-2-1 start to league play was not what was expected for a team that should have been in a great spot to defend its ACC title, though the club did improve somewhat down the stretch, going 3-1-1 in the second half of the league season. Defeat to Wake Forest in the opening round of the ACC Tournament means the pressure is on now for an extended run to avoid this season becoming a total wash.

Best Result – Take your pick from two dismantling in Durham, the 5-2 win over Marquette in early September or the early October 4-2 triumph over Boston College.

Worst Result – The meltdown against Florida, where Duke led 2-0 after a half-hour, only to concede three unanswered goals to lose in extra time.

Who’s The Boss – Preeminent nice guy Robbie Church began as a men’s head coach for nearly three decades and three stops before making a surprising move to the women’s game with Charlotte in the mid-nineties. A strong stint with the 49ers was followed by a rather mediocre two-year venture with Vanderbilt, before Duke came calling in 2001. After a shaky first few years, it’s been mostly smooth sailing since then, with Duke earning a reputation as NCAA Tournament overachievers towards the end of the last decade before a new Golden Generation sparked last year’s league title and trip to the national title game. Facing as much expectation in 2012 as at any time in his coaching career.

Players To Watch

Laura Weinberg (LF) – Breakout season for the club’s third banana in attack last year, as with Pathman and Cobb out for various stretches, she’s had to carry a fair amount of the load. Consistency finally coming for Floridian who could hit stardom if she has a great tournament.

Natasha Anasi (CB) – Has cast a somewhat beleaguered figure this year as she has suffered on a leaky backline. Physical, all-conquering center-back of a season ago has instead seen her club’s defense shredded all too often by the opposition. Needs to show her leadership value in the Big Dance if club is to contend for honors.

Mollie Pathman (LB) – Not the quickest left-back, but the U.S U20 World Cup winner has been deemed as a necessary option in defense for the Blue Devils this year. Possesses great service and finishing ability and could be moved further up the pitch if the team’s chasing a goal.

Tara Campbell (GK) – Senior has been steady as the mail throughout her tenure as Duke’s #1 netminder. Chronically underrated keeper has kept Duke in some games this year and will be needed frequently in the later rounds in all likelihood if Blue Devils are to make a run at a title.

Strengths – Duke’s offense is as good as any in the nation. Between Weinberg, Kim DeCesare, Cassie Pecht, Kaitlyn Kerr, and potentially Pathman and Kelly Cobb, the Blue Devils’ have enough firepower to shoot down just about any team in the country. Duke has netted three or more goals in eleven games so far and are a good bet to add to that total early in the competition. For all the worries about the defense, having Campbell as the last line of defense is a positive as well. The trump card could be the experience factor though. With just about everyone from last year’s roster back this year, this bunch knows how to make a run through the NCAA Tournament and get to the final rounds.

Weaknesses – The defense. Oh lord, the defense. Duke’s been leaking goals all season, and it’s come back to bite them, with that defeat to Florida and a further loss to North Carolina and draw with Maryland standing out as key examples. The Blue Devils have conceded multiple goals seven times this year and kept just five clean sheets, with only a pair of those coming against ACC foes, against bottom feeders NC State and Clemson. The offense may be great, but they haven’t proven to be infallible, and the odds are very slim that this team can win six games with just their attack alone.

Will Lose When – Their overwhelming offense can’t compensate for their rickety defense in the later rounds.

Upside – National Champions

Downside – Sweet Sixteen

Famous Last Words – Some part of me wants to believe that Duke can still live up to their potential as a national title contender as was the case at the beginning of the season. But with Cobb hobbled by nagging injuries and the defense a potential disaster area, the odds of the Blue Devils walking away with the big prize have lengthened going into November. Their overall form has improved towards the end of the regular season, but it’s hard seeing a club that leaks so many goals ending up as the last team standing come December.

