There's Been Much To Celebrate for Seattle University in 2010

In the world of NCAA soccer, there are underdogs and there are underdogs. When Seattle University head coach Julie Woodward, practically part of the furniture for Redhawks soccer, set about with goals for the 2010 season, the NCAA Tournament was likely a carrot on a lengthy, elusive stick a long, long way away. .500 may have been a more immediate goal. Perhaps ten wins or a little more. After the first weekend, Seattle looked to not be pulling up any trees in 2010 with shutout losses to Pac-10 sides Washington and Oregon State.

But a funny thing happened after the opening weekend for the Redhawks. They won and kept winning. Among the highlights was a win against WAC contender Idaho and a second weekend win against UC Irvine. Little did Seattle know that a few months later, they would still be the only team to down the Anteaters. It’s that win that has the Redhawks dreaming of postseason soccer, the RPI bonus of beating the high-flying Anteaters on the road sending Seattle’s RPI soaring and also offsetting defeats to Boise State and Idaho State. Seattle also earned a creditable draw with Baylor, further boosting their resume.

The task facing Seattle in potentially earning a spot in the NCAA Tournament cannot be understated. The Redhawks are the equivalent of a group of nomads wandering through the college soccer desert. Seattle are a team without a conference, back eligible for the NCAA Tournament for the first time after making the move up from the lower levels of the NCAA. As an independent, Seattle has no automatic bid to aim for. There is no second chance of a conference tournament. No league to conquer to win an assured spot in the Big Dance. The odds of an independent making the NCAA Tournament are perilously long. 1,000,000:1 wouldn’t be much of an exaggeration. In general, bigger schools tend to avoid Independents like the plague, worried that these wandering schools will act as an anchor around their tournament resumes.

Think it’s easy being a Division I Independent? Glance at the aRPIs of the other three unaffiliated schools. 154 (Cal State Bakersfield), 176 (Longwood), 283 (Francis Marion). The Redhawks are currently ranked 68 in the estimated aRPI and have taken the proactive and rare step of adding a match to their schedule on short notice with idle Colorado on Saturday in Boulder. With five matches remaining, the odds for Seattle are still very long. One loss in the final five matches will likely spell the end of any at-large hopes. But if the Redhawks hit the jackpot and win all five matches, they could very well be in the mix. Two “random playouts” on the RPI spreadsheet tool had Seattle’s uRPI at 48 and 55 with a perfect run-in to the season. That’s right in the heart of bubble territory.

Of course being on the bubble is certainly no guarantee of a spot in the Big Dance. Much will hang on what UC Irvine and Baylor do for the rest of the season. It’s in Seattle’s best interest if those teams keep on winning. Seattle will still be saddled with the stigma of being an Independent team though. Some committee members will surely scoff at the tiny Redhawks and their unlikely at-large push. But if Seattle does manage to run the table, they’ll likely have four uRPI Top 100 wins along with a draw. To put that into perspective, that’s more of those quality wins than Oregon State, New Mexico, Santa Clara, Georgia, Miami (FL), Duke, Boston University, Dayton, Denver, Washington, Long Beach State, Toledo, Texas Tech, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, and South Florida right now. Are Seattle’s wins of the quality of some of those teams? Perhaps not, but their overall resume is still food for thought.

The Redhawks have been getting it done the old fashioned way: with a lot of graft, hard work, and tenacious defense. Leading scorer Emma Levy has tallied a fairly unremarkable five goals. By contrast, the Seattle defense has only conceded fifteen goals in their fourteen matches thus far stifling many opponents. It remains to be seen whether Seattle will get a serious look from the committee even if they win out and results elsewhere go their way. But let’s hope they keep up their winning form and force the committee to recognize their presence. Everybody loves a good underdog story.

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• 2010 NCAA Soccer