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Numbers in parentheses are RPI after Sunday’s matches.

Best uRPI Non-Conference Win

14 – Florida (Minnesota)
23 – Texas A&M (Arizona State)
28 – South Carolina (Duke)
29 – Arkansas (Utah State)
34 – Tennessee (James Madison)
50 – Georgia (Long Beach State)
53 – Ole Miss (Memphis)
53 – Vanderbilt (Memphis)
68 – LSU (USC)
74 – Kentucky (Louisville)
89 – Alabama (UAB)
151 – Missouri (UMKC)
164 – Auburn (Mercer)
212 – Mississippi State (Arkansas State)

Average uRPI Non-Conference Win

88.4 – Tennessee
90.7 – Arkansas
104.6 – Florida
114.6 – South Carolina
130.3 – Georgia
149.0 – Vanderbilt
149.2 – Kentucky
149.4 – Texas A&M
162.3 – Ole Miss
169.5 – LSU
198.0 – Alabama
199.3 – Auburn
251.8 – Missouri
265.3 – Mississippi State

(13) South Carolina

The Gamecocks have been consistent if nothing else. There’s nothing remotely bad on their record, though Boston University probably isn’t going to finish in the Top 25 of the final RPI. Is there a lot to stand out on their RPI right now? Not really once you get past the Duke win, which should also increase in value as the season goes on. SC have positioned themselves well for a national seed if they do well at all in the SEC, but their non-conference schedule may be a tick too weak to reel in a high national seed unless they come close to running the table, which probably isn’t happening.

(15) Florida

Might the draw with South Florida come back and haunt the Gators come November? Perhaps, but probably on in a high national seed sense, as they still look well positioned for a run at any national seed. The wins over Oklahoma State and Minnesota should still be decent come season’s end, while wins over Florida Gulf Coast and Florida International also have upside. There aren’t really any terrible losses, but the Gators probably need to finish near the top of the league if they’re to stand a chance at a potential top two seed come Selection Monday.

(18) Arkansas

Quantity? Quality? Both? Arkansas are an interesting case in that they’ve been racking up wins in non-conference play, but it’s arguable as to how much all of those wins are going to mean in the long run if they don’t put together a lot of victories in non-conference play. I don’t see either Nebraska or Utah State surviving in the RPI Top 50 come season’s end, while SMU and Tulsa might also see their profile’s degrade over time. A small silver lining may be TCU if they can win a bit in the Big XII. Still, I have doubts whether Arkansas will be anywhere near this RPI position if they don’t finish in the top half of the SEC.

(24) Georgia

Georgia’s fate at this is very much tied to that of Long Beach State’s. They’re highly unlikely to get a bump from any of their other non-conference wins, and considering Furman’s positioned at a slightly ludicrous #59 in the uRPI right now, their profile figures to degrade if LBSU doesn’t keep winning for the rest of the season. That win might be a ticket into the Big Dance if the Beach can get hot down the stretch, but otherwise, Georgia’s probably going to need mid-table in the SEC at the very least to stay out of bubble trouble.

(26) Ole Miss

The win over Memphis this past Sunday was crucial given the rest of the Rebels’ profile, though you figure the draw with USC will be meaningful in the end if the Trojans can get it together for league play after a recent downturn in form. The big problem Ole Miss has is they have a lot of dogs on the non-conference schedule, with the likes of Louisiana-Lafayette, Northwestern State, and UALR (coming up this weekend) likely to drag the overall profile down. Still the USC and Memphis results might be enough if both can perform in the league and if Ole Miss can finish in the upper-half of the SEC.

(37) Texas A&M

I’m guessing the Aggies didn’t expect to be this low at this point of the season, but the presence of UTSA and UMass, even in defeat, on their schedule is like an albatross at this point. The defeats to Duke and Pepperdine will probably help them out more than hurt A&M, but the Aggies’ profile is really counting on Arizona State, Baylor, and to a lesser extent, San Diego, to have good seasons to keep them in good standing in the RPI. The Aggies are probably going to be fine if they have a good season in the SEC, but a national seed isn’t as sure a thing as they might have hoped, while their hopes of a top two seed look increasingly dim.

(38) Kentucky

The Wildcats generally have a lot of upside in their RPI ranking at this point. There aren’t really any bad results unless Utah takes a big step backward in the league, while the wins over Louisville and West Virginia should look better come season’s end, with both languishing in the RPI right now but likely to perform well in their conferences. Dead weight in the form of Eastern Kentucky and UTSA is still weighing them down, but a good showing in the league would likely have UK safely in the NCAA Tournament, though missing out on Texas A&M and Ole Miss in the rotation will hurt their odds of a national seed.

