Boston Marathon - Women's preview

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Let’s open this up by addressing the pink elephant in the room: There has been an obscene amount of media surrounding Kara Goucher coming back from having a baby. However, she ran all the way up until the day she had the baby and then resumed the day her son turned one week old. That was one week off from running. Every athlete at some point, if not at several points in their running careers miss much more time than that for injuries. Almost every professional athlete takes more than a week off every year as a planned break. In fact, back in 1998-1999, I watched Kara go from not running a step while she had double-leg compartment syndrome surgery to being the most dominant XC runner in the NCAA in under 9 months. She has admitted herself that her mileage has been consistently higher going into this marathon than in marathons past. Not to mention the well-know post-pregnancy boost - in the months following pregnancy, women have been found to have an increased blood volume akin to blood doping and EPO.

The point of this assessment is twofold: first, don’t count Kara out. She has been playing the baby card longer than anyone has ever played the baby card, despite the fact that having a baby can have huge benefits. She is, after all, a two-time podium finisher in major marathons with a 30:55 10,000m PR. Second, if she does get beat, I don’t like her built-in excuse. It is going to take away from any great races that happen on Monday. Unless, of course, the winner runs a time that is out of realm of Kara’s previously displayed fitness. And, there are a handful of athletes who can do that.

The complete elite field:

Sharon Cherop, Kenya Ethiopia - 2:22:43 (Toronto, 2010)
Desiree Davila, USA 2:26:20 (Chicago, 2010)
Misiker Mekonin Demissie, Ethiopia 2:26:20 (Los Angeles, 2010)
Teyba Erkesso, Ethiopia 2:23:53 (Houston, 2010)
Woynishet Girma, Ethiopia 2:27:51 (Amsterdam, 2010)
Kara Goucher, USA 2:25:52 (New York, 2008)
Werknesh Kidane, Ethiopia 2:27:15 (Dubai, 2011)
Caroline Kilel, Kenya 2:23:25 (Frankfurt, 2010)
Florence Kiplagat, Kenya Debut
Merima Mohammed, Ethiopia 2:23:06 (Toronto, 2010)
Hellen Mugo, Kenya 2:27:16 (Carpi, 2010)
Catherine Ndereba, Kenya 2:18:47 (Chicago, 2001)
Tatyana Pushkareva, Russia 2:26:14 (Boston, 2010)
Caroline Rotich, Kenya 2:29:46 (New York, 2010)
Yuliya Ruban, Ukraine 2:27:44 (Frankfurt, 2010)
Blake Russell, USA 2:29:10 (Chicago, 2005)
Silvia Skvortsova, Russia 2:26:24 (Berlin, 2009)
Kim Smith, New Zealand 2:25:21 (London, 2010)
Alice Timbilili, Kenya 2:25:03 (Amsterdam, 2010)
Tirfi Tsegaye, Ethiopia 2:22:44 (Toronto, 2010)
Dire Tune, Ethiopia 2:23:44 (Frankfurt, 2010)

One very important feature to the race on Monday is that there is supposed to be an incredibly favorable wind. Athletes should expect the opportunity to run faster than they are capable of, and should remember to not screw up that opportunity. Because of this, I think it’s important to look at 10k PRs when considering the top contenders.

My personal favorite is Kim Smith. Despite being a Kiwi, Kim is an adopted US athlete, having attended college at Providence and staying there to train. With personal bests of a 4:24 mile, 8:35 for 3000m, 14:39 for 5000m, and 30:35 for 10,000m she could take on the top American track athlete at each and every event, but with a miniature build that is likely designed for the marathon. She is coming off a recent best of 67:36 for the half-marathon and a “race pace” sub-70 at New Bedford just a few weeks ago. With a little push from behind, that could very well prove to be race-pace on Monday.

Another heavy favorite is Florence Kiplagat. This is her debut marathon. However, she is the 2009 World Cross-Country Champion, 2010 World Half Marathon Champion, and has a 10,000m personal best of 30:11.53.

