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NCAA Soccer – The First XI for October 6, 2013 – (3) North Carolina vs (16) Maryland [UPDATING]

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Sunday, October 6, 2013 at 3:50pm EDT

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Check back late in the afternoon for a preview of Stanford-Arizona State…maybe. I’m *gasp* actually going to a game and may not be back in time to write a preview.

(3) North Carolina vs (16) Maryland – 1:00 PM

It’s been a while since North Carolina fell short against Florida State in its last true test in the ACC. When UNC faced the Seminoles, defense ruled the day for both teams, but the Tar Heels found their offense sputtering to a shocking degree, leading to a 1-0 defeat, the club’s second straight loss in the league, quite the rarity for the dominant UNC program. A lofted cross-shot from Jamia Fields and some bad goalkeeping from Bryane Heaberlin was all FSU needed to emerge with three points, putting the Heels’ title hopes in jeopardy. Since, the club’s won two straight on the road against lesser opposition in the league to keep those hopes alive, but there aren’t too many more gimmes on the rest of the slate, with the team hosting a very dangerous Maryland side on Sunday. The team was seldom troubled in their last match against Pittsburgh, a 1-0 win which saw the Heels outshoot Pitt 34-4, but the defending national champs spurned chance after chance to put the game out of reach after Paige Nielsen had given the club an early lead. Such wasteful finishing is likely to be punished by a Maryland side that has beaten UNC three straight times in the regular season. For whatever reason, the Heels bring out the best in Maryland, something Carolina will be well aware of going into Sunday. The next few games are pretty winnable, so UNC will want to continue to build momentum before a very hard closing stretch in the league.

Maryland’s not in as much trouble as some of its ACC brethren like Duke and Boston College being two games over .500, but the Terps still have challenges against the likes of North Carolina and Florida State still on the docket. All things considered, Maryland’s probably more worried about a potential national seed than just getting an at-large bid at this point, which is quite the turnaround from just a few weeks earlier when the Terps had lost three of four and had only one quality win, that coming against Clemson. While the club still has won just three of eight, a win against Wake Forest was vital for their NCAA Tournament hopes, and avoiding a big banana peel against NC State on Thursday was equally important for their hopes. In truth, Maryland didn’t have much trouble in running all over the Wolfpack, dominating on the stat sheet all day and getting two assists from Megan Gibbons and Hayley Brock’s ninth of the season en route to an easy 3-0 win. Considering Maryland’s recent success against North Carolina and the Tar Heels’ offensive woes the past few weeks, the visitors will surely fancy their chances for another upset. But despite the encouraging performance against NC State, Maryland will still be wary of an off day. They’ve been shutout by Santa Clara, Stanford, Notre Dame, and Virginia, while UND and Stanford both dished out beatings as well, showing when things go bad for Maryland, they can go very, very bad indeed.

(39) Wisconsin vs (50) Ohio State – 12:30 PM

The race for the Big Ten title already looks like a two horse race between Penn State and Nebraska, but there’s still plenty to play for in the league as they aim to lock down NCAA Tournament berths. The Badgers had their shot at keeping themselves in the title race on Friday against Penn State, falling 2-1 in Madison. UW fought the Big Ten titans tooth and nail for much of the night but dug themselves a sizable hole late in the first half, giving up a pair of goals to Tani Costa and Maya Hayes to go into the break down 2-0. Wisconsin would pour on pressure in the second half and got a goal from Rose Lavelle but were denied by the woodwork on a few other occasions, meaning they’d come away empty handed from the derby showdown. Though their title hopes may be all but over, Wisconsin still has work to do if they want to firm up their at-large bid status. Their bubble results are adequate for the most part, but if the bubble contracts, the Badgers aren’t guaranteed of anything if they don’t add a few more quality results to the ledger. Ohio State’s still sagging in the RPI, but beating them would still have the effect of knocking back a potential bubble rival. The Wisconsin defense, which had shown signs of improvement before the PSU game will need to do better after conceding a few against the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State’s offense isn’t the most consistent, but still a potent threat on their day.

