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Stanford's Christen Press is the Frontrunner for the Hermann Trophy

(Here’s the latest in my ongoing series of mid-year looks at each of the major conferences. SEC and Mid-Major reviews coming soon.)

3 – Stanford
8 – Arizona State
10 – UCLA
13 – USC
16 – Cal
57 – Washington
62 – Oregon State
100 – Arizona
116 – Oregon
134 – Washington State

Mid-Term MVP: Christen Press (F) – Stanford (Honorable Mention: Alex Morgan – Cal, Karin Volpe – Arizona State, Teresa Noyola – Stanford, Lauren Barnes – UCLA)
Mid-Term Top Newcomer: Jenna Richmond (M) – UCLA (Emi Lawson – Cal, Jazmin Ponce – Arizona)
Mid-Term Top Goalkeeper: Chante Sandiford – UCLA
Most Surprising: Cal
Most Disappointing: Washington State
Best Hope for A National Title: Stanford
Best Hope for A College Cup Gatecrasher: Cal

Stanford (RPI Ranking – 3)

Best Result: 2-1 vs Portland
Worst Result: None
Leading Scorer: Christen Press (13 G, 4 A)
Top Newcomer: Emily Oliver (GK)
What I Said: “Kira Maker is an unfussy goalkeeper who is a steady presence in goal.”
What I Should Have Said: Oops. “Kira Maker could feel the heat from freshman Emily Oliver in goal if she isn’t on top of her game.” Hindsight folks, hindsight.
Mid-Term Grade: A – You really going to gripe with a team that goes on the road to Boston College and UNC in the same season?
Chris’ Odds of NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid: 100%
The Upside: National Champions. It’s a very short list of teams that can beat Stanford. The Cardinal’s biggest opponents might be themselves in the clutch.

Arizona State (RPI Ranking –

Best Result: 5-0 vs Nebraska
Worst Result: 0-1 vs Long Beach State
Leading Scorer: Karin Volpe (7 G, 1 A)
Top Newcomer: Jasmine Roth (D)
What I Said: “The Sun Devils should be in with a good chance of climbing up the Pac-10 standings and keeping the drama away from them on Selection Monday.”
What I Should Have Said: “A fast start could cushion the blow from a hot and cold finish in league play”
Mid-Term Grade: B – On September 18, this grade would have been an A+. Two losses and a draw later and some of the shine has worn off.
Chris’ Odds of NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid: 85%
The Upside: Last Sixteen. Sun Devils can light it up in a hurry, as 5-0 mauling of Nebraska shows. 0-5 loss to UCF also shows that they can be prone to brain fade. Favorable draw could see them get out of the first weekend but should they be among the seeded teams, they’ll be a trendy favorite to get bounced early.

UCLA (RPI Ranking – 10)

Best Result: 2-1 vs Notre Dame
Worst Result: 0-1 vs Northwestern
Leading Scorer: Sydney Leroux (6 G, 1 A)
Top Newcomer: Jenna Richmond (M)
What I Said: “If the Bruins figure to have a weakness, it’s on the back line.”
What I Should Have Said: “That weakness could make clean sheets a rarity (4 of 10 in 2010 thus far)
Mid-Term Grade: B – Bruins have been brilliantly frustrating. How can a team beat Notre Dame and Santa Clara but lose to Colorado and Northwestern
Chris’ Odds of NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid: 100%
The Upside: Last Eight. Bruins have great talent but don’t figure to make it to Cary before getting their wings clipped by their inconsistent ways.

USC (RPI Ranking – 13)

Best Result: 4-1 vs Oklahoma
Worst Result: 0-1 vs San Diego
Leading Scorer: Haley Boysen (3 G, 2 A)
Top Newcomer: Shelby Church (GK)
What I Said: “True frosh Shelby Church took the gloves for the season opener against San Diego, but who’s to say how quick of a hook Ali Khosroshahin will have if she struggles?”
What I Should Have Said: “But what if she doesn’t? USC could be stronger than you think.”
Mid-Term Grade: (A-) – Trojans have righted the ship after a bit of a rocky start. Fourteen goals in last four matches is encouraging.
Chris’ Odds of NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid: 90%
The Upside: Last Eight. You do not want to end up on the Trojans’ side of the bracket in November. They tackle like chainsaws and have a way of finding goals. USC hasn’t given up more than a goal in their ten matches so far. Teams that can’t deal with the Trojans’ style of play could wilt and lead USC deep into the bracket.

Cal (RPI Ranking – 16)

Best Result: 6-0 vs Long Beach State
Worst Result: 1-1 vs Pacific
Leading Scorer: Alex Morgan (10 G, 1 A)
Top Newcomer: Emi Lawson (D)
What I Said: “Those expectations should be to at least get out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Morgan’s magic could make them an outside bet to get further, but defensive inadequacies make that unlikely.”
What I Should Have Said: The Gold Cup (doubling as World Cup qualifiers in CONCACAF) could rob the Bears of Alex Morgan during the Pac-10 stretch run. How much damage could Morgan’s absence do to Cal?
Mid-Term Grade: B – Let’s just push that Pacific draw to the side. Bears are about where we thought they’d be.
Chris’ Odds of NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid: 85%
The Upside: Last Eight. That’s may be REALLY pushing it, as their main hope of making it that far is Morgan going supernova in the Big Dance, but their superstar has looked in fine form so far in 2010. Anything less probably means the Bears will go home in their usual territory.

