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NCAA – What Chris Is Watching – 10/19/14 – (14) Kansas vs (9) West Virginia

posted by All White Kit
Sunday, October 19, 2014 at 7:10pm EDT

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(14) Kansas vs (9) West Virginia – 2:00 PM

With all due respect to current leaders Oklahoma State, the Big XII title will likely be decided on Sunday afternoon in Lawrence when Kansas hosts West Virginia. The Jayhawks’ margin of error diminished noticeably following their first league defeat on Friday, a 1-0 loss to Texas Tech. The Jayhawks had previously racked up four straight wins to put themselves in the driver’s seat for a shock league title. Against the Red Raiders though, KU fell prey to a late defensive mix-up at the end of the first half that would eventually prove decisive. While the defense limited Janine Beckie to just one shot on goal and TTU to three overall, they couldn’t tally more than three shots on goal themselves, marking the first time the club’s been shutout since their only other loss, to Marquette. KU’s defense still hasn’t conceded multiple goals yet this season though, something that will probably serve them well against West Virginia’s dangerous attack. However, if the Jayhawks can rebound and top the Mountaineers on Sunday, they’ll be back in control of the title race with two winnable matches left. A win over WVU would also keep them in seed contention with a few weeks left in the regular season.

Having now won three in a row and gone unbeaten in eleven, West Virginia will face likely back-to-back Big XII title deciders in the next week against the Jayhawks on Sunday and then Oklahoma State next Friday. The Mountaineers’ title credentials may have come into a little bit of doubt after a 0-0 draw with TCU to open up their league season, but WVU has seldom put a foot wrong since, winning all three of their following league games by multiple goals. Iowa State was the latest club to be fed into the woodchipper on Friday, as WVU put up twenty-three shots, including nine on frame, while limiting ISU to just one on-target shot on the evening. The club may have gone into the break tied at 0-0, but they scored through Kate Schwindel shortly after the restart and didn’t look back before adding two more late. Sunday should provide a fascinating test for an attack that has scored multiple goals in six of its last seven, including four goals four times in that span. Shutouts against Duke and TCU show WVU’s mortal, but they also have seldom fired blanks this season. A win over the Jayhawks would also boost WVU’s case for an all-important high national seed, though the club might need to do more damage in the Big XII Tournament given the resumes of their rivals on that front.

(35) Kentucky vs (5) Florida – 4:00 PM

Florida saw its dreams of a unshared league title take a major hit on Thursday when they suffered a shock defeat at the hands of South Carolina in Columbia. The three goals the Gators gave up was the most for Florida since their pounding at the hands of Florida State at the beginning of 2013. With adjustments needed with Lauren Silver with Jamaica at CONCACAF WWC Qualifying, Florida stuck with the 4-2-3-1 at the beginning of the match, going down 2-0 before switching to the 3-5-2 which sacrificed a lot of defensive heft in favor of more attacking strength. Havana Solaun took the Gators upon her shoulders in that second half, scoring both goals to drag the club back from a 2-0 deficit, including an absolute stunner for the equalizer. It was a huge boost for Florida considering Savannah Jordan endured a trying match leading the line for the Gators, a worrying sign considering how reliant the club is on their sophomore for goals. It was set piece defense that let them down in the end though, as SC scored on a late header from a corner to leave Florida leaving Columbia with nothing. The path gets no easier for Florida, as they head to play a Kentucky team that have won their last four matches at home. UF will no doubt remember their last trip to Lexington, a 2-1 defeat in 2012. A repeat of that here would be a potentially fatal blow to their SEC title hopes.

Kentucky will see Florida as a potential ticket into the NCAA Tournament after spending most of the season on the wrong side of the bubble. A win over South Carolina last week likely will be enough to push UK over the line in the end, but a result against Florida would erase doubt and give the club a sliver of a chance at a national seed if they finish on fire. On fire is what Kentucky’s been in Lexington for much of 2014. The Wildcats have been mostly feeble on the road but have been near perfect at home, save the 3-2 loss to Pepperdine in extra time. UK are also battling for a top-six spot in the SEC table and an opening round bye in November’s SEC Tournament. In that regard, Kentucky’s fate is in its own hands, though with this match against UF and a road trip to Georgia next week, the path isn’t exactly an easy one. The defense seems to finally be stabilizing a bit though after giving up ten goals in six games a little while back. Bringing back Arin Gilliland to left-back has to be a big boost to the defense, though theoretically at a cost to the offense. At the same time though, UK hasn’t been shutout all season and put three past Ole Miss on Friday. Kentucky will be confident after Friday’s win, but they’ll have to be wary of the backlash from a Florida side stinging from their loss to South Carolina.

(44) TCU vs (13) Texas Tech – 2:00 PM

They probably won’t be lifting the Big XII title in a week’s time, but Texas Tech can at least breathe a little easier in the knowledge that they finally picked up their first league win on Friday at previous league leaders Kansas. It wasn’t a thing of beauty, and the offense stuttered more than Tom Stone probably would’ve liked, but the largely anonymous freshman Alex Marmureanu picked a great time for her first career goal, pouncing on a Kansas defensive mistake to seal three priceless points. On paper, the most difficult part of TTU’s Big XII season is over, with TCU, Baylor, and Iowa State to finish things off before the Big XII Tournament. Three-from-three is certainly an attainable goal, especially with both games in Lubbock next weekend. With wins over Notre Dame, Cal, and Kansas, the Red Raiders should be in the mix for a national seed if they can avoid banana peels down the stretch. With the defense finally owing around with the first clean sheet in almost a month on Friday, the Red Raiders will be hoping that their late season swoon has truly been put to bed. They’ll be wary of a TCU side riding in confident themselves, having taken down Texas on Friday, however.

That was a big win for the Horned Frogs, who themselves were winless in league play going into Friday, though they also had drawn with West Virginia in Fort Worth. The stat sheet probably didn’t make for great reading at first, with Texas enjoying a giant 27-11 shot advantage on the evening. But the gap in shots on goal was much less pronounced, and TCU was lethal with their finishing, netting from three of their five on-target shots. Whatever Eric Bell said at half-time also seemed to work a treat, as TCU extended their lead from one to three goals in less than nine minutes after the break. Bell was probably relived to see his side deliver some goals after a distinct lack of explosiveness in league play to that point, with TCU having not scored multiple goals in six matches before Friday. Michelle Prokof had another fine night, with assists on the second and third goals for the Horned Frogs against Texas. One suspects that TCU will be hoping for some better defense though, as the club has conceded in five straight and really needs to cut that shot total down from Friday’s gaudy display on the stat sheet. But pulling off another upset at home would all but ensure the club will be in the NCAA Tournament, marking yet another strong sign of progress in Fort Worth.

Other Matches To Watch

(51) Michigan State vs (7) Penn State – 1:00 PM
(45) UConn vs (16) UCF – 12:00 PM
(59) Duke vs (4) North Carolina – 3:30 PM
(11) South Carolina vs (55) Ole Miss – 1:00 PM
(31) Arkansas vs (38) Auburn – 2:00 PM
(20) Washington State vs (53) Oregon – 4:00 PM

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