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No bare bones about this one. Zone designations through Sunday’s results.

AAC
-Lock: UCF
-Bubble: Rutgers, Louisville, UConn, Memphis, South Florida

UCF’s in a pretty good position right now for a national seed after their win against Louisville, and the Knights will see those odds increase if they top Rutgers this week, as they’ll be heavily favored the rest of the way in the regular season. Rutgers and Louisville are in a pretty good position for at-large bids as well, though the Scarlet Knights seem to be banking a whole lot on the draw with William & Mary right now. Louisville’s probably in a safer position thanks to results against Virginia Tech and Rutgers. UConn’s flirting with danger right now, with their win against Boston College eroding in value right now, though they do have chances to improve their position with Louisville and Rutgers still on their schedule. Memphis almost assuredly has to get a result at UCF this weekend to stand a chance without doing some serious work in the AAC Tournament thanks to a lack of a profile. South Florida’s defeat to Cincinnati may spell curtains for their hopes, though their profile isn’t that bad. But the Bulls might have to run the table down the stretch or win some matches in the AAC Tournament.

Atlantic 10
-Bubble: VCU, La Salle

La Salle has the tiniest of hopes if they run the table and fall late in the A10 Tournament if James Madison does likewise, but other than that, there’s basically nothing on the Explorers’ profile that is going to get them over the line come scrutiny time from the committee. VCU’s a little further up the line in the RPI, but their best RPI result was last weekend’s draw with La Salle, so there at-large chances are basically nil.

ACC
-Lock: Virginia, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Wake Forest, Notre Dame
-Bubble: Boston College, Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Miami (FL), Syracuse
-Bubble (Danger): NC State

Virginia and North Carolina meet on Sunday and are odds on for two of the #1 seeds come November. I think Florida State could also work their way into the mix if they keep winning, while Notre Dame also has a really good win profile but have been hurt by their recent slump. Virginia Tech and Wake Forest are both in good position for seeds, but their profiles don’t really compare against the above at this point. The other side of the league is an absolute donnybrook. The foursome of Boston College, Duke, Maryland, and Clemson all will probably make it in if they end up at .500…and that’s a pretty big if for all four at this point. Miami (FL) was looking to be back in the mix after beating Notre Dame, but a subsequent defeat to Syracuse may be telling, while that same result has kept Syracuse clinging to the bubble right now. NC State is technically still on the bubble, but the Wolfpack don’t look long for it after being cannon fodder for much of the rest of the league thus far.

Big XII
-Lock: West Virginia
-Bubble: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, Texas

It’s a mess. There are some pretty dire disaster scenarios that see the Big XII getting just a single bid if West Virginia wins the auto bid. The Mountaineers are pushing towards a national seed and may get there if the win most or all of their remaining games, though the Big XII’s relative weakness may curb that ambition. Of the other hopefuls, Oklahoma State is in the best shape thanks to a draw with Florida State and some other solid results, though they still need to finish at .500 and be in the bubble zone come season’s end. It’s somewhat grim for the other three clubs in the bubble picture. Texas Tech has a profile full of a whole lot of nothing and probably needs a result against West Virginia if they don’t win the auto bid. Baylor’s even worse off, with the same hollow profile but also having already lost to West Virginia in the regular season. Texas was looking to be in decent shape with the profile when Georgia was flying but are now in the same situation as Texas Tech and Baylor, while also having already lost to West Virginia. That trio’s going to be aiming for West Virginia in the Big XII Tournament, but they can’t all knock back the Mountaineers.

Big East
-Lock: Marquette, Georgetown
-Bubble: Saint John’s (NY), DePaul, Villanova
-Bubble (Danger): Butler

Marquette and Georgetown are, unsurprisingly, the class of the league and, somewhat surprisingly, are both in contention for a high national seed. The Golden Eagles look to be in better shape right now after pummeling the Hoyas over the weekend and have a great shot at a #1 seed if they run the table. Georgetown should be safe for a seed, but they really needed that game against Marquette to boost their #1 hopes. It’s going to be tough for the next few teams in the league. Saint John’s (NY) has a shot if they can get a result against Georgetown coming up, otherwise, they’ll need some big results in the Big East Tournament. DePaul’s in a much better situation thanks to their earlier draw against Georgetown, it’s just a matter of getting on the bubble zone right now. Villanova’s not dead but probably has to run the table down the stretch and make a deep postseason run. Ditto for Butler, who has a win over Michigan but is in danger of falling off the bubble after a rough start to league play.