Boston veteran Dire Tune is the 2008 champion and lost in a kick in 2009, collapsing at the finish line. Since then, she has racked up a personal best of 2:23:44 and is coming off a 68:52 half marathon and 31:51 10k on the roads.

Sharon Cherop notched a personal best of 2:22:43 in Toronto last September and opened up the 2011 season with a fourth place finish at the Kenyan XC national championships, which is on a level of competitiveness that we just don’t see in the US.

The returning champion, Teyba Erkesso, is in the field. She is coming off three marathons in 2010, though, capped off with a 12th place finish at the NYC marathon. Similar story for last year’s runner-up who finished 15th in NYC. Both obviously have potential, but don’t stand out as favorites in this year’s field.

The other American that a lot of people would like to see win is Desiree Davila. However, considering her racing style, I wouldn’t expect her to win a major marathon. “Desi” will likely run the exact pace that she believes she is capable of throughout the entire race. This means that if the race goes out fast, you might not ever see her until the camera focuses on the finish line and you catch her clipping off some of the carnage. Her best shot at a win is if the field goes out at the pace she wants to run and she finds herself feeling good in the latter part of the race and decides to throw caution to the wind (I have never seen her throw caution to the wind).

It should be noted of course that this field does contain one 2:18 marathoner: Catherine Ndereba. However at 38 years old, she will have a hard time hanging with her younger competitors.

Speaking of age - we can’t miss one of the other great stories of the race. She hasn’t run Boston in 18 years - that is longer than most of the athletes in the field have been running - however she just discovered coffee a mere 18 months ago. So, expect a second coming of the great Joan Benoit Samuelson. “Joanie” was the 1979 and 1983 winner of the Boston Marathon, the latter with a then-world record of 2:22:43. Now, at the age of 53, she is unofficially going after yet another Olympic Trials qualifying time of 2:46. She just missed it with a 2:47 in Chicago last year. In fact, keep on eye on a bunch of American men and women who are looking to achieve the Olympic Trials qualifying times of 2:19 and 2:46 respectively. It should be a great day to do it.

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There are 3 comments on this post. Join the discussion!

Sue says:

Lesley, hold on to this article you wrote and then reread it if you have a baby....there is no doubt in my mind you will realize the errors in your current beliefs....I always find it odd that people think you can train hard through pregnancy(you can't... running is different from training), give birth and just start up again as if your body had not gone through anything of significance (I am not even going to go thru the post pregnancy gruesome details that last for months). The rbc boost is a joke, a post pregnancy woman cannot take advantage of it, it only lasts at most, 12 weeks and most women during that time are struggling to lose the weight,get back in some sort of shape and not get injured because of pelvic and abdominal changes from the pregnancy/delivery, ugh! When I look at all of my racing friends, none have gotten back in the racing shape they were in before having a baby.That Kara can run at this level in just 6 months is phenomenal!

Sunday, April 17, 2011 at 7:59pm EDT

LHiggs says:

Sue - I don't doubt that having a baby if very hard on your body. However, at the elite level, the list of women who run at least as well, if not better, after having children is longer than the list of those who don't. And, the increased blood volume would most certainly benefit an athlete who managed to hike her mileage back up to 100 very quickly without getting injured.

The amazing feat that Kara has pulled off has been hiking her volume back up that quickly without getting injured. Surviving the training is the real battle. The fact that she has survived means that when she steps on that starting line, she is at no disadvantage to her competitors.

Sunday, April 17, 2011 at 9:09pm EDT

stephaniemp says:

First, does anyone know how long it takes for all that blood/EPO resemblance stuff after pregnancy to help female athletes? I know that it helps but I thought it was just that generally they come back stronger, not necessarily the first couple races back (although, again, I don't know). Second, I don't think Kara is playing the pregnancy card. I think WE are (aka. the media and fans). It's exciting to see one of our favorite athletes have a child (babies are cute) and so we are playing it up. Yes, it's part of her life as a runner, and just like every other new mother they are going to talk about it. Can't fault her for that.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 5:08pm EDT

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