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It has not been the best of years for the WCC. A league used to having a handful of contenders for at-large bids in the NCAA Tournament may get just one if things break the wrong way in league play. The only team that can be confident in their spot right now is Pepperdine, who’ll be chasing a #1 seed after an impressive non-conference campaign. But elsewhere, there’s trouble. BYU, San Diego, and Santa Clara all are near the cutline with questionable results and will need to have great league seasons to make the final field.

Meanwhile, Portland’s NCAA Tournament streak is likely to end this season, as the Pilots are a couple matches under .500 and out of the RPI Top 100 with a lot of ground to make up in the next six weeks. The rest of the league pretty much breaks down how’d you expect it, with Gonzaga and Pacific bringing up the rear. Again. Four bids is possible, but just a few looks more likely for the WCC in 2014, one of the worst years for the conference in recent memory.

Pepperdine

Current RPI – 8
Best Result – The win against North Carolina.
Worst Result – Probably the draw in Hawaii against Washington State.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 100%

I picked Pepperdine to win the WCC before the season, and they look like major favorites going into league play. In reality, it’s going to be a race to a #1 seed for the Waves the rest of the way. The problem for Pepperdine is that the club’s WCC brethren probably aren’t going to help it that much in terms of their RPI. There are also a handful of clubs that will want a win against the Waves on their record to boost their own NCAA hopes, meaning Tim Ward’s club will have to be on their guard if they want a high national seed.

BYU

Current RPI – 46
Best Result – I’d say the draw at home against Washington State.
Worst Result – The season opening draw against Cal State Fullerton could be real costly.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 75%

It’s going to be a close run thing. BYU has a collection of good results but nothing right now to put them over the top. And they aren’t high enough in the RPI yet to not need a very good league season to avoid the bubble zone. A result against Pepperdine in the regular season finale would solve a lot of problems. Otherwise, BYU better win almost all of their WCC matches.

San Diego

Current RPI – 58
Best Result – At the moment, the win against Oklahoma
Worst Result – The defeat to Cal State Northridge could be a backbreaker.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 60%

I think you could probably echo everything I said above with BYU with San Diego. They probably have the better win at this point, with the victory over Oklahoma and a better upside win and draw in the long run in Michigan and USC. But they’re also twelve spots back in the RPI. That means these Toreros may need to almost run the table to be confident of an at-large bid come November.

Santa Clara

Current RPI – 60
Best Result – The away win against Long Beach State.
Worst Result – There’s nothing egregious here, but technically the loss against Cal. Both of them.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 25%

Santa Clara’s problem is that they don’t have any meaningful results. The Broncos are pretty much in their RPI position right now, because they don’t have any bad losses or anything approaching bad losses on their record. At the same time though, while that may keep SCU in the bubble conversation, it’s not going to keep them there when they face scrutiny. Realistically, they need a result against Pepperdine and a great league season to stand a chance.

Loyola Marymount

Current RPI – 99
Best Result – The away win against UC Irvine.
Worst Result – The painful away draw with Oregon State.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 0%

LMU’s season has already been a solid success after last season’s 3-16-1 debacle. They’ve already doubled their win total from last year and look to be on course to a RPI Top 100 finish. But they don’t have a single decent result against an RPI Top 100 team, which pretty much reduces their at-large hopes to nil. A mid-table finish in the league would be a success.

Portland

Current RPI – 105
Best Result – The draw at Seattle.
Worst Result – The draw at Oregon State before that spoke volumes.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 5%

I’m giving the Pilots the tiniest of chances at an at-large bid, mostly off of name brand value, but realistically, they’ve got a very small chance of making it in. Teams out of the RPI Top 100 usually don’t stand a chance of making it back onto the bubble come season’s end. And with the WCC being so mediocre in the RPI this season, the odds of a big rise aren’t great. Portland doesn’t have any great results to put it over the top either, so the NCAA Tournament doesn’t look likely.

Saint Mary’s (CA)

Current RPI – 129
Best Result – The early season win against Saint Joseph’s at home.
Worst Result – The loss to RPI #222 Nevada all but ended at-large hopes.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 0%

The Gaels look improved for the second straight season and have a decent shot at ten wins for the first time since 2011. But they also haven’t proven to be consistent, with a couple of losses to teams out of the RPI Top 100, and in Nevada’s case, out of the RPI Top 200. With nothing in terms of good wins, SMC isn’t going to be able to make a strong case for an at-large bid either, so mid-table in the WCC is about the best they can hope for.

San Francisco

Current RPI – 171
Best Result – The win at Boston University was a strong sign of progress…
Worst Result – …but a draw with San Jose State shows there’s still a ways to go.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 0%

It’s not exactly a stretch to say USF has been a disappointment this season. Expected to make a solid leap into the RPI Top 100 before the season, the Dons have instead languished about where they’ve been the past few years. Obviously, there’s still a league season to go, but the club is hardly going into WCC play in form, having not won in their last four matches.

Gonzaga

Current RPI – 212
Best Result – The win at North Texas showed what the club was capable of when on form.
Worst Result – They followed that up with an underwhelming loss at SMU.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 0%

More of the same from the Bulldogs really. Their last RPI Top 100 finish was in 2007, and barring a miracle, they aren’t going to break that streak this season. Frustratingly, wins like the one over North Texas showed what the club can do and was some much needed validation after some softballs early in the league season. Those softballs may have helped with the W-L-T record, but it also has dragged their RPI down.

Pacific

Current RPI – 275
Best Result – Oy vey. The combined record of the two teams Pacific beat is 2-16-1. So the draw with UC Davis?
Worst Result – The 4-0 beating they suffered at the hands of RPI #233 San Jose State.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 0%

Make no mistake, Pacific still looks light years behind their WCC rivals, even with another year to acclimate to their new league after moving from the Big West. It’s not just the losses but the margin of defeat. Losing to SJSU by four goal and UC Santa Barbara by five? Bad. And things may not get better in the WCC either. The Tigers beat expectations in league play last year though, so maybe they’ll be late bloomers this year.

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