Big South
-Bubble (Danger): Radford

Radford looks to be the class of the Big South after six straight wins to open up league play, having conceded just once in the process. The Highlanders are probably closer to being in contention for an at-large bid than you might think, as they only lost 2-1 to William & Mary, a result which would have potentially seen them in the mix. As it stands, Radford will just have to finish the job in the always volatile Big South Tournament.

Big Ten
-Lock: Penn State, Michigan, Nebraska, Minnesota
-Bubble: Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio State, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State, Purdue

Penn State’s a contradiction at this point, as they’ve got the RPI of a top seeded team but certainly not the profile. The Nittany Lions should be seeded, but it’s probably going to be lower than expected if they can’t keep winning down the stretch. Michigan’s got a pretty good profile with wins over Penn State and Nebraska and is a solid dark horse for a #1 seed. Nebraska’s profile is a bit thin in all honesty, and they might need some wins down the stretch to maintain a spot as a seed. Minnesota might be the direct opposite, with big results over Michigan and Penn State but also some awful league results that could push them out of seed range. The rest of the league is a muddle right now. Wisconsin’s draw against Michigan should get them in, but their odds of a seed look a bitt fraught. Indiana’s got a win against Minnesota and nothing else, though they do have opportunities to move up. Ohio State’s got a draw against Minnesota and a win against Indiana, though that looks to be marginal at this point with their RPI ranking. Illinois’ another borderline case at this point who could use some more big results down the stretch. Iowa’s got a nice record but a paucity of meaningful results. Iowa’s got a lot of chances for improvement, but their only result worth noting at this point is a win at Indiana. Michigan State and Purdue are technically alive but well down the pecking order and need to run the table or come close to it to try and sneak into the field.

Big West
-Bubble: UC Irvine, Long Beach State

The Big West has been a bastion of at-large bid contenders in the past few seasons. It ain’t gonna be that way this season. UC Irvine has a win at BYU but little else of note and doesn’t really have much room to move up given their current ranking. Long Beach State’s lower in the ranking, has wins against Texas Tech and BYU, but also has little room for upward movement and also faces a season out of the Big Dance if they don’t win the league’s auto bid.

Colonial
-Lock: William & Mary
-Bubble: James Madison
-Bubble (Danger): Delaware

William & Mary are going to be an interesting case. Historical precedent says they’re in. A closer look at their profile…maybe not. The Tribe have a neutral site draw at Rutgers and win over James Madison, but will that be enough? The rest of the league probably isn’t going to help their cause, meaning they might want to run the table the rest of the way in CAA play to feel a little safer. James Madison is high in the rankings but has nothing on their profile whatsoever, and their only hope would seemingly be beating W&M in the CAA Tournament before the final. Delaware’s here, because they’ve avoided bad results for the most part. The Blue Hens don’t have a shot at an at-large bid and will probably disappear from the watch next week.

Conference USA
-Lock: Colorado College
-Bubble: Tulsa
-Bubble (Danger): UTEP

Colorado College is in…unless they aren’t. The Tigers’ best result is their win over Texas in mid-September, and really, that shouldn’t be good enough to get them in. You’d normally point to the example of Dartmouth last season, but CC is about twenty places higher in the RPI right now than where the Big Green finished. There’s not much room for upside for the Tigers though, so they probably need to win and keep winning to stay as far away from the bubble as possible. Tulsa had their chance(s) against Penn State, Arkansas, and Colorado College but came up short each time and doesn’t have a realistic shot at an at-large bid. Ditto for UTEP who is somehow still on the bubble fringe despite not having a positive result against any RPI Top 100 team!

