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Saturday, 4:00 PM – (4) Santa Clara vs Cal

The meetings between these two at this time of year almost seem inevitable. Their last meeting in the NCAA Tournament, in 2011, ended with the fancied Broncos bowing out on penalties, endemic of their postseason failings for the past decade. More of the same this year would probably do permanent damage to head coach Jerry Smith’s reputation, which has begun to outstrip his team’s accomplishments on the pitch over the past decade. The Broncos have just one appearance in the Sweet Sixteen since 2006. That has to be the minimum target this season given SCU’s seeded status, which you could argue was generous. The Broncos are just 1-4-1 against teams that finished in the uRPI Top 50, and it’s hard to push the memory of SCU being thrashed by North Carolina and Virginia on the opening weekend of the season from memory. The defensive problems exposed on that opening weekend have lingered against clubs with appreciable firepower, including down the stretch, where SCU’s conceded eight goals in the past three games. Granted, they crushed teams with their offense in two of those games, but they haven’t kept a clean sheet against an uRPI Top 50 team and have scored just six in those six games while conceding fourteen in the same span. The backline has been pretty pedestrian, with Ellie Rice the only real standout. Sophomore goalkeeper Andi Tostanoski has looked a liability in goal this year after a solid rookie season and is a big worry going into the Big Dance. And yet, Santa Clara remains a very real threat to do serious damage in the NCAA Tournament thanks to their trio of attackers up top. Julie Johnson, Morgan Marlborough, and Sofia Huerta have combined for thirty-nine goals and have battered opposing defenses in recent weeks. With a greater understanding, the trio has the potential to fire the Broncos in the direction of Cary. But while I think SCU has enough firepower to get themselves beyond a pesky Cal side and whoever wins the Battle of Boston in the second round, I think Virginia Tech is a bad matchup for the Broncos. The pace of Jazmine Reeves and overall combative nature of the Hokies combined with playing on the road likely spells doom for a SCU side that has struggled when they aren’t able to play the role of bully.

Cal may fancy their chances at springing an upset after drawing with Santa Clara, but they may consider themselves a bit lucky to get into this position after barely pulling out of a tailspin late in the season. Six games without a win in the Pac-12 had Cal close to falling out of the NCAA Tournament picture, but 1-0 wins on the road over Washington and Stanford saw the Golden Bears safely into the Big Dance once again. Much of the focus in this one is going to be on if Cal can again stifle the co-WCC champs’ tenacious offense. Cal couldn’t quite match the defensive pace of Pac-12 champs UCLA, but they still weren’t bad overall, conceding under a goal a game in the league and just seventeen overall on the season. Center-back Emi Lawson has turned into a premier defender and will need to display her skill and veteran leadership to help shut down Santa Clara’s dangerous frontline. Getting goalkeeper Emily Kruger back late in the season from a concussion should also help the cause for the Golden Bears. Kruger made eleven saves in the regular season meeting, a game in which Cal just barely hung on defensively, though they did hold their own going forward. If the defense can’t hold SCU’s attack at bay, Cal is likely in a world of trouble, as their offense has hardly been explosive as of late. An encouraging start has given way to an anemic finish, with the Golden Bears having not scored multiple goals in the past eight games. Ifeoma Onumonu has been the top option having netted eight goals but hasn’t quite progressed since her sterling rookie year. The likes of Kaitlyn Fitzpatrick, Rachel Mercik, and key reserve Samantha Witteman also can provide an offensive presence, but Cal isn’t going to be outgunning many teams in this competition. That includes Santa Clara, who might have a hiccup or two in this one but who should ultimately send Cal home.

Prediction – Santa Clara 2 – 1 Cal

Cal Tournament Prediction – First Round
Santa Clara Tournament Prediction – Sweet Sixteen

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