(56) Tennessee

Tennessee might be the SEC’s official head cases this season, and if they aren’t, they’re neck and neck with Vanderbilt for the tag. The bad news is their non-conference profile looks like it has nowhere to go but down, with the likes of James Madison highly unlikely to stay in the RPI Top 50. The Lady Vols will be rooting stridently for UCF, the only thing they have approaching a good win, and hoping they can take care of business in the SEC. The losses and draw don’t look great on paper, but they probably won’t be catastrophic in the end if UT is able to bring in a finish in the top third of the league.

(60) LSU

I think the RPI is actually overrating LSU at the moment, as they are really riding one, solitary result: the win over USC. That might be enough in the end if the Trojans can stay consistent in the Pac-12, but the Tigers’ other wins at the moment are over a bunch of dogs, meaning the profile on the whole is pretty hollow. I’m not sure the losses to Stephen F. Austin and Minnesota aren’t going to erode on LSU’s profile by the end of the season either, meaning the Tigers are another side that’s going to have their NCAA Tournament hopes heavily contingent on a very good league season.

(87) Alabama

It’s a minor miracle that Bama is 2-5-0 and still in the Top 100 of the RPI, but it also means they have more than a pulse in an unlikely quest for an at-large bid. All of their losses bar the shocker to Mercer aren’t going to hurt them beyond the usual effect of having losses on the resume, but that one defeat to the A-Sun side may really weigh the Tide down if they can perform in the SEC. The UAB win was an absolute must have, but Alabama still faces a steep uphill climb. Being three games under .500 also puts them at a disadvantage, as they have to finish at .500 to even be eligible for an at-large bid.

(104) Auburn

The Tigers don’t have any truly atrocious losses, though I’m not sure that either Samford or Long Beach State don’t slide back a little once they reach conference play. More pressing is the need for some decent results, as the Tigers have a draw against Clemson and three pretty tepid wins at home against some middling mid-majors that isn’t going to move the needle much. There’s still a game against Southern Miss that might actually be worth more than first thought, but Auburn really needs to put together a lot of wins in SEC play to pull off another Houdini act and make the Big Dance.

(118) Vanderbilt

That the Dores have wins over Memphis and Wisconsin and a draw with Oklahoma State but are still out of the Top 100 should be pretty frightening for fans hopeful of an NCAA Tournament berth. Vandy’s loss to UAB isn’t hurting it as much as some might have foreseen before the season, but defeat to Rice was an unexpected blow to the club’s RPI. The draw with Wisconsin-Milwaukee was another opportunity missed, but the mere presence of Georgia State on the docket has also proved toxic to Vandy’s RPI. With some of the big results above though, Vandy does have some breathing room some of their rivals don’t, meaning if they can just get on the bubble, they might have a good chance at crashing the Big Dance.

(150) Missouri

When schedule balance goes terribly wrong. Give the Tigers credit for trying to schedule some challenges in there, but the cold truth is Missouri is cooked in their quest for an at-large bid if it comes down to their non-conference schedule. Mizzou’s lost to every team with a pulse they’ve run across, and the teams they have managed to beat have been brutally bad, almost as woeful as league doormats Mississippi State. The club does miss out on potential RPI anchor Alabama in league play, but they also miss out on Ole Miss, a team that could have provided a boost if the Tigers could have won. To sum up, Missouri’s going to need a lot of wins, a lot of quality wins, in the league to stand a chance of surviving bubble scrutiny.

(156) Mississippi State

Yeah, I’m not sure you need me to be telling you this, but Mississippi State’s at-large bid hopes are rather bleak. None of their losses are grossly offensive at the moment, though it’s difficult to envision Furman, South Alabama, and Southern Miss keeping up their current pace in the RPI. Then again, maybe the fact that MSU is losing to Furman, South Alabama, and Southern Miss is a clue that these Bulldogs face a steep road to get close to the bubble. The wins MSU does have don’t mean much in the RPI, and the Bulldogs would have to shock the SEC multiple times to even come near the bubble in November.

Preseason Prediction

1. Texas A&M
2. Tennessee
3. Missouri
4. Florida
5. Ole Miss
6. LSU
7. Alabama
8. Kentucky
9. South Carolina
10. Auburn
-
11. Georgia
12. Vanderbilt
13. Arkansas
14. Mississippi State

Post Non-Conference Prediction

1. Texas A&M
2. Florida
3. South Carolina
4. Kentucky
5. Ole Miss
6. Tennessee
7. Missouri
8. Georgia
9. Arkansas
10. LSU
-
11. Vanderbilt
12. Auburn
13. Alabama
14. Mississippi State

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