Ivy
-Bubble: Brown
-Bubble (Danger): Penn

Penn’s Monday win over Navy (not reflected in the preliminary designation above) upped their odds of an at-large bid considerably, but it’s still a little unfathomable to think they’ll be in bubble range if they don’t run the table and take home the auto bid for the league title anyway. If they do get in range, they may actually have a decent shot with their draw at William & Mary. Brown have done very well thus far as underdogs in the Ivy League, but their at-large bid hopes are essentially nil after zero wins over sides in the uRPI Top 100.

MAAC
-Bubble: Monmouth

The Hawks have been having a phenomenal season, and the fact that a MAAC side is this high in the RPI is quite an achievement. That being said, the club has played just one side in the uRPI Top 100, Delaware, whom they beat in the season opener. Of course, that’s not going to be anywhere near good enough to net them an at-large bid, so they’ll be looking to stave off an upset in the MAAC Tournament in a few weeks.

Pac-12
-Lock: UCLA, Stanford
-Bubble: Cal, Colorado, Washington State, Utah, Washington, Arizona State
-Bubble (Danger): USC

UCLA’s look good for a #1 seed, but there’s uncertainty behind them. Stanford is dropping like a rock after a three game losing streak and can’t afford to take too many more defeats if they want to stay seeded come November. Cal’s probably good for a spot in the tournament, though they might need to add on to their draw with Santa Clara if they want a seed. Colorado doesn’t have much besides their win over Colorado College, though their RPI ranking is probably high enough to absorb all but a total meltdown. Washington State is in almost the same boat, though their best result is against Colorado, indicating they may need to win three or four more games down the stretch to feel safe. There’s more intrigue deeper into the bubble picture in the Pac-12. Utah has a draw against Kentucky that’s looking better and better, along with a draw against Cal and win over Washington State, but will that be good enough on the bubble? Washington’s got one of the best results of anyone this season with their draw at UCLA but are at .500 with six to play and have few gimmes in that stretch. Arizona State may be beginning to pay the price for losses against Boise State and Oregon State and needs to turn things around in the second half of league season. The win over Stanford looks good, but it’s not not going to matter if ASU can’t stay on the bubble. USC’s comatose season was revived with a win over Stanford, but they’re still at .500 and well out of the bubble picture. They probably need to run the table or come damn close to it if they want to make it into the field of sixty-four.

Patriot
-Bubble: Boston University, Navy
-Bubble (Danger): Colgate

Boston University probably could have done without the draw against Harvard, but they still look to be in decent shape thanks to their early draw with South Carolina, though they’ll probably be hoping UConn get it together down the stretch. The Terriers should be fine if they avoid some meltdowns in league play. Navy really suffered some serious damage by losing to Penn in non-conference play on Monday and are probably going to need to win out and fall in the Patriot League Tournament final to get a sniff of an at-large. Colgate’s here for the moment as a side without any bad losses but nothing close to a significant win to push the committee in their direction.

SEC
-Lock: South Carolina
-Bubble: Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU, Alabama

South Carolina’s safe and contending for a national seed but it’s chaotic behind them. The Gamecocks probably aren’t going to be in the running for a top two seed thanks to a lack of a marquee win on the resume, though if they keep winning, they should be good for a lower seed. Tennessee’s a weird one since they’re 7-5-2 and 1-3-1 in their last five. They’ve got a win against UCF on the road and…not much else. The schedule’s not bad down the stretch, but UT has to get it back together to avoid bad losses. Kentucky’s rising fortunes have as much to do with its wins over Louisville and West Virginia as it does its four match win streak, though the victory over Tennessee does help. Florida’s sagging badly at the moment, partially due to the RPI blow that Mississippi State inflicted on them, but they’ll probably be fine if not necessarily favored for a national seed. Things begin to get dicey behind them. Arkansas has lost five of seven and is beginning to get itself into trouble, though you’d think they’d get the benefit of the doubt on the bubble with wins over Nebraska and Kentucky on their resume. Ole Miss’ profile is pretty uninspiring in comparison with bubble rivals, and they really need a result against South Carolina or risk needing to win almost all of their games down the stretch. Georgia’s got a win against SC, but they also have zero wins in four and really need to turn it around lest they risk slipping off the bubble. Texas A&M’s profile is shockingly poor at this point, and the aggress don’t even get a shot at South Carolina in the regular season, meaning they need to win a lot of games down the stretch to propel themselves up the rankings. LSU are leading the league right now, but their best result is a win over Arkansas, their only positive result against a Top 50 uRPI side right now. They also miss South Carolina in the regular season and probably need three or four wins to feel better about their chances. Alabama’s alive, technically, but the Crimson Tide are also three games under .500, meaning their at-large bid hopes are all but dead barring a miracle run down the stretch.

