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AAC

LOCK – UCF, Louisville
BUBBLE – Rutgers, UConn, South Florida
BUBBLE (DANGER) – Memphis

UCF will be aiming for a high national seed and the opportunity to host through the Sweet Sixteen, though the Knights may not compare favorably with some of their ACC rivals in that regard. A national seed should still be within reach though. Louisville is also in the running for a seed, though their defeat to UCF really hurt those chances. Rutgers’ torrid away week did not hurt them too much, but defeat to UConn at home could have them fidgeting a bit going into the AAC Tournament. UConn has a paucity of quality results and really needs to get something out of the game against Rutgers and really can’t afford a loss to Memphis. South Florida will be as happy as anyone with Florida’s revival and might be able to squeak into the field if they just take care of business against SMU and Houston. Memphis has basically spurned every opportunity in front of them to make up big ground in the RPI and pretty much has to win their remaining two league games and make a deep AAC Tournament run to stand a chance.

Atlantic 10

BUBBLE (DANGER) – La Salle, VCU

La Salle’s won just two of its first four league games, and the title challenge that most thought was inevitable is probably in some severe doubt, though the schedule is pretty pliable for the most part. VCU’s won three of five and will also be looking to run down leaders Dayton, though they don’t play the Flyers in the regular season. As stated before, neither of these two sides are viable at-large bid contenders.

ACC

LOCK – Virginia, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
BUBBLE – Duke, Maryland, Notre Dame, Boston College, Clemson
BUBBLE (DANGER) – Syracuse, Miami (FL)

I’d say that the top four ACC teams are all still in contention for a #1 seed, while Wake Forest should be in the running for a high national seed as well. The intrigue is behind them, with everyone scrambling to get to Mount .500. Duke looks to be in great shape if they take care of business after beating Notre Dame and are basically a shoo-in for the tournament, even if they miss the ACC Tournament. Notre Dame has slipped precipitously, but their concerns are more about a national seed than the bubble. Maryland and Boston College are likely sweating severely, standing at .500 and a game above .500 respectively. Both should make it in if at the .500 cutline, but that’s hardly a guarantee. Clemson’s loss to Wake Forest really could be costly. The Tigers are guaranteed of being at .500 if they take care of business against Miami (FL) in the regular season finale, but they might need a result against either UNC or Notre Dame to get back onto the bubble. Syracuse and Miami (FL) are both alive technically, but both probably need more than one result down the stretch to get onto the bubble.

Atlantic Sun

BUBBLE (DANGER) – Florida Gulf Coast

They’ve probably had a few more hiccups than expected in the league, but Florida Gulf Coast are probably headed for another league title with one league game left. Let’s just hope they don’t get lumped back to Gainesville again for the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

Big XII

LOCK – West Virginia
BUBBLE – Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Texas
BUBBLE (DANGER) – Baylor

I suspect there’s a lot of nervousness around Big XII parts right now, as the nightmare scenario of the league getting a single team into the NCAA Tournament is a reality if West Virginia completes a double in the Big XII Tournament. I suspect Oklahoma State will be fine without a meltdown down the stretch, but they certainly aren’t out of danger yet. Texas Tech’s season probably comes down to its game against West Virginia this Sunday. Get a result there and the team is probably in the field. If not, there’ll be a lot to do in the Big XII Tournament. Texas probably needs at least two wins in the regular season/conference tournament to even stand a chance, and their profile’s weak as well. Baylor needs a mathematical miracle. Win out in the regular season and win a few games in the Big XII Tournament, or else it’s an early trip home for the holidays.

Big East

LOCK – Marquette, Georgetown
BUBBLE – DePaul, Saint John’s (NY)
BUBBLE (DANGER) – Butler, Villanova

Can a team from a mid-major league like the Big East get a #1 seed? It looks possible, as both are flying in the RPI right now and have comparable profiles, especially if Penn State is in that zone as well. Regardless, both have great shots at top two seeds. DePaul’s draw at Georgetown should make them bulletproof if they’re on the bubble, which is a big if right now. Saint John’s (NY) has an empty profile and needs to get a result against either of the Top Two in the Big East Tournament. Butler’s an interesting case in that they’d be in if they got on the bubble thanks to a win over Michigan. Getting on the bubble looks tough though, and they might need a result at Marquette and maybe some conference tournament wins to stand a chance. Villanova’s all but cooked at this point unless they win their last few regular season games and make a deep Big East Tournament run.