That Ohio State offense has been firing blanks in the past few games, putting the club’s NCAA Tournament hopes in danger. Some of the club’s earlier scoring woes seemed to have been solved when the club scored four goals in its two opening Big Ten games but have since been shutout in two straight. The fact that those shutouts came at the hands of Purdue and Minnesota, two teams who aren’t exactly being picked to dominate in the league, has to be a serious red flag for the Buckeyes. OSU comes into this one very much on the bubble, as the scoreless draw against Minnesota on the road on Friday may actually be the club’s best result on the resume, which has to be worrying going into the stretch run of the league season. The Buckeyes certainly didn’t fail to score through lack of trying though, as Kayla Varner had four shots on goal, and she and Nichelle Prince both hit the bar. The fact that OSU wasn’t able to finish is clearly worrying OSU head coach Lori Walker, who claimed her side needed “10,000 hours of finishing” after the scoreless draw with the Gophers. The Buckeyes still have Wisconsin, Penn State, Nebraska, and Michigan left on the docket, meaning the club has a lot of chances to move up in the RPI, but it also means there’s a lot of danger for a team that lies precariously placed on the bubble.

(19) Boston College vs (28) Duke – 1:00 PM

Call it a potential NCAA Tournament elimination game, as two teams with serious concerns about getting to .500 meet up in Newton on Sunday afternoon. The home side are coming off a potentially traumatic loss on Thursday down in Florida against Florida State. The Eagles looked to be on their way to another regular season upset of the Seminoles after taking an early 2-0 lead through McKenzie Meehan, who upped her goal total to twelve on the season. The floodgates would open in the second half though, as Florida State stormed back to score three unanswered. BC would equalize through Zoe Lombard but conceded a late penalty and fell to a potentially costly 4-3 defeat. The good news is the club’s offense still looks to be deadly with Meehan looking like one of the ACC’s best forwards as of late. The bad news? The defense got run over by FSU, giving up multiple goals for the sixth time in twelve games, including for the second straight time in the ACC on Thursday. Continued defensive performances in that vein are going to be hazardous to the team’s postseason health. With Duke and North Carolina next up on the docket, BC’s going to need some rapid improvement if they’re to stay in the at-large bid discussion. At the same time though, results like the win over Wake Forest show what BC can do on their day.

Duke enter this one in much deeper trouble being a game under .500 without the quality win that BC has. The Blue Devils have been in a dreadful stretch after winning three of four to open up the season. Since, Duke has won just one of eight and are winless in their last five, pushing them to the brink on many fronts. The defense, which looked solid if nothing else early in the season, has been beaten around since mid-September, giving up eleven in their last five matches, though technically, last Sunday’s 1-1 draw was their best defensive performance since shutting out Miami (FL) in the league opener. And even with that, they were in a losing position going into the final twenty minutes before being rescued by a late thunderbolt from Kelly Cobb. It was one of Cobb’s best performances of the season from a stat sheet perspective, and getting the Alaskan junior firing down the stretch is going to be key considering neither Kim DeCesare nor Laura Weinberg have been able to replicate last season’s explosive scoring form. The next four games are unforgiving, with BC, Maryland, Clemson, and Notre Dame all on the road. But Duke’s ACC form thus far has removed any subtlety to their situation. They need points on the road to keep their postseason hopes alive, and getting three in Newton on Sunday would be a good start for their chances of a late season flourish.

