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Big East

Weighted Total Shot Ratio (MAX 2.00)

1.36 – (1) DePaul
1.30 – (4) Marquette
1.28 – (2) Georgetown
1.16 – (DNQ) Butler
1.05 – (3) Saint John’s (NY)
1.04 – (5) Providence
0.87 – (DNQ) Creighton
0.72 – (6) Villanova
0.61 – (DNQ) Seton Hall
0.58 – (DNQ) Xavier

Schedule (WTSR difference in parentheses by home side/higher seed)

Big East Tournament Quarterfinals (11/04)

(3) Saint John’s (NY) (+0.33) vs (6) Villanova – 7:00 PM
(4) Marquette (+0.26) vs (5) Providence – 8:00 PM

Big East Tournament Semi-Finals (11/07)

(1) DePaul vs TBA
(2) Georgetown vs TBA

Big East Tournament Final (11/09)

TBA vs TBA

Quick Hits

WTSR says that DePaul should be slightly favored to do the double in the Big East, over traditional powers Marquette and Georgetown. Truthfully, I’m interested in what happens to DePaul’s hopes of a national seed if they win out and go into the NCAA Tournament undefeated. They’d have zero losses but would still be coming in with a starkly weak resume in terms of big results. If they don’t win the Big East Tournament, you suspect they still might host a home match in the first round but would miss out on a seed.

Saint John’s (NY) has been tipped heavily by some, because they’ve got home advantage in the final few rounds and/or some people still think it’s 2013. The Red Storm did luck out in getting a very good first round matchup against a #8 WTSR ranked Villanova side, but there’s not a long break between matches, meaning the difference between playing two and three matches is huge and may well counteract any home advantage the club may have. At least the club did manage to avoid DePaul until the final.

If anyone’s coming from the first round to win it, it might be Marquette. The Golden Eagles are #2 in WTSR but made things harder for themselves with a last day loss to Butler. The Golden Eagles’ defense did have problems shutting down Georgetown and DePaul in the regular season though, which undoubtedly raises some major questions going forward. They’ll be solid favorites to see off Providence in the opening round though before a crunch matchup with DePaul. If they can win that, they should be favorites to steal the auto bid.

Factor in fatigue, and Georgetown probably has the best shot at usurping DePaul for the auto bid. The Hoyas drew with the league champs in the regular season and will likely have the easier semi-final matchup. A Big East Tournament title would make a home game in the first round of the NCAA Tournament a possibility. The Hoyas may still want to avoid a semi-final loss to erase any bubble doubts going into Monday.

Butler is this season’s hard luck team in the Big East. #4 in WTSR but out of the field on tiebreakers. It’s been a strange and disappointing year in the Big East. DePaul and Georgetown are the only two teams with realistic at-large hopes, though this may be one of the better chances for a bubble thief to steal in and grab the league’s auto bid.

Mountain West

Weighted Total Shot Ratio (MAX 2.00)

1.37 – (1) San Diego State
1.28 – (3) New Mexico
1.23 – (5) Utah State
1.22 – (4) Colorado College
1.13 – (DNQ) San Jose State
1.12 – (DNQ) UNLV
1.00 – (6) Boise State
0.96 – (2) Wyoming
0.90 – (DNQ) Fresno State
0.66 – (DNQ) Air Force
0.63 – (DNQ) Colorado State
0.57 – (DNQ) Nevada

Schedule (WTSR difference in parentheses by home side/higher seed)

Mountain West Tournament Quarterfinals (11/04)

(3) New Mexico (+0.28) vs (6) Boise State – 7:00 PM
(4) Colorado College (-0.01) vs (5) Utah State – 10:00 PM

Mountain West Tournament Semi-Finals (11/06)

(1) San Diego State vs TBA
(2) Wyoming vs TBA

Mountain West Tournament Final (11/08)

TBA vs TBA

Quick Hits

As expected, San Diego State are comfortably favored to win the Mountain West Tournament, also benefitting from home advantage in the competition and playing just two matches at maximum. They aren’t bulletproof though, losing in the regular season to Boise State (not likely to be a problem here) and New Mexico (much more likely to be a problem). The Aztecs are right on the cutline for an at-large bid and probably want to at least make the final to stand a decent chance of one if they can’t grab the auto bid. They’re going to face a tough semi-final match, regardless of opponent, and New Mexico will be formidable if they reach the final.

