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Big XII

Weighted Total Shot Ratio (MAX 2.00)

1.46 – (1) West Virginia
1.26 – (4) Texas Tech
1.07 – (5) Texas
1.01 – (3) Kansas
1.01 – (2) Oklahoma State
0.99 – (7) Baylor
0.90 – (6) Oklahoma
0.70 – (8) TCU
0.63 – (DNQ) Iowa State

Schedule (WTSR difference in parentheses by home side/higher seed)

Big XII Tournament Quarterfinals (11/05)

(1) West Virginia (+0.76) 2 – 1 (8) TCU
(2) Oklahoma State (+0.02) vs (7) Baylor – 6:30 PM
(3) Kansas (+0.11) vs (6) Oklahoma – 9:00 PM
(4) Texas Tech (+0.19) vs (5) Texas – 3:00 PM

Big XII Tournament Semi-Finals (11/07)

TBA vs TBA
TBA vs TBA

Big XII Tournament Final (11/09)

TBA vs TBA

Quick Hits

WTSR says that West Virginia are a major favorite to win the Big XII Tournament and that the only team with a realistic shot of knocking them off is Texas Tech, and they’ll only meet in the semi-finals if TTU can knock off Texas (WVU beat TCU before this column was written). The Red Raiders may be solidly ranked as the #2 via WTSR, but they’ve also got a tough quarterfinal match against WTSR #3 Texas. Whoever wins the semi-final on that half of the bracket should have a decisive advantage in the final.

On the other half of the bracket, Oklahoma State are slightly favored against Baylor but nowhere near the degree you’d expect given the difference in seeding between the clubs. OSU should be above the bubble fray, but a loss to a Baylor side knowing they need the auto bid could spell trouble. A Kansas team that’s faded a bit after their hot start is safely in the field and favored against Oklahoma but will also be missing starting goalkeeper Kaitlyn Stroud, who was sent off at the end of the match when the two clubs met last week. OU needs a win to solidify their NCAA Tournament standing and will be confident of getting just that win against a shorthanded KU.

Texas, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma all have plenty to play for in terms of locking up NCAA Tournament places, meaning there’s going to be a hell of a lot of urgency at Swope Park. West Virginia knows they have an outside shot at a #1 seed if they win out as well, so they’ll want to keep their eye on the prize this week.

Big Ten

Weighted Total Shot Ratio (MAX 2.00)

1.35 – (1) Penn State
1.17 – (4) Rutgers
1.16 – (2) Wisconsin
1.10 – (3) Michigan
1.09 – (7) Illinois
1.09 – (8) Northwestern
0.99 – (DNQ) Maryland
0.99 – (DNQ) Nebraska
0.98 – (DNQ) Ohio State
0.96 – (6) Minnesota
0.95 – (5) Iowa
0.81 – (DNQ) Purdue
0.77 – (DNQ) Indiana
0.65 – (DNQ) Michigan State

Schedule (WTSR difference in parentheses by home side/higher seed)

Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinals (11/05)

(1) Penn State (+0.26) 0 – 1 (8) Northwestern
(2) Wisconsin (+0.07) vs (7) Illinois – 4:30 PM
(3) Michigan vs (+0.14) (6) Minnesota – 7:30 PM
(4) Rutgers (+0.22) 0 – 1 (5) Iowa

Big Ten Tournament Semi-Finals (11/07)

TBA vs TBA
TBA vs TBA

Big Ten Tournament Final (11/09)

TBA vs TBA

Well, so much for that. I was prepared to write that Penn State was a solid favorite to win this tournament and be in the running for a #1 seed. I was prepared to write that their best competition was going to come from a Rutgers side that had drawn the weakest team in the competition in Iowa in the opening round. And after two matches, all of that means nothing, as both PSU and Rutgers are headed home early. Both victims of upsets to Northwestern and Iowa by a 1-0 margin, their dual defeats not only throws the conference tournament race wide open but ensures a potential bubble thief will be playing on Sunday afternoon in the Big Ten.

