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AAC

Bubble – UCF, UConn, Memphis, South Florida
Bubble (Danger) – Tulsa

This league’s a mess right now, and UConn’s probably going to be on the wrong end of a double-edged sword. The Huskies got their big result by beating UCF this past weekend…but that also dropped UCF’s RPI to the extent that UConn’s profile still doesn’t look great in comparison to its rivals. UCF should be fine if they don’t cough up any of the games at home this weekend. If they fall onto the bubble? Trouble. The Knights don’t have any results against anyone higher than RPI #40 Memphis. Those Tigers are going to have to win a few matches in the AAC Tournament, as they still haven’t taken the expected RPI hit from the league’s gruesome Texas twosome yet. South Florida’s profile isn’t awful, but it’s not great either, so the Bulls are probably going to need to keep winning into November, despite two weekend wins. Having won just one of six league games, it’s safe to say Tulsa’s run out of steam far too soon.

Atlantic 10

Lock – La Salle
Bubble – Rhode Island
Bubble (Danger) – George Washington

Precedent says La Salle is now safe at RPI #21…but are they? They’ve got no positive results against RPI Top 50 teams, but if they were excluded from an at-large spot, they’d be the highest ranked team to ever be denied a bid since we started keeping these numbers. Advice? Keep winning. Rhode Island’s hanging onto the bubble doggedly but doesn’t have a chance, along with George Washington, who’ve still done well to win their last three in the league.

ACC

Lock – North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame
Bubble – Clemson, Boston College
Bubble (Danger) – Duke, Wake Forest

North Carolina and Florida State are both battling for a #1 seed, and the latter arguably needs a win more in their meeting this week given the clubs’ win profiles. Virginia just doesn’t have the results right now to merit a top two seed, though that could change down the stretch. Virginia Tech seems to be fading after their ferocious start, while Notre Dame looks like a very good team being victimized by the RPI at the moment. Clemson’s not listed as a lock, but they’ll be there next week in all likelihood. Boston College probably won’t want to tempt fate on the bubble, but it might just be a matter of running out the clock and not dropping too far. Duke looks unlikely to finish at .500 given their finishing kick, while Wake Forest is alive, technically, for another week.

Atlantic Sun

Bubble – Florida Gulf Coast

Florida Gulf Coast is in the zone right now where they’ll at least merit bubble consideration if they don’t win the league’s auto bid. If they don’t slip up against Stetson in their regular season finale, they’ll, at worst, absorb just one more loss. The profile isn’t bad, but it’s also not great compared to some of the club’s likely rivals on the bubble, making them a dicey proposition. More interesting is if they’ll be able to avoid Florida and Florida State if they do make the field. In a sane world, they should, but you never know.

Big XII

Lock – West Virginia, Texas Tech, Kansas
Bubble – Oklahoma State, Texas, Oklahoma, TCU
Bubble (Danger) – Baylor

Seven bids is a distinct possibility, which was probably as likely as hell freezing over at the beginning of the season. West Virginia and Texas Tech are going to be fighting for a top two seed. The Mountaineers probably have the upper hand seeing as how they vanquished both TTU and Kansas and might just get there if they win the Big XII Tournament as well. A draw with Texas Tech was huge for Oklahoma State, but maybe not as big as the three wins that followed to ease fears of finishing below .500. A result against West Virginia should wrap things up. Texas isn’t getting the bump they though they would from early season non-conference results but are probably going to get the benefit of the doubt after beating TTU. The Horns are still just a game over .500 entering Monday night’s match against UALR though, so they aren’t in the clear yet. Oklahoma just has to stay on the bubble thanks to their win over Texas Tech (I sense a trend) and earlier win over Florida. They haven’t won in three though, and the finishing kick isn’t easy. TCU’s here on the back of one result, the draw against West Virginia. But barring a shock defeat at Iowa State in the regular seas finale, they have one loss at most left. They might just be able to ride that WVU result to the Big Dance. Baylor is still alive, but they’re a long, long way out from the bubble. They may need to win their remaining three regular season bids to get back to the bubble.

