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Making definitive conclusions on the Big Ten’s non-conference slate isn’t easy considering that though the league is (almost) done with non-league play, their opponents may still have two or three weeks of non-league games themselves left. It means there’s a whole lot of volatility left in where each club’s non-conference RPI is going to end up at regular season’s end. As it stands though, it’s looking like a “big two” of Penn State and Wisconsin and twelve other teams who probably aren’t going to embarrass the brand.

Despite the league having the second best non-conference winning percentage at this point, I’m worried the league is more very good across the board than great in the top half. You might get eleven or twelve teams in the final RPI Top 100 but perhaps only five or six NCAA Tournament bids if some of the league’s clubs can’t grab results against PSU or the Badgers.

Penn State

(Note: Penn State still has a non-conference game on 09/23 against Bucknell.)

Current RPI – 3
Best Result – 4-3 win at Duke
Worst Result – By default, the 1-0 loss to North Carolina
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 100%

Penn State looks like a top eight team and plays like a top eight team, but do the Nittany Lions have the chops for a top national seed when all is said and done? They certainly aren’t going to be harmed by the loss to North Carolina, but do you really think West Virginia or Duke’s a top ten team? If they mow down the Big Ten, like they’re capable of, they may well get that #1 seed. If they get clipped a few times though, they might slide down to the #2 line…or further depending on who those dropped points go to.

Wisconsin

Current RPI – 5
Best Result – Probably the 3-0 demolition of Portland on a Sunday afternoon.
Worst Result – Well, they’ve won all their matches, so none.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 100%

It’s hard to argue that the Badgers haven’t done enough to already wrap up a spot in the NCAA Tournament field given how downright mediocre a lot of other teams’ profiles look at this point. But in terms of chasing a high national seed, is the Badgers profile great or merely very good-ish? It’s a stretch to say that any of Tennessee, Washington, or Portland are going to be pushing for a spot in the top twenty this season, so UW may need to win a lot of games in the league to get one of those top two seeds come November.

Michigan State

Current RPI – 23
Best Result – The 3-1 win over San Diego State on the road
Worst Result – Nada, they’re perfect so far.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 60%

Given the club’s non-conference slate, Michigan State almost had to run the table to avoid giving themselves an impossible hill to climb in league play. Mission Accomplished, with a 6-0-0 mark sealed by a win against Western Michigan last Sunday. But don’t breathe too easily Spartan fans. Oakland, IPFW, and Cal State Fullerton have a 1-13-2 record, and the rest of MSU’s non-conference victim list isn’t exactly filled with top clubs. The Spartans will be rooting for San Diego State the rest of the way, but they almost assuredly have to finish in the top half of the league to stand a chance…and they still might need more than that.

Northwestern

Current RPI – 37
Best Result – The 1-0 win on the road against Marquette.
Worst Result – Given that, how did this club lose at the hands of Fairleigh Dickinson?
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 10%

Call me crazy, but I think there’s a sliver of hope for the long suffering Wildcats. Of course, that depends on Marquette being Marquette and not the potential mid-table Big East side they’ve looked like thus far. But if they do turn it around, the results against Miami (OH) and Missouri aren’t going to hurt. The Fairleigh Dickinson loss probably isn’t great, but that single loss isn’t going to be the be all, end all for the Wildcats. They still have to prove it in Big Ten play, which is going to be pretty damn hard, but the club’s recovered well after the opening night debacle.

Rutgers

Current RPI – 48
Best Result – The win over Vanderbilt? Yeah, that’s not great.
Worst Result – All wins thus far, but they haven’t exactly pushed themselves.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 40%

Is playing just four non-conference games going to cost Rutgers? In this case it might be a case of a lack of quality just as much as quantity. None of the four vanquished foes seem likely to get a sniff of an at-large bid, and the lack of quality wins may matter more than a lack of crippling losses when all is said and done. They need a good many league wins, but on paper, this squad has a decent shot of getting it done. Taking down one of the league’s top two contenders would be a big boost.

Purdue

Current RPI – 55
Best Result – Marshall’s decent, right? If so, the win over them counts.
Worst Result – Drawing with Youngstown State, they of the below 300 RPI finish last season was highly embarrassing.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 5%

Realistically, Purdue needed to sweep a pretty laughable non-conference slate to get at-large bid consideration down the line. They didn’t get there, and while the loss to Miami (OH) probably isn’t a backbreaker, the draw to Youngstown State could be. More or less, the selection committee doesn’t look kindly on clubs without quality results come judgment day. That means the Boilermakers are going to have to win and win often in the league. On paper, this side doesn’t look capable of that amount of success.

Illinois

Current RPI – 56
Best Result – The 3-1 win over Arizona State could be a ticket to the Big Dance.
Worst Result – Just one non-win, the loss to Notre Dame, which probably won’t look too bad.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 70%

As it’s become pretty apparent that Arizona State’s a pretty good team, Illinois’ chances of making it to the NCAA Tournament have risen substantially. They clearly needed that ASU win to matter, because the back half of the non-conference slate is pretty woeful from an RPI perspective. There’s still work to be done, but as long as the Illini finish in the upper half of the Big Ten this season, they should have a reasonable chance of going dancing once more.