Southern
-Bubble: Samford

Samford’s got a pretty good win against Tennessee on their resume that would at least see them given a look if they make the bubble. That’s far from guaranteed though, as the SoCon begins sapping their RPI. They really needed to run the table or come close to it, and the draw against woeful Georgia Southern in the first league game may have put the kibosh on their at-large hopes. They really need to run the table now and go a long way in the SoCon Tournament to stand a sliver of a chance, and even then, it might not be enough.

Southland
-Bubble: Oral Roberts, Stephen F. Austin

Oral Roberts being here is something of an anomaly, as they have just one win of any significance, that being over Stephen F. Austin in the league opener. The Golden Eagles may be league title contenders, but they aren’t legitimate contenders for an at-large bid. The aforementioned SFA probably thought they’d be sitting pretty with earlier wins over Rice and LSU in non-conference play. Unfortunately for them, Rice has been a sizable disappointment, while LSU’s probably going to provide less help in the RPI than anticipate. An intriguing matchup with Texas still remains, but even if SFA runs the table the rest of the way in the regular season, I think they’re going to fall short without the auto bid.

Summit
-Lock: Denver

Denver’s probably as good as in with wins over Colorado College, Colorado, and BYU, meaning they’ll be more of an interesting case study in seeding philosophy if they keep winning. Conferences as weak as the Summit League don’t get seeds. But then again, conferences like the Summit League don’t get clubs as good as Denver. The real question is what happens to the Pioneers’ RPI as they continue to dominate the Summit League. The last four regular season opponents (and indeed all of the other teams in the league) all have uRPI’s below 200. That’s obviously not the best of signs for a club hoping to stay high up in the rankings as conceivably possible to try and sneak away with a national seed.

Sun Belt
-Bubble: Western Kentucky

The Hilltoppers can brag about a draw with Tennessee in non-conference play, but the rest of the club’s form before Sun Belt games started pretty much buried its hopes of an at-large bid. WKY’s on the fringe already, and there’s not much left in conference play that’s going to help them climb to the degree they need to to get in the mix. Based on early evidence though, they should be a heavy favorite to walk away with the league’s auto bid anyway.

WCC
-Lock: Santa Clara
-Bubble: Portland, BYU, Pepperdine

It’s a little less optimistic in the WCC this season, as the good teams are good, the bad teams are really bad, and there’s little room in between. Santa Clara right in the mix for a national seed, but I’m bearish on their chances of a top two seed due to a dearth of big results in comparison with other top clubs. They really need wins over Pepperdine and Portland to boost their odds. Portland’s lagging in the RPI a bit, but they’ve also got some big results earlier in the season and have already taken their RPI hits from Pacific and Loyola Marymount. I think a top two seed might be within reach if they run the table, which is easier said than done of course. BYU’s win over Nebraska earlier in the season is probably going to save their bacon, but they probably want to win five or six down the stretch to erase any doubt. Pepperdine might be in a fair amount of trouble. They could really use some big results from Cal and Texas A&M in the final weeks of the season, but the Waves also have to be eyeing their late season game at Santa Clara as a chance to net a big result and ease some of the pressure on them going into Selection Monday.

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