Washington (RPI Ranking – 57)

Best Result: 1-1 vs Wisconsin
Worst Result: 0-1 vs Rutgers
Leading Scorer: Kate Deines (6 G, 0 A)
Top Newcomer: Lindsey Bos (M)
What I Said: “Kari Davidson enters her second full year as the starter in goal and her statistics improved markedly from her freshman year.”
What I Should Have Said: “…but her position could be under threat from Cal transfer (and cancer survivor) Jorde LaFontaine-Kussman”.
Mid-Term Grade: C – Huskies look completely and utterly average. Which is pretty much what was expected out of them this year.
Chris’ Odds of NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid: 50% (how’s that for a copout?)
The Upside: NCAA Tournament Berth – Huskies aren’t going to be pulling up any trees but can probably get there with a good result or two over high-flying league opponents. Circle the Oregon State match on October 24. It could very well be a bubble eliminator.

Oregon State (RPI Ranking – 62)

Best Result: None
Worst Result: 2-2 vs San Diego State
Leading Scorer: Chelsea Buckland (4 G, 1 A) & Melinda Ingalls (4 G, 1 A)
Top Newcomer: Jenna Richardson (F)
What I Said: “While the offense looks promising, the defense could be one of the best in the country.”
What I Should Have Said: “Facing a teddy bear soft non-conference schedule won’t hurt in that regard either.”
Mid-Term Grade: W – for “What Were You Thinking When You Assembled That Non-Conference Schedule?”
Chris’ Odds of NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid: 65%
The Upside: Your Guess Is As Good As Mine – Of the teams in the Big Six conferences, is there any bigger mystery than the Beavers? The laughable non-conference schedule has revealed little about whether OSU can repeat last season’s success in crunch time. You’d have to think that the loss to UC Irvine might be a foreboding sign though.

Arizona (RPI Ranking – 100)

Best Result: 1-1 vs UCF
Worst Result: 2-4 vs Pepperdine
Leading Scorer: Renae Cuellar (6 G, 3 A)
Top Newcomer: Jazmin Ponce (F)
What I Said: “That means this group could grow into something more than basement dwellers in a year or two, especially if Ponce and Montoya develop, but for 2010, they’ll just have to be satisfied with taking their lumps and fighting for an upset or two to improve last season’s one win Pac-10 campaign.”
What I Should Have Said: “But some of the other conference schools may slump from last year’s performance, meaning Arizona may be closer to getting off the bottom of the league than you’d think.”
Mid-Term Grade: B – Wildcats look like a Top 80-100 team which is a healthy step forward after last year’s horror show.
Chris’ Odds of NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid: 5%
The Upside: Eighth or Ninth in the Pac-10. Arizona are not going to be easy pickings for anyone outside the very top of the conference. The Wildcats are heading the right direction and could be in NCAA Tournament contention as soon as next season.

Oregon (RPI Ranking – 116)

Best Result: 0-0 vs SMU
Worst Result: 0-1 vs Kansas
Leading Scorer: Jen Stoltenberg (7 G, 4 A)
Top Newcomer: Brynne Konkel (F)
What I Said: “With the [Oregon State] Beavers’ newfound success, the pressure for Oregon to be more competitive in the conference is only increasing.”
What I Should Have Said: “…but there might be enough in Eugene to keep up with their state rivals.”
Mid-Term Grade: D – Ducks look a pale imitation of their own average selves in the past few years.
Chris’ Odds of NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid: 1%
The Upside: Eighth or Ninth in the Pac-10. Oregon looks like a program sinking into the mire after spinning its wheels for a long time. It might be time for some new blood at the top for the Ducks.

Washington State (RPI Ranking – 134)

Best Result: 1-0 Pepperdine
Worst Result: 1-2 vs Long Beach State
Leading Scorer: Micaela Castain (5 G, 0 A)
Top Newcomer: Castain (F)
What I Said: “Wazzu’s offense in its first year without Dallstream probably won’t score enough to mount a sustained Pac-10 challenge, but there should be enough there, when coupled with a stifling defense, to at least match last season’s NCAA Second Round showing.”
What I Should Have Said: “But if that defense becomes any less stifling, there could be a downturn in form in Pullman.”
Mid-Term Grade: C – Wazzu might be a better team than they appear on paper so far, all of those losses are to teams in the uRPI Top 55. But even though they lost a lot in the offseason, you’d think that they’d be able to gut out at least one or two of these tougher fixtures.
Chris’ Odds of NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid: 5%
The Upside: Sixth or Seventh in the Pac-10. Cougars look to be suffering through a down season, but of the Pac-10′s bottom three, they are by far the ones with the best chance of causing problems for the upper tier of the league. A return to the Big Dance looks doubtful though.

Revised Projected Order of Finish:

1. Stanford
2. UCLA
3. USC (up from 4th)
4. Cal (up from 5th)
5. Arizona State (up from 7th)
6. Oregon State (down from 3rd)
7. Washington (up from 8th)
8. Washington State (down from 6th)
9. Arizona (up from 10th)
10. Oregon (down from 9th)

View Original Post at allwhitekit.wordpress.com

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