Maryland

Current RPI – 62
Best Result – The win over William & Mary might be more important for the bubble than the Terps would like to hope.
Worst Result – The draw against Navy could push the Terps off the cliff if they’re a borderline case.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 50%

The good news is that the defeats to UCLA and Pepperdine aren’t going to hurt Maryland at all in the end, besides the Terps not having a big scalp on their record. And therein lies the problem right now. The win over William and Mary probably isn’t going to matter much unless the club is alongside the Tribe on the bubble, which doesn’t seem too likely. NC State isn’t going to give much of a bump either, while the draw to Navy won’t help. They need a lot of wins in the league. It’s probably a coin flip whether this group can get enough to go dancing again after missing out last season.

Nebraska

Current RPI – 73
Best Result – Like a few others, Nebraska will be hoping that Marquette win gets better with time.
Worst Result – The casual reaction to losses against DePaul and Oklahoma won’t be favorable, but both actually look to be tournament teams this season.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 60%

The Huskers have some decent wins over clubs like SMU and Butler that will probably look OK at season’s end, but will they mean much at the end of the year for the club’s tournament hopes? They don’t really have many bad losses at this point, but there’s still a lot of work to do to secure their second straight NCAA Tournament appearance. There’s enough talent on paper to get some wins to complement the Marquette win earlier in the year, but it’s not a slam dunk by any measure.

Ohio State

Current RPI – 106
Best Result – Beating Duke could be the saving grace for the Buckeyes this season.
Worst Result – That loss to Toledo. Oy.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 65%

Being at .500 isn’t the best of omens going into league play, though you suspect OSU has enough to be over the cut line in that regard with their talent on hand. They better be hoping that Toledo soars rather than sinks in MAC play though, as that loss could be an anchor around them if they’re on the bubble. The Duke victory should be worth a lot though if the Blue Devils perform as expected in the ACC, while the win over Dayton should also help their cause. As long as they don’t totally flop in the Big Ten, they should have a pretty good chance in November.

Indiana

Current RPI – 119
Best Result – The win over Dayton right now, maybe the win over UC Irvine later.
Worst Result – The loss to Georgia Southern could be seriously costly.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 35%

While it looks like the Hoosiers have pulled it together after three straight wins lately, the back-to-back losses to Eastern Michigan and Georgia Southern could prove fatal down the line. The loss to EMU might be easier to swallow, as the Eagles look a decent side, but Amy Berbary’s crew will be hoping the latter fly high in the Sun Belt. Dayton and UC Irvine are usually decent wins to have on the resume, but they aren’t going to push the Hoosiers over the top. It means Indiana is going to have to knuckle down and put in a good showing in the league. Given their non-conference form though, will Indiana be consistent enough to get the results they need?

Minnesota

Current RPI – 122
Best Result – Again, another Big Ten side with a win over Marquette they hope pays off.
Worst Result – They aren’t backbreakers, but Ole Miss and Auburn could be two rivals on the bubble that have beaten the Gophers.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 45%

The win over Marquette certainly seemed to help their cause, but last weekend may have done some serious damage to their chances. Getting out of last weekend with a split against Ole Miss and Auburn probably would have been just fine in the long-term, but losing both games leaves the club with a 3-3-0 record going into league play, and just that Marquette win to tout. It leaves the Gophers with serious work to do in the Big Ten, though they should be a side that can get it done on paper. The poor defense against bigger teams away from home does raise questions though.

Michigan

Current RPI – 126
Best Result – Nothing impressive, though the win over Toledo will probably look best at season’s end.
Worst Result – The 5-0 defeat to San Diego probably doesn’t bode well.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 10%

Subjectively, you’d figure the Wolverines are a dead team walking after that brutal weekend out in San Diego. If Michigan can’t beat a Mountain West team and a mid-table WCC side, what chance are they going to stand in the Big Ten? Those losses probably aren’t going to be killers on their own, but there’s really very little in the win column for the Wolverines at this point. They need a big season in the Big Ten to even stand a chance of an at-large bid. Given their non-conference results, it’s hard envisioning that happening.

Iowa

Current RPI – 141
Best Result – 5-20-1: the combined record of Iowa’s wins at this point. So, yeah, there’s not much to choose from. Maybe the win against Butler?
Worst Result – They have just one loss, but it’s a bad one, to an Iowa State team that may be a bubble rival if ISU has a breakthrough season.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 35%

It’s a yearly tradition that Iowa plays a bunch of patsies out of conference, and though Fresno State and Butler probably aren’t going to be terrible, that those two are probably going to be the club’s best non-conference wins speaks volumes about the club’s chances of making it to their second straight NCAA Tournament. They should have one of the league’s strongest squads on paper, but that doesn’t exactly explain how they lost to an Iowa State team expected to finish near the bottom of the Big XII. They need wins, and they probably need them over some of the league’s bigger clubs to make their case for an at-large bid.

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