(54) South Florida vs (34) UConn – 1:00 PM

Back in the bubble picture, South Florida will try to hold on to the tail of the AAC title race against title rivals UConn on Sunday. The Bulls might be sweating a bit more in recent days, as their signature draw against Florida suddenly looks a lot less valuable after the Gators’ recent downturn in form. USF isn’t in a position where they can just depend on their prior results this season though, and they need to be on form down the stretch to keep themselves in the mix for an at-large bid. Friday was a must win game for those purposes against a Temple side that would have torpedoed USF’s RPI if the Bulls didn’t win. All things considered, it wasn’t exactly the most convincing win for the Bulls, even if they did enjoy a healthy advantage in every statistical category on Friday. USF would stumble into the half tied at 0-0 and were forced to sweat it out a bit, needing Cristin Granados’ early second half goal to hold up. It did, but USF’s shooting was more miss than hit, with the likes of Demi Stokes and Sharla Passariello not enjoying their best nights in front of goal against the Owls. The defense did well to shut down Temple’s attack though, leaving goalkeeper Christiane Endler untroubled for much of the night. It’s the D that’s probably going to have lead them to victory on Sunday again, as the club hasn’t scored multiple goals since the beginning of September against Niagara. If that defense can’t slow down Rachel Hill and the Huskies, USF might find it hard to emerge with three points on Sunday.

Opponents UConn were humbled on Friday against UCF in a potential title decider, the defense getting abused to the tune of four goals, in the worst defensive performance for the Huskies since their season ending loss to Marquette last season. UConn had entered that showdown with the Knights on a strong stretch of four wins in five, though the club also hadn’t been on the road in any of those matches. The defensive form these past few weeks has to be a concern, even discounting Friday’s showing. After getting plonked by Wisconsin in the opener, UConn seemed to have turned things around, but having conceded eight in four and keeping no clean sheets in AAC has to be a big worry with the likes of Louisville, Rutgers, and Memphis to come. UConn had actually been holding their own for a half, going into the half down by just a single goal, but the wheels fell off in shocking fashion within the first quarter of an hour in the second half, the club conceding three goals in a little over two minutes to put the game well out of reach. Scoring talisman Rachel Hill would net a consolation late, but it was still not nearly enough. USF’s not going to be able to win in a shootout against the Huskies in all likelihood, which is UConn’s most likely path to victory, but at the same time, the Storrs side may not be able to emerge triumphant in a defensive slugfest. There’s a lot of room for momentum in the next few weeks with USF, Temple, and Cincinnati as the next three opponents, but UConn also knows an upset or two could see them slip back towards the bubble.

(55) Alabama vs (56) LSU – 2:00 PM

A few weeks ago, Alabama looked like a dead team walking. They had just been crushed in their league opener against Florida and had now lost five of six, scoring just two in that span while conceding fourteen. A light seemed to go on for the Crimson Tide though, with the club having stunned the establishment in the SEC to win three straight and could take at least a share of the league lead with a win on Sunday. It’s safe to say that the defense is still terrible (nine conceded in four league games!), but the offense has finally woken up after starting the season in a deep slumber. The club had scored multiple goals in just one of eight opening games while also being shut out five times. Over the last three games though, UA has scored a whopping twelve goals. Dutch forward Pia Rijsdijk finally started scoring after a frigid start, netting four in the past three games, including the club’s second on Friday. Laura Lee Smith, a threat on set pieces, and Molly Atherton have also been proficient in front of goal, while Katie Bourgeois has stepped up with three assists in the past three games. Reserve Dani Herubin stepped up in a big way Friday as well, with a goal and an assist. I’m not sure the defense can stop anyone, as they also survived a ton of close shaves against Georgia, but if the attack stays red hot, they might just be able to complete the Great Escape. The team is still a game under .500 with seven to play in the league though, meaning every point is vital, and an upset on Sunday would be huge for their postseason hopes.

LSU’s situation wasn’t quite as dire going into the league season, but defeats against BYU, Minnesota, and Stephen F. Austin had poured cold water over the enthusiasm in Baton Rouge after a star-studded recruiting class had come to town. But the Tigers had still finished non-conference play with a battling win against Rice to give them a little momentum which they’ve more than kept as they’ve risen to the top of the SEC table after four rounds. The defense hasn’t exactly been much to shout about (as you might expect from a club that shipped four to SFA), giving up seven goals in four league matches, but the offense seems to be rounding into form after some inconsistent displays earlier in the season. Summer Clarke was able to double her season goals total with a hat trick to power LSU to a wild 5-3 win against Arkansas on Friday. The Canadian forward combined well with fellow rookie Emma Fletcher, who assisted on all three of Clarke’s goals and is already looking like one of the league’s brightest young prospects. The defensive showing was ghastly though, giving up three goals and ten shots on goal, which doesn’t exactly bode well considering how hot their opponents have been in front of goal. There’s no indication that the club’s Indian Summer on top of the SEC table can’t continue with three winnable games coming up, but they’d best take advantage of their chances now. A finishing stretch of Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, and Texas A&M could well crush LSU’s title ambitions.

