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America East
-Bubble: Boston University

It seems a little silly talking about BU needing an at-large bid considering they just cut through their biggest contenders to the auto bid in the AE like butter in the regular season finale. Hartford had been unbeaten, but the Terriers trounced them in merciless fashion. If the regular season champs were to lose to Hartford in the final, they just might have a case given a decent RPI and some bubble wins on their resume. Then again, Boston not claiming the league’s tournament title would constitute one of the biggest conference tournament shocks in quite some time if it goes down.

Atlantic 10
-Lock: La Salle
-Bubble: Dayton, UMass, Richmond

People keep waiting for La Salle to slip up, but the Explorers keep winning at the top of the A10, and it’s looking increasingly likely that the league leaders are going to be a lock for the NCAA Tournament by the time the A10 Tournament starts. The Explorers have a midweek makeup match against Rhode Island before finishing against Fordham on Friday. Neither looks to be much of a challenge though both are on the road. If La Salle can run the table with two more wins, even a loss in the A10 Tournament shouldn’t be enough to keep them from the Big Dance. Dayton’s been doing their best to make up for the ground lost after the loss to Richmond. Given some of their wins, they should be in decent shape if on the bubble and could be into the field safely if they win their final two matches in the regular season this weekend. UMass and Richmond remain fringe contenders at best.

ACC
-Lock: Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Maryland
-Bubble: NC State

The road to Kennesaw and the College Cup likely will run through ACC country, with the latest RPI numbers showing that the league could well grab two or three of the #1 seeds come Selection Monday. Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia, and North Carolina are all in a position to grab a coveted #1 seed, regardless of how they fare in the ACC Tournament in large part. Florida State and Boston College are fighting it out for a national seed, while Virginia Tech may join that discussion after their upset over North Carolina. The intrigue is behind them though. If Miami (FL) can’t get a result against Virginia and misses the ACC Tournament, they surely wouldn’t miss the NCAA Tournament too, right? With wins over Boston College, Maryland, and BYU, the Hurricanes would seemingly be in the field as their RPI looks to be in the safe range. Maryland actually has a lower RPI and has wins over Virginia Tech and Florida State along with draws against Stanford and Wake Forest, so they’d seemingly be in as well if they slip out of the ACC Tournament. For the true panic button scenario, think of NC State potentially beating Duke this Thursday. If that unlikely result goes down, could a team that bet the ACC champions and potentially an SEC co-champ (LSU) earlier in the year be left out with their RPI in decent shape?

Big XII
-Lock: Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas A&M;, Kansas
-Bubble: Texas, Missouri, Texas Tech

Could the Big XII have three teams amongst the nationally seeded this season? You’d have to think that Oklahoma State’s a lock at this point, while Texas A&M; is looking pretty good as well if they don’t fall off in these last few weeks. It’s going to be real interesting to see where perception meets reality with OSU as far as seeding goes. The Cowgirls are 16-0-2, but some weak opponents on their resume have them currently below some teams with multiple losses. If they run the table for the rest of the way, would they be in line for a #1 seed? Meanwhile, Baylor has a big RPI, but with their best wins over Kansas and Louisville, would the committee see them as worthy for a national seed if they don’t beat Oklahoma State or Texas A&M; in the Big XII Tournament? Kansas has been an adventure at every turn this season, but it looks like they’ll be fine as long as they avoid a loss to Oklahoma in the regular season finale. There’s all sorts of jostling for position behind them. Texas has only won one of its last four but has still somehow found its profile rising in recent weeks. The draw with Oklahoma State certainly helps, but a win in Austin over Texas A&M; would give them some wiggle room heading into San Antonio. A loss to the Aggies would likely mean that the Horns need to win a Big XII Tournament game. Missouri is right back in it after a win over Kansas but also has losses to bubble rivals Texas and Texas Tech hanging over their heads. They need to avoid losing to Iowa State this weekend while also likely needing a Big XII Tournament win. Texas Tech shot itself in the foot with their loss to Iowa State and has won just one of their last four league matches. It’s unlikely they beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater, meaning the Red Raiders may have to reach the Big XII Tournament final in San Antonio depending on matchups.

Big East
-Lock: Marquette, West Virginia
-Bubble: Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville

Marquette and West Virginia are both safely in the field after sharing the Big East title, though the former are in a much better position to be nationally seeded at the moment. That could change dramatically with the Big East Tournament though considering West Virginia’s head-to-head win in the regular season means they get a significantly weaker opponent than the Golden Eagles, who draw Notre Dame in the quarterfinal round. The Mountaineers also have a big advantage thanks to hosting the later rounds of the tournament in Morgantown. The Fighting Irish really need to win on Sunday, such are their RPI numbers. A loss to Marquette wouldn’t be a guaranteed deathblow, but the Irish’s profile isn’t great, having not beaten a uRPI Top 50 team. Also concerning is the fact that Notre Dame has head-to-head losses to bubble rivals Georgetown and Louisville as well. The Hoyas don’t have a great profile either but do have the win over Notre Dame, though a loss to Syracuse in the Big East Tournament would not bode well. Louisville’s got wins over both the Hoyas and Irish, but like with Georgetown, it’d be in their best interest to not lose in the Big East Quarterfinal against a team with a poor RPI.