On the other side of the bracket, Wisconsin should be a slight favorite over Illinois, despite the disparity in seeds and is now favored to win the entire tournament and win the league’s auto bid. Illinois is nominally alive in the at-large bid picture but probably needs at least a few wins to work their way into contention. Michigan is a solid favorite over Minnesota in the other semi-final, with Minnesota in much the same situation as Illinois. Minnesota actually graded out worse in WTSR than the likes of Maryland, Nebraska, and Ohio State that did not qualify for this tournament.

Then again, so did Iowa. Taking anything for granted would appear to be foolish indeed at this year’s Big Ten Tournament.

Conference USA

(No SOG stats from the league. Blame them.)

Schedule

Conference USA Tournament Quarterfinals (11/05)

(1) North Texas vs (8) Marshall – 4:30 PM
(2) Rice 1 – 0 (7) Western Kentucky
(3) UTEP vs (6) Louisiana Tech – 1:30 PM
(4) Charlotte vs (5) Middle Tennessee State – 7:00 PM

Conference USA Tournament Semi-Finals (11/07)

TBA vs TBA
TBA vs TBA

Conference USA Tournament Final (11/09)

TBA vs TBA

Quick Hits

The C-USA no longer is any real threat for multiple bids, but it should still be an entertaining conference tournament. Just looking at goal differential, North Texas and Rice would appear to be on a collision course for the auto bid in the final. UNT won the league by three points and enter on a four match winning streak after a shock defeat to Florida Atlantic. These two sides met at Rice earlier in the year, finishing in a 1-1 draw. The Owls themselves advanced to the semi-final after beating Western Kentucky in the quarterfinal and won their last four in the league as well. Nicky Adams’ Owls play a style conducive to success at this time of year and should push the league winners all the way.

Other contenders figures to be no more than dark horses. UTEP has a fine defense but scores little, while Charlotte has home advantage but a very poor defense that let up sixteen goals in ten league matches. The other contenders figure to be happy to be here but not a serious challenge for the auto bid.

Sun Belt

Weighted Total Shot Ratio (MAX 2.00)

1.27 – (2) Troy
1.23 – (5) Appalachian State
1.22 – (1) South Alabama
1.19 – (3) Texas State
0.95 – (8) UALR
0.93 – (7) Louisiana-Lafayette
0.92 – (6) Georgia State
0.91 – (4) Georgia Southern
0.74 – (DNQ) Arkansas State
0.72 – (DNQ) Louisiana-Monroe

Schedule (WTSR difference in parentheses by home side/higher seed)

Sun Belt Tournament Quarterfinals (11/05)

(1) South Alabama (+0.27) vs (8) UALR – 8:00 PM
(2) Troy (+0.34) vs (7) Louisiana-Lafayette – 2:00 PM
(3) Texas State (+0.27) 1 – 0 (6) Georgia State
(4) Georgia Southern (-0.32) vs (5) Appalachian State – 5:00 PM

Sun Belt Tournament Semi-Finals (11/07)

TBA vs TBA
TBA vs TBA

Sun Belt Tournament Final (11/09)

TBA vs TBA

Quick Hits

Texas State and Troy have already advanced, both of which were predicted by WTSR. Troy is actually listed as favorites to win the competition as WTSR #1 and #2 seeds in the tournament. The Trojans have a potentially difficulty semi-final against Texas State though, meaning Troy isn’t going to have it easy if they’re to upset the odds. Adding to the drama is the fact that the club lost to Texas State in the regular season, 2-0. It was Troy’s last loss, as they reeled off four straight clean sheet wins to finish second in the league.

On the other side of the bracket, South Alabama should be a comfortable favorite to avoid a big upset against #8 seed UALR, despite the latter being underseeded at WTSR #5. The Jaguars may be listed as WTSR #3, but in reality, they’re probably a bit better than that considering they have home advantage for this competition. They face either a very daunting semi-final or one in which they should cruise in theory. #5 seed Appalachian State is ranked as WTSR #2 and took USA to extra time in the regular season, indicating how dangerous they are. By contrast, the club will catch a break if Georgia Southern advances out of the quarterfinal, as the Eagles are listed as the competition’s worst qualifying team.

Regardless, South Alabama doesn’t have it as easy as you’d suspect considering their league record. Graham Winkworth’s side has done very well after heavy losses from last year, but Troy and Appalachian State are very real threats to win the league’s auto bid.

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