Loyola (MD)

How They Got Here – Somewhat unexpectedly after seeing the MAAC dominated by Marist and Fairfield all season. The Greyhounds opened up the season in pretty fitful fashion, drawing with the likes of Howard and Towson while being taken down by the better teams on their resume. Wins against clubs like Oakland and Saint Joseph’s showed the club had some talent, but few gave the much hope of a title run in the MAAC. A run of three wins in four in the league did raise hopes though, but defeats to both Marist and Fairfield in MAAC games had hopes tempered going into the postseason, though the Greyhounds did end up finishing third in the league. The Greyhounds would peak at just the right time though, beating Fairfield and Marist in the MAAC Tournament to bring home a stunning NCAA Tournament bid.

Best Result – The 2-1 win at Marist in the MAAC Tournament final that sealed a return to the big time.

Worst Result – The season opening draw with a woeful Howard team was particularly brutal.

Who’s The Boss – It’ll be a reunion of sorts for Katherine Remy Vettori come Saturday afternoon, as the former Duke star comes up against her alma mater. Also a member of the USWNT B-Team in the mid-nineties and a journeywoman professional player late in the decade, Vettori settled in as an assistant at Maryland and Penn before leaving the college game for a decade. A sensational return to Loyola (MD) came in 2008, and results have been promising to this point, with two league titles and two MAAC Tournament crowns. The Greyhounds been going through a bit of a barren spell going into this season, but the auto bid success reminded all that these Greyhounds still had plenty of fight within them.

Players To Watch

Nichole Schiro (F) – A living Loyola (MD) legend, Schiro’s been a goal machine during her four-year tenure with the Greyhounds. Nine goals as a rookie was only a warmup, as she netted twenty-eight combined the next two years, setting up hopes of a monster senior season. She’s mostly obliged, with fifteen goals, including eight in nine MAAC games. Nobody else on the club has more than three goals, so Schiro figures to be a marked woman on Saturday.

Didi Haracic (GK) – Junior Virginia native is the unlucky soul in goal who gets to try and keep Duke’s offense under wraps on Saturday. After sparing time as a rookie in 2010, won the job full stop last year, starting every match as a sophomore. Has continued to show excellent growth as a junior, taking her place as the league’s top netminder while play all but two halves of the 2012 season. Will need to play the game of her life on Saturday to keep it respectable.

Gigi Mangione (M) – Senior center midfielder made a name for herself as the MAAC Tournament’s MVP in her rookie year in 2009 and has been an integral member of the midfield ever since. Goals haven’t been easy to come by for anyone on this side other than Schiro, but she’s been one of the better options. Captain leads the club with six assists this season and is second on the club in shots but lacks size and will have to battle with physical Duke midfielders for space.

Kelsey Rene (D) – Tallest member of Greyhounds is the heart of a defense that faces a tough task on Saturday. Began career as an occasional starter at Florida International before transferring before 2011 season and earning a starting spot here. Scored four goals off of corners as a junior but has been more in check offensively this season. Needs to be at her best to cut out inevitable Duke flood of crosses in this one.

Strengths – On paper, Loyola (MD)’s got a fine spearhead in Schiro, who has proven herself to be a consistent scorer, albeit at a mid-major level. Whether she can step it up remains to be seen, but any team dreaming of a shock needs a consistent goal getter, which Schiro certainly is. The Greyhounds were also dominant at MAAC level on defense, giving up just five goals in the league.

Weaknesses – Beyond Schiro, the Greyhounds don’t have anyone that can put the ball in the back of the net consistently. Their next highest scorer has three goals, meaning Schiro likely faces a lot of double teams on Saturday. Vettori’s side also hasn’t really tested itself out of conference, playing just one game against a club in the uRPI Top 100 during the season, which ended up as a 2-0 loss to La Salle on home turf.

Will Lose When – Schiro gets marked out of the game and an opposing talented offense overwhelms the defense.

Upside – First Round

Downside – First Round

Famous Last Words – The Greyhounds have had a nice season, culminating with another major trophy and a return to the Big Dance. But they’re just too one-dimensional offensively to make an impact, and Duke aren’t likely to show much mercy after their disappointing ACC Tournament exit.

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