Big Ten
-Lock: Penn State
-Bubble: Illinois, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State

Penn State’s playing for a national seed, and preferably a top eight spot to have the best odds for hosting in the second weekend should they make it there. Illinois’ also looks in great shape for an at-large bid after reeling off seven straight wins in the Big Ten. The real madness is behind them, with Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan State all fighting for a spot in the Big Dance. OSU has been in freefall lately and has won just two of seven, though, crucially, one of those wins was against bubble rival Wisconsin. The loss to Michigan State underscored their troubles though, and they may not even make it to the Big Ten Tournament if they lose to Indiana this weekend. Wisconsin looked to be Big Ten title favorites after beating Penn State and Michigan State but then won just one of their next six to slide down the bubble to their current precarious position. Beating Purdue and Indiana last weekend helped, but they likely need to beat Iowa this weekend and win a Big Ten Tournament match to feel at ease. Michigan State entered Big Ten action without anything resembling a passable NCAA Tournament resume, and it’s arguable as to whether much has changed since league play started. The Spartans got a victory in a must-win encounter against Ohio State, but their profile looks weakest of the three Big Ten bubble hopefuls, meaning they might need to win one or even two games in Evanston next week.

Big West
-Lock: UC Irvine
-Bubble: Long Beach State

Winning tends to solve a lot of bubble problems. See: UC Irvine. After two uncharacteristic slips from the Anteaters early in league play, they’ve now won five in a row to move to the top of the Big West table and move into lock status. If they beat UC Riverside and win the Big West Tournament, you’d have to think they have an outside shot at a national seed as well. Long Beach State is also hanging around on the bubble periphery but probably needs the auto bid to make it back to the Big Dance thanks to a paucity of quality results in their profile, though San Diego’s recent resurgence has done them a bit of good in the computers.

Colonial
-Bubble: William & Mary

William & Mary was well on its way to being able to relax a little through the CAA Tournament and then…well, let’s just say the loss to VCU could make things more interesting than the Tribe would have liked. They still have a win over Georgetown to tout, but W&M; is cutting it pretty close. They have to beat Old Dominion in the regular season finale and may want to make it to the CAA Tournament final to give themselves a fighting chance if they don’t get the auto bid.

Conference USA
-Lock: Memphis, UCF
-Bubble: Rice, Tulsa, East Carolina

The situations of Memphis and UCF hasn’t changed, just the gap in RPI between the two teams after Sunday’s thumping in Orlando. The Tigers look in line for a national seed, while the Golden Knights could possibly join them if they can win the Conference USA Tournament while knocking Memphis down a peg in the process. Given how soundly they were beaten last week and the fact that the tournament is in Memphis, that may be optimistic to say the least. After a quick start, Rice has tumbled down the pecking order in the bubble race, and like fellow bubble dwellers Tulsa and East Carolina, will need to win three matches in Memphis next week to go dancing.

Horizon
-Lock: Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Milwaukee’s second loss of the season isn’t going to cost them a spot in the NCAA Tournament, but it might just cost them a national seed. The shocking defeat to Illinois State pushed the Panthers down from their lofty position in the RPI and showed that Milwaukee is still certainly human. Of course, that might only comfort the Panthers’ Horizon League rivals so much considering the Redbirds are members of the Missouri Valley Conference, and that was a rare late non-conference meeting. Can the Panthers undo the damage that loss dealt them? Perhaps, but looking at the RPIs of their fellow Horizon League teams, it might be a bit of an ask.

Ivy
-Bubble: Harvard, Penn

The race for the title of being champion of The Ancient Eight looks to be a two horse race this season between Harvard and Penn. The Crimson currently enjoy a one point lead at the top of the table with the added bonus of having already beaten the Quakers head-to-head this season in their opening league fixture. If the Crimson can hold their nerve over the last few weeks of the season, Boston could well have three very good teams in the NCAA Tournament flying the flag for the city.