Big East

Bubble – DePaul, Georgetown
Bubble (Danger) – Providence

DePaul is unbeaten…but are they safe? The Blue Demons may take a big RPI hit against Xavier this week and have one result against an RPI Top 50 team this season, a draw against Georgetown. If they meet an early demise in the Big East Tournament and the bubble contracts, could they seriously miss out with just one loss in nineteen matches? It’d be cruel, but their profile is ugly. Georgetown’s further down in the RPI but has a road draw with West Virginia and DePaul, making them pretty safe. Applaud Providence for being as high as they are, but they won’t be Dancing unless they win the auto bid.

Big Ten

Lock – Penn State, Wisconsin, Rutgers
Bubble – Michigan, Michigan State, Maryland
Bubble (Danger) – Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois

Has this league become a trainwreck, or what? Penn State’s battling for a #1 seed, and Wisconsin and Rutgers are both contenders for a seed, but things erode rapidly after that. Michigan looks relatively safe thanks to their result against Wisconsin, but beyond them, it’s slim pickings. Michigan State is in the mix but just doesn’t have any notable results and is out of regular season opportunities. Maryland’s profile is bizarre, with six draws, which is more than games won and lost this season for the Terps. A win against Rutgers will help, but they are perilously close to the .500 cutline with away dates at Wisconsin and Penn State left. They may need to win a game in the Big Ten Tournament to get to .500. Minnesota looks better than their record but has nothing on their profile. Iowa has a draw at Wisconsin but needs wins to close the gap in the RPI. Illinois may be more concerned with just getting to the Big Ten Tournament with zero wins in their last five.

Colonial

Bubble – Hofstra, William & Mary
Bubble (Danger) – Northeastern

Hofstra and Northeastern don’t have a chance, but William & Mary. A chance. A slim chance, but a chance nonetheless. They’ve got a draw against La Salle in their favor, so they’d probably need the Explorers to run the table from now on, while also running the table and getting to the CAA Tournament final. And they’d still probably need a lot of breaks to go their way. But they aren’t totally dead in the water.

Conference USA

Bubble (Danger) – Rice

The draw at Arkansas isn’t going to mean enough, and a three match winless streak pretty much put the final nails in Rice’s at-large bid coffin. Beware of the Owls at tourney time though. They are no slouches when on their game. Which, frustratingly, isn’t proving to be often enough in the league.

Ivy

Bubble – Harvard

After the hiccup in league against Yale, Harvard’s won their next two league games to get into pole position for another title. They won’t get an at-large bid, but if they do make it, they’ll be a dangerous first round foe.

MAC

Bubble – Miami (OH)
Bubble (Danger) – Buffalo

Miami (OH) have beaten a Big Ten, Big East, and ACC school this season. Those teams are Purdue, Butler, and Louisville. D’oh. The Redhawks should still be more than cannon fodder if they make it though. Buffalo picked up two wins on the road against Central Michigan and Toledo this past weekend, which might be as big a symbol as any of a changing of the guard.

Missouri Valley

Bubble – Illinois State

The Redbirds are creeping towards the bubble but don’t have much of a case considering their best win is over Baylor, who are RPI #78. The defense has found it especially tough against to opposition as well, making any kind of Cinderella run this season spotty at best if they make it back to the Big Dance.

Mountain West

Bubble – San Diego State

Oh, San Diego State, what was that? The Aztecs were on the end of a 2-0 reverse to Boise State this past weekend, dealing them a serious blow after they had looked nigh-unstoppable in the league. Wins over Michigan and Washington should still see them safe. But only if they stick on the bubble. A loss or two more could well see them needing the auto bid from the Mountain West Tournament.