(35) Georgia vs (46) Ole Miss – 2:00 PM

Oh, the difference a few matches can make. These two sides, seemingly flying just a short time ago, now find themselves perhaps battling for their postseason lives in a crunch Sunday afternoon showdown in Athens. Georgia’s probably in much better shape, at least as far as their NCAA Tournament fate is concerned, thanks to a priceless home win against South Carolina to open up league play. But back-to-back losses to Kentucky and Alabama have seen the club’s RPI begin to take a sharp downward turn in the past week. The defeat the last time out to the Crimson Tide was especially jarring, as the club’s defense gave up multiple goals for the first time since their 2-0 defeat against Texas to open up the new season. The Georgia attack hammered the Alabama goal for much of the match on Friday but were forced to play from behind twice as the Crimson Tide made the most of their opportunities in taking the lead twice before netting the golden goal in extra time. Alabama was able to hold the previously red hot Marion Crowder to just a single off-target shot all night, and the rookie surely must do better down the stretch for Georgia if they’re to keep from sinking down the SEC table. The schedule is very forgiving after Sunday with games against Auburn and Mississippi State ahead, but that will provide little solace if Georgia can’t snap their two game losing streak against the visiting Rebels on Sunday.

Ole Miss apparently is feeling it’s their destiny to be the SEC’s Trick or Treat team in that they look capable of crushing opponents or being crushed with little rhyme or reason. The ups and downs over the past few weeks must be gut churning for the Rebel faithful, with the club coming back to beat Arkansas, getting its doors blown off by Florida before destroying Auburn just a few days later. The bad Ole Miss showed up against Tennessee on Friday. For the second half at least, as the Rebel defense was shredded repeatedly on the counter attack by an opportunistic Tennessee offense. The heavy defeat kept up with a theme that has been percolating in many matches this season for the Rebels, with the Oxford club creating a slew of chances but finding themselves unable to display the cutting edge in front of goal necessary to bury teams. Team talisman Rafaelle Souza had a quiet night by her standards on Friday, with just two off-target shots to her name. The stage seems to be set for a very tense finish to the regular season for the Rebels. They’re riding the bubble precariously at the moment, needing more quality results to pull themselves away from the danger zone. A win on the road at Georgia wouldn’t settle matters definitively, but it would make their lives a lot easier in the stretch run.

(24) Minnesota vs (1) Penn State – 2:00 PM

Minnesota have not made the best of starts to the league campaign, with one win in four hardly the beginning to Big Ten play the team would’ve liked after getting out to such a hot start in non-conference play. A set of defeats to Indiana and Michigan State was most definitely not what was expected or needed, but Minnesota’s made progress against better opposition, topping Michigan and drawing with Ohio State on Friday. They appear to have tightened up the defense a bit since shipping three to Michigan State and conceding in five of six, having kept both the Wolverines and Buckeyes off the board in their last two matches. The Gophers perhaps rode their luck a bit against Ohio State on Friday in miserable rainy and windy conditions. OSU outshot Minnesota by almost a 3:1 ratio, put seven shots on goal, and hit the woodwork, but the home side persevered to claim a hard fought point. Despite the battling effort, the Gophers’ lack of attacking punch thus far in Big Ten play has to be seriously worrying. One goal in four is a ghastly return, and more of the same is likely to see the Gophers home early for the holidays in lieu of a postseason trip. The omens certainly aren’t good ahead of Sunday with Penn State the opponent, as Minnesota doesn’t seem too likely to win in an offensive slugfest against the Nittany Lions. They’ll have to dig deep to get anything out of this one, but Minnesota’s defied expectations already for much of 2013.