MAC
-Bubble: Central Michigan, Western Michigan

Toledo, who isn’t even on the bubble radar, leads the MAC, but Central Michigan gave itself a slight chance of leapfrogging the Rockets to the league title if Ball State can somehow upset the leaders on the final day of the regular season. The big question though is if CMU can somehow wiggle themselves into an at-large bid should they come up short in the MAC Tournament. With wins over Louisville and Wisconsin, both on the road, the prospect doesn’t seem so far fetched, especially if the Chippewas end up in the bubble pool with those two sides. CMU has to be wary of the bubble hit they’ll take if they lose in the MAC Tournament though, so it’d be best for the hopes if they just took down the auto bid. Western Michigan’s been on a tear as of late with four straight clean sheet victories, but it will all go for naught if they don’t lift the MAC Tournament trophy.

Pac-12
-Lock: Stanford, UCLA
-Bubble: Cal, Oregon State, Washington State, Washington

Cal looked like they were in lock status until taking a devastating loss to Colorado that submarined their RPI back into the bubble zone. The win against Utah likely eased the pressure a little bit, but beating Oregon would probably be in their best interests. If they do that, they could probably survive losses to Oregon State and Stanford in their final two matches. Oregon State really needed two wins last weekend against the Washington schools and got them both in convincing fashion. Beating Stanford would obviously make them locks, but if OSU can’t get the upset, not losing to Oregon would probably suffice, though a win over Cal as well would help their position. Washington State is looking a whole lot more shaky now after dropping both games in Oregon over the weekend. They probably need two of three in their remaining fixtures, though sweeping them would likely be a good idea. Given WSU’s road form though, that’s far from a given. Washington’s a game under .500 and nearly out of the bubble picture. Their only hope is to sweep their remaining three matches and hope that a lot of bubble teams in front of them implode down the stretch.

SEC
-Lock: Florida, Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, LSU
-Bubble: South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama

Barring somebody taking a bad loss in the final matchday of the regular season, you can probably pencil in the SEC for seven berths in the Big Dance. South Carolina and Georgia are technically on the bubble but look like having enough on their league resume to feel safe heading into Selection Monday. The question is if any of the teams above them can join Florida as a national seed. It’ll likely take a run in Orange Beach, but it’s not out of the question really for any of the top seven, and you certainly wouldn’t bet against Carolina considering their title winning form. The fly in the ointment could be an Alabama squad that suddenly has life again after a win over Tennessee and a draw against Georgia. If they beat Auburn on Friday and then pull a shocker in Orange Beach, who knows?

Southland
-Bubble: Stephen F. Austin

One of just seven teams in the country with a 100% conference record, the Ladyjacks have quite simply destroyed their Southland opponents this season, scoring thirty-one goals and conceding zero in their league matches. Despite that, they aren’t getting an at-large bid should they slip up, so let’s hope they can take care of business and get a chance on a bigger stage.

Sun Belt
-Bubble: Denver

Denver’s had little trouble with most of their Sun Belt opposition in their farewell tour from the conference before heading out to the WAC next season. The Pioneers were able to lift the league title with a pair of wins against the Arkansas schools last week but will be keenly aware of the loss to Florida International a week before that showed they were still mortal. With little on their non-conference resume, the Pioneers will have to run the gauntlet in the Sun Belt Tournament again if there’s not to be a repeat of last season’s heartbreak.

WCC
-Lock: Pepperdine, Santa Clara
-Bubble: San Diego, BYU, Portland

Pepperdine and Santa Clara will both be looking to finish strong, not only for a potential league title but also for an edge in earning a national seed come November, with both possibly in the frame for one. The intrigue behind them is palpable as San Diego, BYU, and Portland shuffle and reshuffle in the closing weeks of the season. San Diego’s responded to a five match losing streak with a for match winning streak that has revived their postseason hopes to some degree. The Toreros still have to play BYU and Santa Clara though, so they aren’t totally in the clear yet, though they should be if they can win two of their last three. BYU’s clawed their way back into the picture after languishing at the back end of the bubble for so long. Taking care of business against San Francisco and St. Mary’s is crucial, and if BYU can hold serve against San Diego in Provo as well, they should be in. Portland’s the team a lot of folks will be following down the stretch. The Pilots are a game under .500 and on the fringe of the bubble right now but also has wins over Florida State, Washington State, and Oregon State. Essentially, that means if the Pilots can just win two of their last three and get to .500, the odds look good. They’d look better if one of those wins was against league leaders Pepperdine, whose RPI would be a massive boost to the Pilots in the case of a win or draw.

WAC
-Bubble: Utah State

Utah State recovered well from being stunned by Hawaii in their league opener and have now won four straight to take control of their destiny in the WAC. The Aggies started out the season on fire but then dipped considerably after an upset to Tulsa right before two big games on the road against Oklahoma State and BYU. Back in form, the side from Logan could prove to be a thorn in someone’s side come the NCAA Tournament…provided they win the WAC Tournament.

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