Pac-12

Lock – UCLA, Stanford, Washington, Washington State, Cal
Bubble – Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, USC, Oregon

UCLA and Stanford continue to be all but locked into #1 seeds. Washington and Washington State are both battling for a national seed, while Cal’s RPI is a little bit flattering at this point when compared to some of its league rivals. While they’re technically not listed in the lock category, it’s going to be really hard to justify excluding Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah given their big results on the season. So that’s eight, but getting beyond that may be tough. Colorado is paying the price for a garbagey non-conference slate and stuttering league form. They really need multiple wins to finish out league play to climb the bubble ladder. USC almost assuredly has to win their next two against the Oregon clubs and may need a result in one or more of their final three. The bad news is those games are against the Washington schools away and UCLA in the Coliseum. Oregon is 6-6-2, which is a big problem considering they haven’t played UCLA or Stanford yet. Barring a miraculous upset, the Ducks will have to beat two of USC, Cal, and Oregon State and not lose to any of that trio. If they’re at .500 though, they should be in.

Patriot

Bubble – Colgate, Boston University
Bubble (Danger) – Navy

Is Colgate’s matchup with Boston University on Wednesday the biggest match in Patriot League regular season history? Considering the stakes, it might be. A win by Colgate might push it into the lofty heights of RPI ranking where excluding them from an at-large bid would be unprecedented despite a lack of big results. A Boston University win would give it another big result and push them further up the RPI. I think if Colgate wins, there’s a reasonable chance both make it into the NCAA Tournament. Navy has a draw at South Florida and draw with Colgate, also on the road. They’re also well down the RPI pecking order though, and time is running out.

SEC

Lock – Texas A&M, Florida, South Carolina
Bubble – Missouri, Georgia, Kentucky, Auburn, Arkansas, Alabama, Ole Miss
Bubble (Danger) – Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Florida’s claim to a #1 seed slipped noticeably this past week with defeats to South Carolina and Kentucky. The Gators still have a ton of nice results, but they’re drifting down the rankings after the away horror show last week. Texas A&M should benefit in theory, but amongst the top #1 seed contenders, their resume is paper thin in comparison. South Carolina’s back in amongst the contenders for seeding, and a result against A&M might even make it a top two seed. Missouri, Georgia, and Kentucky have all scavenged results against the top three and look like locks in all but name only. Auburn and Arkansas are both in the mix but treading a thin line as the regular season ends. They should be fine if the bubble doesn’t get much stronger and if they don’t collapse though. Alabama’s the team to watch considering they have a draw against South Carolina. They probably need a few more wins to feel comfortable, but Bama is well positioned right now. Ole Miss is running out of time and opportunities after two losses on the road and may need three more wins to get back into the mix. Tennessee and Vanderbilt are both hanging onto this list for dear life but don’t look long for it given the shrinking time window.

Southland

Bubble (Danger) – Stephen F. Austin

The Ladyjacks aren’t exactly being challenged by their Southland brethren. But what’s new? SFA really had two chances to get big results against Texas A&M and Arkansas but came up short in each. It’s auto bid or bust again for the Ladyjacks, which works out fine some seasons but not in others (see 2013).

WCC

Lock – Pepperdine
Bubble – BYU, San Diego, Santa Clara

Pepperdine’s hopes of a top two national seed appear to be done for, which might mean a trip to UCLA in the Sweet Sixteen if the Waves make it that far. There’s more intrigue behind them with BYU and San Diego. I’ve been getting a lot of heat from Provo for picking San Diego in my latest bracket over the Cougars, but while BYU did beat USD head-to-head, the gap in quality results against RPI Top 50 teams is a big one. BYU has a draw with Washington State…and that’s it (other than the win over San Diego). The Toreros have wins over Michigan, San Diego State, Oklahoma, and Pepperdine. If BYU beats Pepperdine, I think that pretty much erases how meaningful that gap becomes, and I’d pick the Cougars of USD. In all likelihood though, the Cougars are going to win the WCC, taking home the auto bid and rendering all of the above moot.

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