Penn State continued their march towards another Big Ten title with their fourth straight league win and ninth overall by edging past Wisconsin on Friday night in Madison. The victory was the club’s seventh straight win with multiple goals and put the club on fifteen goals in four league matches, a staggering pace. It’s not been quite as staggering, but the club’s defensive form hasn’t exactly been worth shouting about. PSU has now conceded in six straight matches, though they’ve at least slowed down in conceding goals from a three game stretch when they conceded two in each. Wisconsin proved to be one of the Nittany Lions’ toughest tests in a while, despite going behind 2-0 before the break. Tani Costa continues to be a super sub du jour, now having netted a handful of goals this season, while Maya Hayes continues to score without abandon, netting her thirteenth goal of the season while assisting on Costa’s goal for good measure. When you consider Raquel Rodriguez and Mallory Weber combined for five shots on goal themselves, it makes for a frightening specter for opposing defenses. Temporarily cured of their habit of spotting opponents leads, Penn State’s forgiving defense means even a side with a light scoring offense like Minnesota has a chance, though the Nittany Lions will fancy their attack’s chances against anyone in the nation.

(17) Nebraska vs (21) Michigan – 2:00 PM

Nebraska will try and keep up the pressure on their fellow co-leader in the Big Ten, Penn State, by taking down preseason league title contender Michigan on Sunday. The Cornhuskers have been one of the nation’s surprise teams thus far and come into this one on a seven match win streak, including a 4-0-0 mark in the Big Ten after Thursday’s 2-1 win over Iowa. The Huskers took an early lead through Katie Kraeutner, got pegged back and got a fortunate deflection off a corner kick for an own goal that ended up as the winner for John Walker’s side. The defense did give up nineteen shots and conceded for the fourth straight game, but the offense continued to produce, netting multiple goals for the fourth straight game and the sixth in seven matches. The Huskers have only been shutout once this season, at BYU, and that feels like an age ago, as Nebraska has grown into a credible force in the weeks since. There’ve been plenty of results worth nothing this season, but a win over the fancied Wolverines would probably rank right up there with the wins over Denver and Illinois. The defense for the Huskers has been leaky for much of the season though, and it’s going to be interesting to see how the club plans to shut down Nkem Ezurike up top. The run in is particularly brutal, meaning the Huskers need to keep winning if they’re to stand a chance of making the October 27 clash with Penn State a title decider. Three points against Michigan would bring them closer to that very goal.

The Wolverines kept themselves afloat for the moment in the Big Ten title race on Thursday by gritting out a 2-1 win over rivals Michigan State in East Lansing. The victory helped ease some of the concerns that had sprung up after a stretch of just one win in four that had carried through into the start of Big Ten play. It was a reasonably comfortable win for the Wolverines, as they scored two goals within a quarter of an hour and chased starting keeper Courtney Clem in short order. On the whole, Michigan’s finishing was, again, ragged, as the club put just five of twenty shots on frame. Particularly concerning was the fact that the club’s offensive talisman, Nkem Ezurike, was shut down entirely, kept without a shot for one of the few times of her college career. That Michigan still managed a big win probably speaks well of the Wolverines, but Greg Ryan will surely hope that his star striker can get back on track in a hurry. It’s going to take a lot for Michigan to get themselves back in the title race in the Big Ten, but the good news is Nebraska and Penn State are next on the docket, meaning head-to-head wins could swing the title race back in the club’s direction. The bad news is that both matches are away from Ann Arbor, which could have the Wolverines facing an uphill struggle towards three points in each showdown. Michigan’s a bit more experienced with the big stage recently than Nebraska though, meaning they’ll probably fancy their chances of dealing the Huskers a first league defeat in 2013.

