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Things probably aren’t as bad as they could be, but the AAC is likely a three horse race for an at-large bid with UCF the best hope by a mile, with UConn and South Florida likely to sweat all the way to Selection Monday. Don’t count out Tulsa either, even if they are a longshot. The Golden Hurricane may be getting done in by Oklahoma’s slide in the past few weeks though. UCF are still likely league favorites with UConn also in with a good shot at silverware, especially if Rachel Hill keeps firing true.

East Carolina, Temple, and Cincinnati have all been surprisingly spry in non-conference action, though none are expected to make a tangible impact on the title race. Memphis continues to be a disappointment as of late with a 3-4-2 non-conference record that is surely leading some to question the long-term direction of the program. Meanwhile, SMU and Houston continue to be huge anchors on the RPI of the rest of the league. SMU may finish out of the RPI Top 100 for the second straight season, while Houston has won just one of seven despite playing just one team that’s currently in the RPI Top 150.

UCF

Current RPI – 16
Best Result – The solid win over Texas…but that doesn’t really gel with their RPI position.
Worst Result – No bad losses really, but they were underwhelming against Georgia after a rough travel road to Athens.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 85%

The Knights have a lot of marginal level wins over teams they should really be beating…and not much else. There’s absolutely nothing here to indicate the Knights are in the mix for a national seed despite those wins and a lack of bad losses, and there’s not much help to be found in the league either. They’ll probably be fine as they’re better than about everyone else in the league by some margin, but they probably don’t want to be on the bubble when the brackets are unveiled.

UConn

Current RPI – 34
Best Result – The win over Hofstra? Yeah…they need more.
Worst Result – The draw at Syracuse probably feels like a loss.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 70%

The Huskies better keep winning to get themselves above the bubble scrutiny zone. Really, they’ve spent the first half of the season beating up on the region’s small schools but have failed both of their big tests against Penn State and Florida State. Their only win over a major conference school is the blowout over a deeply disappointing Saint John’s (NY) team. They should be fine though, as most of the league won’t be able to match their firepower.

South Florida

Current RPI – 37
Best Result – The win at Boston College right now, though they’re hoping BC turns it around.
Worst Result – How the hell did this team lose to Florida Atlantic?
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 70%

The Bulls really improved their NCAA Tournament hopes with their last two wins against Texas and Boston College after previously looking like they had no chance in hell after a terrible start where they didn’t win any of their first three matches. Since, they’re 5-1-0 with those two wins probably helping it out if USF ends up on the bubble. But those aren’t blowaway wins, and South Florida would still be better off by winning most of their AAC matches to finish above the bubble.

Temple

Current RPI – 60
Best Result – Their only win against a team in the RPI Top 100 is Cornell.
Worst Result – Given their start, the loss to Delaware was disappointing.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 0%

Barring an insane collapse, Temple’s going to end the season with their highest finish in the RPI after I started tracking this stuff in 2006. With zero finishes in the RPI Top 200 in that timespan, this has already been a successful season for the Owls. There’s nothing there for an at-large bid though, and they haven’t had a really strenuous non-conference schedule, so mid-table obscurity in the AAC would be another great sign of progress.

East Carolina

Current RPI – 66
Best Result – Probably the win over UNC Greensboro.
Worst Result – Considering their two losses are to great programs, probably the draw against UNC Wilmington, though that’s not bad at all.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 0%

The Pirates haven’t really reinvented the wheel so far. Beaten teams they should be beating, lose to teams they never had a prayer of beating. The results against high level mid-majors aren’t bad, so they should be fine for mid-table in the AAC if they play to their potential. At-large bid? Nope.

Tulsa

Current RPI – 67
Best Result – Even with their slide, the draw against Oklahoma.
Worst Result – The frustrating loss to Oklahoma State.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 15%

The draw with Oklahoma probably looked a lot better before the Sooners started slipping. None of Tulsa’s losses are bad (not even the OSU defeat), but there just doesn’t appear to be enough meat on the bones for an at-large bid from a purely non-conference result perspective. If Tulsa can win a few games against the league’s big three this year? Then things become interesting. At least if the bubble is weak.

Memphis

Current RPI – 79
Best Result – The draw against Ole Miss is all they have right now.
Worst Result – The draw with Lipscomb may have been a warning of programs headed in different directions.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 5%

There’s little reason to have faith in Memphis rising to the level of contending for an at-large bid, other than old notions of a name brand. The Tigers look to be stuck in the same rut they’ve been in the past two seasons, with just one win in six matches against major conference foes this season. If Ole Miss soars in league play and Memphis can almost run the table in the AAC, they might have a chance. The odds on that actually happening? Not great.

Cincinnati

Current RPI – 95
Best Result – The win over Syracuse was another big step forward for the program…
Worst Result – …which was good, because the loss to Vanderbilt was a spurned opportunity.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 0%

It’s hard to get a good judge on the Bearcats, even if they’ve proven they’re more than competent. This is a Cincy club that’s played major conference opposition but also that has only played just one team in the RPI Top 80 thus far. That’s not their fault for the most part, but it doesn’t really give a good indicator as to the ceiling or floor for the Bearcats. Still, it’s safe to say their chances of an at-large bid are nil before league play given their resume.

SMU

Current RPI – 164
Best Result – They have just one win over an RPI Top 170 team: UTSA. Eek.
Worst Result – Oral Roberts isn’t bad, but SMU shouldn’t be losing to them.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 0%

SMU are a major conference team still performing like a mid-major club. They’re conceding buckets to bigger clubs, which is understandable in part against Nebraska and Kansas, but to sides like TCU? And why is this program losing to Oral Roberts? The wins are unimpressive to say the least, and SMU look to be in frame to be another disappointment if they can’t perform much better in the league.

Houston

Current RPI – 201
Best Result – Not much, but the draw against Utah State, I suppose.
Worst Result – Take your pick. The draw against Houston Baptist may be least amongst equals.
Chris’ Best Guess % At an NCAA Tournament At-Large Bid – 0%

Oy vey. This program has won two out of twenty-five matches. Two of twenty-five! And there’s not much evidence of this program excavating itself from the pit of misery it’s descended into. Their only win this season is over a miserably bad McNeese State side, while they’ve lost to Mercer and drawn with some equally wretched sides in the meantime. I think they’ll win at least one game in the league, but another finish out of the RPI Top 200 is definitely possible.

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