Big South

BUBBLE (DANGER) – Radford

Radford is the class of the field in the Big South, and a league title looks inevitable. If they can navigate the gauntlet of the Big South Tournament, they could be a tricky foe for someone as long as they don’t get thrown to the wolves against a big name ACC team.

Big Ten

LOCK – Penn State, Michigan, Nebraska
BUBBLE – Minnesota, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio State, Illinois
BUBBLE (DANGER) – Iowa, Michigan State

It’s complicated. Penn State’s profile for a team in #1 seed range is incredibly weak. They’d help their case by beating Nebraska and running the table down the stretch, but it’s easy to envision them sliding out of high national seed range if they drop a game late. Michigan doesn’t have much upside left in the regular season and may need to gun for a Big Ten Tournament title to get a #1 seed. Nebraska has a chance for the league title, but the result against Penn State will be key for national seed hopes. The rest of the league is all over the map. Minnesota has been having an awful league season, but their two wins just happen to be over Penn State and Michigan. They could save themselves a lot of trouble by winning a few down the stretch. Wisconsin’s in limbo right now, good enough to feel safe about their NCAA Tournament chances but not about chances of a seed. Indiana’s a polarizing team. They have one (one!) result against a RPI Top 50 team, and that’s the aforementioned Minnesota team, meaning they could be sweating down the stretch. Ohio State and Illinois are both up against it right now, though Illinois’ in better shape thanks to a win over Louisville. Iowa and Michigan State are both technically alive but really into Hail Mary territory as far as their at-large hopes are concerned. Depending on the postseason, I could see the Big Ten getting seven or eight teams in…or perhaps just five, it’s very fluid at the moment.

Big West

BUBBLE (DANGER) – Long Beach State

LBSU survived to live another day on the bubble thanks to its win over UC Irvine, but the draw against Hawaii almost pushed them over the edge. The Beach are dangerous opponents, but the only way they’ll get to show their wares in the Big Dance is if they win the conference tournament.

Colonial

BUBBLE – William & Mary, James Madison
BUBBLE (DANGER) – Delaware

Oh, dear. William & Mary really could’ve done without the (blowout) loss to UNC Wilmington, one of the league’s worst teams, which sucked the life out of the Tribe’s RPI. The Tribe are just above the bubble zone right now, but they’ve used their one mulligan for the season and really need to win and keep winning, because the draw against Rutgers and win over James Madison probably isn’t going to cut it with the selection committee. James Madison, to their credit, isn’t slipping up and could work themselves above the bubble with more wins. I’m heavily skeptical about the league getting multiple bids though. Delaware is hanging onto the tail end of the bubble with a few wins in the past few weeks, but I’m guessing the RPI drain of College of Charleston will drop them from this list next time.

Conference USA

BUBBLE – Colorado College

Speaking of teams and less than desirable results, Colorado College didn’t exactly cover itself in glory with their away draw to UTSA last Sunday. The Tigers have a pretty sizable margin of error, but a lot of it was eaten up by that one result. CC’s profile isn’t close to being able to avoid scrutiny though, meaning they’d best win out in the regular season if they want to go into the C-USA Tournament with some comfort in knowing a loss wouldn’t kill their NCAA Tournament dreams.

Ivy

BUBBLE – Penn
BUBBLE (DANGER) – Brown

Hello, Penn. Let’s be real, the Quakers don’t stand a chance in hell of making it in as an at-large bid, but what if they end up on the bubble? That’s one less position for a team like Clemson perhaps, and that could make a pretty big difference in who makes it and who doesn’t. Then again, Penn’s also still a contender for the league’s auto bid. It’s hard to argue the same for the other Ivy team on this watch, as Brown’s title hopes probably ended with the Harvard defeat.

MAAC

BUBBLE – Monmouth

Monmouth are a cool hundred and three places above the second placed MAAC team in the RPI and almost two hundred (!) above the third placed team in the RPI. They haven’t really tested themselves in non-conference play, but there might also be a bit of an air of mystery about them if they make it into the NCAA Tournament. Just keep them away from Virginia, K?

