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Let me start by saying that I put very little stock in the official rankings in XC. So much can happen. Teams usually go in with a solid five runners, and someone inevitably has a bad day. It’s really a race to see which team brings it on the only day that ultimately matters in the record books.

That being said, the team coming in as the favorite, Florida State, also has insurance in the form of a sixth runner. While they don’t have a stand-out individual, they employ impressive pack-running discipline, which makes this sixth potential scorer an ace in the hole, as they have room for someone to mess up. In a sport where the lowest score wins, the last scoring runner (#5) is going to notch the highest score. This is where pack-running can be an advantage, as the fifth runner is often pulled to the lowest position possible.

However, having an individual winner is also a big advantage, as having a runner score just one point is akin to racing with four athletes, while everyone else is racing with five. The two teams in this lucky position are Georgetown and last year’s winner Villanova. Habitual second place finisher Emily Infeld leads the Georgetown team and will be vying for that elusive overall win that she just can’t seem to take from returning champ Sheila Reid of Villanova. These two teams go head to head endlessly and are the biggest threat to Florida State’s position atop the podium.

The next two threats come from the newly-formed Pac-12 conference. Colorado won that showdown after finally introducing world-champs team member Emma Coburn to the line-up. Emma has the potential to claim this race as an individual, as my familiarity with her coach can attest to the fact that she probably hasn’t stamped her authority on a race yet this year. In fact, the entire team likely low-balled the Regional champs this year, as they were not under pressure to qualify, and Mark Wetmore is not a fan of dipping into the well at both Regionals and Nationals unless he has to.

The other Pac-12 threat is Washington. Washington had a brief phase of dominance a few years ago, but has since fallen off the top spot. However, they had a much stronger showing at the West Regional and, that being said, they have the potential to surprise everyone on the right day. They also have a potential individual podium placer in the form of surprise Pac-12 champion Katie Flood.

The other individual threats include Jordan Hassay, who has been a threat at every distance since the age of 16 and finished third last year behind Sheila Reid and Emily Infeld, and Kendra Shaaf, who was on the previously dominant Washington team, and has since transferred to UNC and won ACCs by a decent margin. Top-10 ranked teams per the NCAA D1 Coaches’ Poll: #1 Florida State #2 Villanova #3 Washington #4 Georgetown #5 Vanderbilt #6 Colorado #7 Iowa State #8 Arizona #9 West Virginia #10 Michigan

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