(4) Virginia vs (51) Clemson – 2:00 PM

It wouldn’t quite be one of the biggest upsets in recent college soccer memory, but if Virginia fails to turn Clemson over, it’d still be a major shock, such is the reputations of the two clubs at this point. UVA would be wise to not overlook this year’s Tigers though, who have proven to be a completely different animal than in past seasons. Of course, Virginia has done likewise, opening up with eleven wins on the trot to retain their mark as the only DI club in the nation with a 100% record going into Sunday. They showed the slightest signs of vulnerability last Sunday as they were held to just one goal for the first time all season against Maryland. The Terps likely fancied their chances considering UVA had conceded in their last three in the league, but Virginia got back to their defensive best, netting their first shutout since September 12. They limited the Terps to just three shots on goal, while the nation’s deadliest super sub, Brittany Ratcliffe, netted her seventh of the season, which would be the only goal of the match. Virginia will obviously have Notre Dame and Wake Forest on the back of their minds a tiny bit, in a big week coming up, but the Cavs better not take Clemson lightly. Just ask Florida State how tough Clemson can be on a Sunday afternoon. UVA are obviously flying, but they have to keep their foot on the pedal to continue racing to a league title and a #1 seed.

Clemson have made amazing strides this season and can probably lock up an NCAA Tournament spot with just one more big result to their name if they can take care of business down the stretch. Of course, if the Tigers can do the impossible and overturn Virginia in Charlottesville, they’ll probably be able to think beyond just merely qualifying for the postseason. Besides the imposing opposition on Sunday, Clemson also has to get beyond a draining and disappointing result against Virginia Tech on Thursday. Truthfully, the Tigers were probably second best after the first half and couldn’t hold on for a priceless away draw, going down to a golden goal early in extra time. The defense did well to stifle VT for much of the match, but the sometimes fitful offense fired blanks for much of the match, finishing with just a couple shots on goal in a little over ninety minutes. Clemson’s at three games over .500 right now but has a deadly schedule the rest of the regular season, with the Cavs, Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina, and Notre Dame as five of their seven games remaining. 8-8-3 looks too predictable, even if it makes a lot of sense, but the draw against Florida State showed Clemson is plenty capable of serving up their share of the unpredictable. Getting an unlikely result in Charlottesville would not only be another feather in Clemson’s cap but could also turn the ACC title race on its head.

(30) Tennessee vs (9) South Carolina – 3:00 PM

Tennessee have been hard to figure out thus far, though one does get the sense that the Lady Vols are a hell of a lot better in Knoxville than away from it. At home, they’ve shutout both Texas A&M and Ole Miss, while getting just one point out of away matches against LSU and Alabama. Coming into Friday off the back of a stunning 4-2 defeat to Alabama, the pressure was on the Lady Vols to deliver a big response at home against Ole Miss to keep themselves in what looks like a wide open SEC title race. The odds looked against them when Hannah Wilkinson was forced off after twenty-five minutes and didn’t return. But UT rallied in the second half with three counter-attack goals, as reserve Aaran Perry came off the bench to set up two goals, while Cheyenne Spade was a big threat with three shots on goal. The victory not only likely restored some confidence after a trying away weekend, it also drove the club back up the RPI and above the bubble mix for the moment. Already in a great position thanks to their away victory against UCF, a win over South Carolina would not just likely wrap up an at-large bid, it could drive the Lady Vols towards a national seed. South Carolina’s the biggest RPI fish on the club’s schedule right now, and UT will be eager to take advantage of their excellent home form before finishing up in the league with four of six away.

South Carolina have gone from strength to strength after being upset in the league opener against Georgia a few weeks ago. Home wins against Auburn and Arkansas didn’t quite move the needle considering SC were widely expected to challenge for a league title after their excellent non-conference season. Defeating Florida on the road would have been a way to gain instant credibility in the league title race though, and SC obliged, getting in a shocking winner off a headed corner kick from Taylor Leach, taking advantage of the club’s traditional strength on set pieces and an emerging weakness from Florida in defending them. It was a long, grueling slog that probably sapped a whole lot from South Carolina, though they rotated fresh legs in ad nauseum. It’s going to take a whole lot for the club to make a quick turnaround to Knoxville and emerge with three points against a strong home side like Tennessee. The Gamecocks have shown they know how to grind teams down though, and they know that victory would be another big step towards picking up the club’s second SEC title. A win here would also be more ammunition in their quest for a high national seed come November.

(2) Stanford vs (40) Arizona State – 8:30 PM

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