That looks very realistic for the Lobos. They got a great quarterfinal draw against a Boise State side ranked #7 in WTSR, while a win there would put them up against #8 WTSR Wyoming. The Cowgirls look ripe to be upset in the semi-finals, having lost two of three and having already lost this season to the Lobos. Wyoming has losses to all of the top-five in the league save Colorado College, and even then, they needed extra time to win that one. Wyoming’s defense has hemorrhaged goals at times, a bad sign going into postseason play.

The Colorado College/Utah State quarterfinal winner has a nice outside shot at stealing the auto bid, especially if they can get San Diego State out of the way in the semi-finals. They’d still be underdogs if they faced New Mexico in the final, but both would likely be sizable favorites over Wyoming in the final, even factoring in fatigue.

San Jose State and UNLV should also be credited for solid WTSR seasons, despite missing out on the top six.

All in all, this looks like a very competitive tournament, one which many other eyes will be watching to see if San Diego State can hold their nerve. If they can’t, it’ll add to the bubble drama as Monday approaches.

Patriot

Weighted Total Shot Ratio (MAX 2.00)

1.56 – (2) Boston University
1.45 – (3) Navy
1.07 – (DNQ) Lehigh
1.05 – (5) Bucknell
1.03 – (1) Colgate
0.90 – (4) Army
0.84 – (DNQ) Holy Cross
0.83 – (6) Loyola (MD)
0.72 – (DNQ) American
0.69 – (DNQ) Lafayette

Schedule (WTSR difference in parentheses by home side/higher seed)

Patriot League Tournament Quarterfinals (11/04)

(3) Navy (+0.62) vs (6) Loyola (MD) – 7:00 PM
(4) Army (-0.15) vs (5) Bucknell – 7:00 PM

Patriot League Tournament Semi-Finals (11/07)

(1) Colgate vs TBA
(2) Boston University vs TBA

Patriot League Tournament Final (11/09)

TBA vs TBA

Quick Hits

Yeah, that table does not make for kind reading for league champs Colgate, who WTSR says is not likely to make it a double this week in the Patriot League Tournament. Making matters worse for the Raiders is the fact that they beat neither #2 seed Boston University or #3 seed Navy in the league this season, drawing with the former and being beaten decisively by the latter, though that came on the road. The good news is that Colgate should be favored to beat Army in the semi-finals solidly and maybe barely over Bucknell in the semi-finals thanks to home advantage. Unless Loyola (MD) pulls off a miracle though, the Raiders may find the final unhappy sledding. They really need the auto bid too, as it’s not likely they’ll get the benefit of the doubt for an at-large bid.

Boston University might though. WTSR says they shouldn’t have to though, as they’re solid favorites to win the auto bid. They’ll have a fatigue advantage against likely semi-final opponent Navy and look better on paper than Colgate while also having already beaten them in the league. Depending on how the bubble shakes out, they might be able to get an at-large bid if they lose in the final. The same can’t be said about Navy, though Carin Gabarra’s side do stand a good chance of winning the league’s auto bid. Loyola (MD) should be put to the sword pretty easily in the quarterfinal before the big semi-final.

Bucknell is favored for the upset in the quarterfinal against Army, though it’s basically a coin flip given the latter’s home advantage. The winner arguably gets the easier semi-final as well, meaning they’re a decent longshot pick. Still, WTSR says this tournament is likely getting decided in the semi-finals on Friday.

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