Pac-12

LOCK – UCLA, Stanford, Cal
BUBBLE – Colorado, Washington State, Arizona State, Washington, Utah

UCLA almost looks like a lock for a #1 seed at this point. Stanford are still in the running for a top two seed, though their margin for error is very small. Cal’s chances for such a seed have eroded after zero wins in three. They have an uphill road to a national seed, but they still have a chance if they respond strongly down the stretch. Colorado’s profile isn’t that great, but they still have enough to have an at-large bid in all likelihood barring a total collapse. It gets dicey from there. Washington State doesn’t have much of a profile other than the Colorado win, and they would probably like to knock out one of Cal or Stanford to breathe a little easier. Arizona State have dropped like a rock and have little beyond the Stanford win on their profile. Might three of five in their run-in do it? Anything less could be trouble. Washington’s draw at UCLA means they get a lot of the benefit of the doubt, but the run-in is far from easy, with the Huskies also just a game over .500 right now. Utah’s got some decent results, but they’re walking a tightrope right now. Given their remaining schedule, they might need three wins to feel safe on Selection Monday.

Patriot

BUBBLE (DANGER) – Navy, Boston University

Navy really didn’t have a shot at an at-large bid thanks to their lack of major results, but some of the bubble clubs hoping they’d end up on that zone to give the committee another easily eliminated team will probably be disappointed to see the Midshipmen lose to Penn in midweek. Boston University had a decent chance thanks to a draw with South Carolina earlier in the season, but draws with Harvard and Dartmouth show the Terriers losing steam. There’s probably not enough time to make up the necessary space given the lack of quality opponents left on the schedule. Perhaps if they get to the Patriot League Tournament finale, but it’s still looking like a longshot for them.

SEC

LOCK – South Carolina, Florida
BUBBLE – Kentucky, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Georgia
BUBBLE (DANGER) – LSU

South Carolina and Florida are both solidly in the field, but both need strong finishes to move into a national seed. Carolina’s probably in a better position with Duke and Florida as notches on their belt. Kentucky’s got a shot if they can win out, including a victory over South Carolina but might not be high enough in the rankings if they can’t rack up wins. Ole Miss got a massive boost with the draw against South Carolina, but they still probably don’t want to lose to Alabama or Mississippi State to stay above the bubble. Arkansas and Tennessee have spent much of the league season falling on their face, but they still both probably have enough to survive scrutiny if they land on the bubble. Texas A&M’s probably not going to have too many problems with the bubble given their recent form. Can they make a late run to a national seed? Georgia’s won just one of six and now probably needs at least two wins between now and Selection Monday. LSU’s just about done. They probably need to win out. At least. That still probably isn’t going to solve their quality win problem though, meaning it’ll be up to the Tigers to string together a long run in Orange Beach if they’re to avoid heartbreak.

Southland

BUBBLE – Stephen F. Austin
BUBBLE (DANGER) – Oral Roberts

I will say this. Stephen F. Austin is making it interesting. They’ve got a win over LSU, and if they beat Texas, that’s two wins over teams that could potentially finish in the RPI Top 50. That’s a big if though, and I still don’t think the Ladyjacks are going to end up above the bubble zone if they don’t win the auto bid. That’s bad news, as there’s just not enough there to think the club will survive scrutiny. Oral Roberts is still hanging onto the edge of the bubble. I’m not sure how given their win profile, but they’ve still got zero chance of an at-large bid.

Summit

LOCK – Denver

Unless Denver’s beamed up by aliens between now and the end of the regular season, they’re going to be comfortably in the field of sixty-four. Can they get a seed? That’s a good question. Teams from conferences as poor as the Summit League usually don’t get consideration, but has a team from a minor conference ever been ranked as highly as Denver? The Pioneers’ profile is a bit short right now, but if they keep winning and results elsewhere go their way, who knows?

WCC

LOCK – Santa Clara, Portland
BUBBLE – BYU, Pepperdine

Santa Clara and Portland are in a fight for a top two seed. The former has the better RPI ranking, but the latter has the better profile of results. I’d say the winner of their regular season meeting has a fair chance of getting that top two seed. The loser? Not so much, and that might mean a prohibitively difficult match in the second weekend. BYU’s position has stabilized, and they’re probably in a good position for an at-large bid, though a national seed looks beyond them. Pepperdine’s right on the edge, and Texas A&M’s upward surge has to be helping their chances immeasurably. Really though, they almost need to run the table, such is the putridness of the bottom half of the league this season. A result against Santa Clara would help their chances in a big way.

WAC

BUBBLE (DANGER) – Seattle

The Redhawks are basically beating the rest of the WAC like a drum, for what that’s worth. Considering the rest of the league is all under 200 in the RPI, that’s not saying much. Seattle’s shown they can contend against better opposition as draws against Butler and Purdue can attest to. If they can’t hold their nerve and win the WAC Tournament though, they aren’t going to get a chance to show their wares on a bigger stage.

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