Some unforeseen circumstances this past weekend have held me up, but here, I send my belated congratulations to Canada and Mexico for earning automatic berths to next year’s Women’s World Cup in Germany. The two nations will face off at tonight’s CONCACAF Women’s World Cup Qualifying finals at 9pm ET for bragging rights as the confederation champions.

Of all the CONCACAF WWCQ tournaments that the US has participated in, this will mark the first time that a country other than the US will take home the trophy. Up until now, the only other nation to win the title was Canada in 1998 by defeating Mexico 1-0. The US didn’t participate that year since they automatically qualified for the WWC as hosts.

Recalling the path to the finals, last week’s semi-final showdowns began with game #1. Early on in the match, Canada had a difficult time finding the back of the net against Costa Rica despite a number of opportunities in the box. Diana Matheson, Josée Bélanger, Kaylyn Kyle and Christine Sinclair all sent their shots sailing over the crossbar. Costa Rica maintained possession quite well during the first half, but were unable to translate that into goals. The Canadians got a bit of a scare in the 19′ when a Costa Rican corner kick flashed across the face of goal. Kyle closely marked Costa Rica’s #9, successfully impeding her run to the far post for a tap in. Nearing the end of the first half, Costa Rica’s strike from 30 yards out went just wide of the net, but would have beaten LeBlanc had it been on frame.

Canadian nerves were finally settled in the 62′ when Sinclair ran to the end line and cut the ball back to an open player. Jonelle Filigno’s initial shot was saved but Bélanger was there to burry the rebound. 10 minutes later, a foul on Scott led to a free kick that fell to Filigno to slot into the net. A corner kick in the 72′ allowed Sinclair to score for a 3-0 lead and the win was capped off by a Costa Rican own-goal during the dying minutes of the game off a cross by Rhian Wilkinson.

Many fans tuned into semi-final #2 expecting to see Mexico take the long road to the WWC. Instead, they pulled off what ESPN and other news sources have been calling, “one of the biggest upsets in the history of women’s soccer.” See Jenna’s posts for insightful coverage of the match.

Maribel Dominguez snuck in behind the American backline to toe poke in the opening goal just 3′ into the game. The US eventually levelled the score in the 25′ when a poor punch by the Mexican ‘keeper, Erika Vanegas, fell to the feet of Carli Lloyd. But less than a minute later, the Mexicans notched the game winning goal when a cross from the right side was headed home by Veronica Perez.

Heading into the final match, Canada is 5-0 against Mexico in CONCACAF WWCQ, and in all international matches, Canada holds a 14-1-1 advantage. However, as Mexico proved in their win against the US, a team which they are now 1-24-1 against, history and statistics don’t mean a thing.

Although Mexico had a poor showing against Canada in their final group game, they rebounded with a strong performance against the US. So, which version of the Mexican team will show up tonight?

Keys to winning the game

Mexico:

1) Take advantage of early scoring opportunities. Canada has a tendency of starting each match with a few long balls to spark a quick attack and then slowly settle into a somewhat more possession oriented game. The opening minutes of the match may be an easy time for Mexico to pounce on loose balls and hold on to possession. Also, Canada is yet to concede a goal this tournament, so playing from a disadvantage may just be the mental tactic to nerve the Canadians.

2) Quick counter attacks. The Canadian backline tends to push up quite high, therefore, containing play in their opponent’s half of the field. But because they are so high up the field, they can be easily caught off guard by a quick through ball or long ball, and that’s exactly how T&T; and Mexico created the most dangerous scoring opportunities in the past week against Canada. Quick play also means that Mexico will not have to face off against a reset Canadian defensive unit, which not only is stingy, but also has about 7 players swarming the area, which would otherwise make things difficult.

3) Force Canada to play through central midfield. The fullbacks, midfielders, and forwards all tend to advance the ball down the wings then cross it in or play it to the end line and cut the ball back. Rhian Wilkinson (former forward now a defender) has been particularly dangerous on the right side. If Mexico cuts off that path out wide, then Canada will be forced into unfamiliar territory in the middle, therefore, stifling their attack.

Canada:

1) Score early and often. Putting on the pressure right from the get-go will be their best/easiest opportunity. Against the US, Mexico barged out of the gate to score in the 3′, which was a total mind f—. By the second half, Mexico bunkered and the US wasn’t able to get through a very populated defence. Mexico will also likely become defensively oriented late in the final, so Canada needs to put away goals before that happens.

2) Take advantage of set plays. This has traditionally been one of Canada’s strengths and continues to be under Carolina Morace. They have scored at least 6 of their 16 tournament goals on set plays. Mexico doesn’t exactly have the height or defensive strength to deal with this. More importantly, Canada can always whip a ball into the box to see if goalkeeper Vanegas is as error-prone as Cecilia Santiago was (although probably less so).

3) Mark tightly. Pretty much all of Mexico’s goals were the result of unmarked players getting to the end of passes. So, Canada needs to defend in the same fashion as they did in their group match against Mexico, which absolutely suffocated Mexico’s offence (and it was another great shutout by Canada, btw). At the same time, Canada needs to beware of strikes from distance because if a Mexican player has no passing options, then she will crack a shot herself, plus, Mexico has unleashed some of the most beautiful strikes this tournament.

Which team will lightening strike twice for? –Will Canada defeat Mexico twice in this tournament, or will Mexico defeat Canada and the US back-to-back, two countries that hold lopsided winning records against them?

View Original Post at allwhitekit.wordpress.com

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• CONCACAF Women's World Cup Qualifying

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• 2010 CONCACAF Women's World Cup Qualifying